SPIN FACTOR® - The HSX Blog



Whisper Numbers: Rogue One, standing by.



A year after Star Wars: The Force Awakens obliterated the opening weekend box office record, Disney returns to the same galaxy far, far away with the spin-off Rogue One: A Star Wars Story [SW16]. While The Force Awakens was a sequel to Return of the Jedi, Rogue One is a prequel set immediately prior to the original Star Wars: A New Hope. Felicity Jones [FJONE] stars as the lead rebel on a suicide mission to steal the plans to the Death Star, which we all know was successfully transmitted to Princess Leia. Though none of the original actors appear, Rogue One does feature the return of Darth Vader, arguably the greatest cinematic villain ever. Star Wars fans will be out in force as advanced sales on Fandango are only second to The Force Awakens, which opened to $248 million. The Hunger Games was previously second at $152 million, which should be considered the minimum floor for Rogue One at this point. Reviews from critics have been stellar thus far. Though Rogue One may be targeted at adults, parents won’t be able to refuse their young children wanting to see the new Star Wars movie. Rogue One has the same PG-13 rating as The Force Awakens. Opening at a record 4157 theaters for December, Rogue One could generate $170 million.

Will Smith [WSMIT] toplines Collateral Beauty [COLBT] target at older adults not interested in Star Wars. Unfortunately, the PG-13 rated drama has earned some of the worst reviews of the year. Fandango presales are ahead of Concussion, which opened to $10.5 million last year. Collateral Beauty may collect just $11 million from 3028 theaters.

Moana [MOANA] should be able to belt out another $10 million for its fourth weekend. Meanwhile, Office Christmas Party [OFCPT] could drop 45% in its second weekend to $9 million.

After picking up a slew of awards and nominations this week, Manchester by the Sea [MBTSE] expands wide to 1208 theaters. The R-rated drama has banked more than $9 million during 4 weeks of limited release. Glowing reviews and excellent word of mouth will continue to drive traffic to the Roadside Attraction release. Manchester by the Sea may bring in $5 million.

That’s the whisper on the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): SW16, FJONE, WSMIT, COLBT, MOANA, OFCPT, MBTSE

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, December 15, 2016 @ 03:15 PM        1229 views


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