SPIN FACTOR® - The HSX Blog



Whisper Numbers: Dory may sink Independence Day



The summer of sequels continues with another long-in-the-making second film that comes more than a decade, or two decades in the case of Independence Day: Resurgence [IDAY2], after the original. However, Finding Dory [NEMO2] is likely to remain at the top after its record-breaking debut. Among recent Pixar sequels, 2013’s Monsters University declined 45% in its second weekend, 2010’s Toy Story 3 dropped 46% and 2011’s Cars 2 stalled at 60%. Finding Dory will likely decay at a similar rate to the better received sequels for a sophomore frame of $73 million.

20 years ago, Independence Day destroyed the White House and most of the world to become the top film of 1996. Director Roland Emmerich [REMME] finally follows up with Independence Day: Resurgence, albeit without its biggest star Will Smith. Jeff Goldblum [JGOLD] and Bill Pullman [BPULL] do return to lead young newcomers Liam Hemsworth [LHEMS] and Maika Monroe [MMONR] against another invasion with bigger spaceships, bigger aliens and bigger explosions. Fox hopes to capture moviegoers’ nostalgia similar to what Jurassic World did last year. However, that franchise has a monopoly on CG-dinosaurs, while Independence Day’s signature destruction of landmarks have been copied by countless blockbuster films over the last 20 years. Rather than trot out the actors on talk shows, Fox has stuck mainly to a viral marketing campaign, while foregoing screenings for critics that might have generated bad buzz. Blasting off in 4067 theaters, Independence Day: Resurgence may land $55 million.

Central Intelligence [CINTL] connected with its target audience, but did not overperform expectations. The action comedy could slide close to 50% to $18 million.

Perhaps sensing a weakness in the competition, Sony pushed up the release of The Shallows [SHALW] by a week. Blake Lively [BLIVE] is the lone star of the PG-13 rated shark survival thriller. While female teens and young adults are the primary demographics, The Shallows with its excellent reviews could attract older adults.  Riding into 2962 theaters, The Shallows could break out with $13 million.

Matthew McConaughey [MMCCO] toplines Free State of Jones [FSJON] based on real Civil War-era events. While the story could have made for an awards-worthy drama, STX is selling it like an action film. Poor reviews bear that out. Free State of Jones may declare $9 million from 2815 locations.

Amazon Studios and Broad Green open the R-rated thriller The Neon Demon [NEOND] in 786 theaters. Likely to appeal only to hipsters familiar with auteur Nicholas Winding Refn [NWREF], The Neon Demon could nab $2.5 million.

That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): IDAY2, NEMO2, REMME, JGOLD, BPULL, LHEMS, MMONR, CINTL, SHALW, BLIVE, MMCCO, FSJON, NEOND, NWREF

View more Blog posts »



By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, June 23, 2016 @ 03:40 PM        1666 views


Recent Comments

    No recent comments.


@HSXMOVIES on Twitter





Follow HSX on Twitter!

When You Finish Saving the World (WYFSW) 150000 9.79 (+0.35)         When You Finish Saving the World (WYFSW) 150000 9.79 (+0.35)         Justice Smith (JUSMI) 25000 96.16 (+0.25)         Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (MARBB) 150000 0.08 (+0.07)         The Owners (OWNRS) 101 0.03 (0.00)         Jeffrey Wright (JWRIG) 5000 73.19 (+0.20)         Mary J. Blige (MJBLI) 20000 28.09 (-0.18)         I'm Thinking of Ending Things (ITOET) 101 0.06 (0.00)         Wrath of Man (VGLNC) 1 24.23 (+1.54)         Jodie Turner-Smith (JTSMI) 20000 19.12 (-0.04)         Wrath of Man (VGLNC) 15000 24.23 (+1.54)         Justin Timberlake (JTIMB) 20000 35.63 (-0.08)         All My Life (ALMLF) 150000 18.62 (-0.37)         Juno Temple (JTEMP) 20000 35.29 (+0.08)         2 Hearts (2HRTS) 150000 3.03 (-0.17)         2 Hearts (2HRTS) 150000 3.03 (-0.17)         Mary J. Blige (MJBLI) 25000 28.09 (-0.18)         All My Life (ALMLF) 150000 18.62 (-0.37)         Bliss (BLISS) 50000 2.13 (-0.01)         Him esh Patel (HPATE) 5000 36.35 (-0.18)         Mother/Android (MTAND) 1 15.15 (+1.80)         Mother/Android (MTAND) 15000 15.15 (+1.80)         Wrath of Man (VGLNC) 10000 24.23 (+1.54)         Transformers: Cybertron prequel (TFCYB) 1 33.22 (+0.72)         Transformers: Cybertron prequel (TFCYB) 15000 33.22 (+0.72)         2020 Senate Option - Democrats (SENDEM) 1272 48.28 (-0.41)         Mother/Android (MTAND) 654 15.15 (+1.80)         Logan Marshall-Green (LMARS) 20000 42.23 (+0.04)         Clemence Poesy (CPOES) 5000 104.73 (0.00)         News of the World (NEWSW) 100000 29.12 (-0.07)         The Forever Purge aka The Last P (PURG5) 50000 24.68 (+0.13)         The Forever Purge aka The Last P (PURG5) 50000 24.68 (+0.13)         Death on the Nile (DNILE) 100000 34.72 (-0.05)         Ray Winstone (RWINS) 5000 35.55 (-0.08)         Wild Mountain Thyme (WMTHY) 100000 6.83 (-0.03)         Claire Foy (CFOY) 50 7.34 (0.00)         Wonder Woman 3 (WOND3) 25592 152.48 (+0.05)         Love and Monsters (MNSTP) 100000 1.19 (0.00)         Jodie Comer (JCOME) 4 70.94 (-0.25)         Jessica Henwick (JHENW) 4 18.19 (-0.08)         Black Panther II (BPNT2) 50000 273.99 (0.00)         Five Eyes (5EYES) 50000 23.03 (+0.51)         The Batman (TBATM) 5000 205.77 (-0.49)         Stillwater (STLWT) 50000 11.02 (-0.13)         Him esh Patel (HPATE) 5 36.35 (-0.18)         Five Eyes (5EYES) 50000 23.03 (+0.51)         Maggie Smith (MSMTH) 6 33.29 (-0.20)         Wonder Woman 1984 (WOND2) 5000 199.77 (-0.64)         Carrie Coon (CCOON) 40 94.00 (0.00)         Cyrano (CYRNO) 150000 20.89 (-0.02)