The first weekend of November typically kicks off with a big-budget blockbuster, but this year's offering from Disney, The Nutcracker and the Four Realms [NUTFR] has been tracking poorly. Instead, the mid-budget Bohemian Rhapsody [FREDI] will likely be the champion. The biopic about the rock band Queen stars Rami Malek [RMALE] as the late frontman Freddie Mercury. Although director Bryan Singer [BSING] was fired during production, it's unlikely to affect the non-privy public. Queen boasts a music catalog that remains a staple of rock radio. The PG-13 rated film turned out to be more of a crowd-pleaser than a hard-hitting look at Mercury who died of AIDS, so reviews from critics are mixed. Advance ticket sales are pacing ahead of A Star Is Born, which just debuted at $42.9 million, as well as the ABBA musical Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again, which opened at nearly $35 million in July. Rocking 4000 theaters, Bohemian Rhapsody should be able to do $39 million.
The Nutcracker and the Four Realms also replaced its director as Joe Johnston took over reshoots instead of original director Lasse Hallstrom [LHALS]. Unfortunately having two cooks is unlikely save the PG-rated film, which may have cost as much as $200 million. With a starry cast and CG spectacles, the fantasy targets families looking for Disney’s take on the classic E.T.A. Hoffmann story. Unfortunately, reviews that were embargoed until today are trending negative. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms could stir up $22 million from 3766 theaters.
Filmmaker Tyler Perry [TPERR] teams up with Tiffany Haddish [THADD] for the R-rated comedy Nobody’s Fool [THLST] targeted at urban moviegoers. Tyler Perry's last film, the R-rated Acrimony opened to $17 million in March. Nobody’s Fool could catch $15 million from 2468 locations.
Now that the holiday is over, Halloween [HALW3] is likely to settle for a third weekend around $13.5 million.
Hunter Killer [HNTKL] looks to dive more than 50% from its launch to about $3 million.
That’s the whisper on the virtual trading floor.
Tag(s): NUTFR, FREDI, RMALE, BSING, TPERR, THADD, THLST, HALW3, HNTKL