HOLLYWOOD STOCK EXCHANGE
THE ENTERTAINMENT MARKET
THE ENTERTAINMENT MARKET
But I am a noob, not trying to hide anything. What about the post-AVNGR slump?
Assumption 1: There's no chirping, the post-AVNGR slump is a reality. It was somewhat broken by SWHTM. Also, partial explanation of Assumption 2, for the slump is that peoples pockets were lighter from seeing AVNGR.
Assumption 2: Zero sum, or near to it, does not mean play to break even. Your gains are based on the spread between player sentiment on a Movie stock based on the actual portion of the zero sum that a movie grosses. So let's say the total pot is $100M, and MADG3 gets $60M with PROME making $40M, at the end. But people think that PROME will do better than MADG3, and MADG3 trades at $45, and PROME trades at $55. If I long MADG3 and short PROME, I will make money, even though at the end the total gross is still $100M. I made money on the spread.
Assumption 3: We'll have to agree to disagree on this one. The IPO prices are based on HSX models, so in effect they are starting on a level playing field regardless of when each IPOs. Market analysis are used to predict weekend grosses based on models based on seasonality all the time. You can estimate gross by seasonality, for instance. A long weekend will gross higher than a regular weekend. Summer is higher than dead of winter, etc.
I'm not saying I know it all. Just building models in my mind to be able to apply some kind of method to the madness. ;-)
With so many billionaires, and near billionaires in this game, do little investors like myself really affect the game? {nm} Jun 06, 13:55
Yes, because billionaires cannot buy more shares of a stock than you can. {nm} Jun 06, 14:02
Yes.. But they cannot affect individual stock movement more than you.. and you play "short" OR "long" not simultaneously {nm} Jun 06, 16:47
You can play short AND long. For instance I feel that MADG3 is too low, so play long and if I feel that MADG3 will take a bite Jun 06, 17:44
? Jun 06, 17:56
Yes, sometimes, I scare myself. Here's the logic: Jun 06, 18:09
But they aren't dependent on each other like that. You're returning to your zero-sum supposition, which doesn't hold here. Jun 06, 18:23
There's definitely a correlation in gross for a weekend between the grosses of movies opening the same weekend. Jun 06, 18:34
This is true. And I would take that approach in real life, since I want to be efficient and get my job done quickly. Jun 07, 06:59
lot of jumps in logic Jun 06, 18:26
Wish it was all logic based, but we're talking consumer behaviour, and statistical analysis... Jun 06, 18:49
see, that's where you always sound like such a noob Jun 06, 19:00
But I am a noob, not trying to hide anything. What about the post-AVNGR slump? Jun 06, 19:18
*banging head on desk* {nm} Jun 06, 19:55
Please, no need to hurt yourself over me. ;-) {nm} Jun 06, 20:10
I'd argue the point but its kind of pointless Jun 06, 23:56
Thought that was what I was doing, asking question, through out some ideas, getting responses. Jun 07, 07:58
it only happens when someone doesn't honestly have a question Jun 07, 09:55
Not to belabor a point, but stock performances are not linked in a zero sum fashion... even if you think they are. Jun 07, 10:21
I promise you that unless they inherited a port, every billionaire started off with a $2M just like you did. Jun 06, 14:04
Every investor is sacred, every investor is great Jun 06, 14:13
I know I am, but my who portfolio is probably what you would commission on a trade. ;-) {nm} Jun 06, 15:20
Must be late on my payments, my ISP is skipping words and letters. {nm} Jun 06, 15:34
That was a beautiful sentence. :) {nm} Jun 06, 17:36
Duh, henglish, I lern good time. {nm} Jun 06, 18:13
Easy for you to say. {nm} Jun 06, 17:40
