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Playing & Trading Strategy

Now finishing 1st version of my HSX Excel tools. My formulas ideas, your thoughts and suggestions.

Posted by: Smartlink on Feb 05, 14:34

Greetings;

Well I am still trying to get more and more envolved in the game and it's community as some of you already know. When I started playing more seriously I started playing around with various excel tables and formulas that could help me out. I tought it would be great to share it with you all. 

So far I am working with the 6 diffrent sheets, for better structure. Right now my Derivatives OW and BW sheets are looking good and make accurate projections. For the BW options, it just calculates if the specific BW are currently ABR using current box office result and/or projected result when available I am working on a multiplier for the opening weekend that could help with BW. I also keep track of my Gross Gain on each to get Net invesment and therefore net profit. 

The OW portion is working good also thus far. I enter manually the .OW stock prices as well as put and call strike prices and current stock price.. Then using box office prediction avrage from 5 sources (Assasin's, HSXblog, Guru .. ...), I get the + or - change between options and current price plus an indication to buy or short each options. Been tracking past month releases and so far it is accurate, it did not predict exact figures but always predicted right way to bet on options.

To get "OW Change": Cell B4 = Avg Prediction - Current .OW stock price

Then I use this for Buy/Short indicator in the next cell =IF(B4="";"";IF(B4<=0,01;"Short OW ;IF(B4>=0,01;"Buy OW";)))  B4 would be cell with call change result

To get the "Call Change": C4= (Avg Prediction - Strick Price) - Call Stock Price 

Then use same indicator formula mentioned above. (but using C4)

To get the "Put Change": D4= (Strick Price- Avg Prediction) - Put Stock Price 

Then use same indicator formula mentioned above. (but using D4)

I also use a few conditional formating rules to change the color of certain cells. I also use the following custom number in cell formating (color10)+0,00;(Red)-0,00;;@ note that () are brackets. This will display in positive result in a cell green with a plus sign and all negative numbers red with minus sign

Now working on Movie Stock and Star Bond sheets as well as a networth sheet to keep track of various stats. I will share my ideas and formulas with you when I get somewhere. Any toughts or ideas so far?





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Twilight of the Dead (TWOTD) 150000 3.18 (-0.36)          Turpentine (TURPN) 150000 7.26 (-0.27)          Zi (ZI) 150000 0.63 (+0.03)          Zi (ZI) 150000 0.63 (+0.03)          The Housemaid's Secret (HMAI2) 100 98.03 (+0.16)          Lords of War (LRDW2) 1 10.37 (+0.60)          The Gauntlet (GNTLT) 100 30.64 (+0.26)          John Wick Prequel (WICK0) 100 28.55 (+0.43)          The Hole (THHOL) 100 6.42 (+0.60)          They Know (TKNOW) 100 13.94 (+0.87)          John Wick Prequel (WICK0) 150000 28.55 (+0.43)          Godzilla Minus Zero - Opening We (GODM2.OW) 100000 32.26 (+0.42)          How to Rob a Bank H$15 Put (HTRAB.PU) 25000 2.80 (0.00)          Godzilla Minus Zero (GODM2) 150000 77.89 (+0.52)          I Play Rocky H$15 Call (IPROC.CA) 25000 3.01 (-0.06)          Lords of War (LRDW2) 100000 10.37 (+0.60)          They Know (TKNOW) 10000 13.94 (+0.87)          Tyrant (TYRNT) 100000 21.63 (+0.91)          Drag (DRAG) 150000 5.29 (-0.26)          The Gallerist (GALRS) 150000 5.74 (-0.45)          Father Joe (FTJOE) 150000 7.15 (-0.27)          Lords of War (LRDW2) 150000 10.37 (+0.60)          The Decline Of Fucking Western C (DOFWC) 150000 5.06 (+0.81)          They Know (TKNOW) 150000 13.94 (+0.87)          The Hole (THHOL) 150000 6.42 (+0.60)          The Hole (THHOL) 150000 6.42 (+0.60)          Twilight of the Dead (TWOTD) 150000 3.18 (-0.36)          Twilight of the Dead (TWOTD) 150000 3.18 (-0.36)          Turpentine (TURPN) 150000 7.26 (-0.27)          Turpentine (TURPN) 150000 7.26 (-0.27)          Tyrant (TYRNT) 150000 21.63 (+0.91)          Outside Man (OUTSM) 150000 9.77 (+0.65)          Madden (MADEN) 150000 1.61 (-0.02)          Outside Man (OUTSM) 150000 9.77 (+0.65)          Godzilla Minus Zero H$35 Put (GODM2.PU) 25000 2.75 (-0.08)          Godzilla Minus Zero H$35 Put (GODM2.PU) 25000 2.75 (-0.08)          Godzilla Minus Zero H$35 Call (GODM2.CA) 25000 1.50 (+0.06)          Godzilla Minus Zero H$35 Call (GODM2.CA) 25000 1.50 (+0.06)          Godzilla Minus Zero - Opening We (GODM2.OW) 100000 32.26 (+0.42)          Godzilla Minus Zero - Opening We (GODM2.OW) 100000 32.26 (+0.42)          Godzilla Minus Zero H$35 Put (GODM2.PU) 25000 2.75 (-0.08)          Godzilla Minus Zero H$35 Call (GODM2.CA) 25000 1.50 (+0.06)          Godzilla Minus Zero H$35 Call (GODM2.CA) 25000 1.50 (+0.06)          Godzilla Minus Zero H$35 Put (GODM2.PU) 25000 2.75 (-0.08)          Godzilla Minus Zero H$35 Put (GODM2.PU) 25000 2.75 (-0.08)          Godzilla Minus Zero H$35 Call (GODM2.CA) 25000 1.50 (+0.06)          Godzilla Minus Zero - Opening We (GODM2.OW) 100000 32.26 (+0.42)          Godzilla Minus Zero - Opening We (GODM2.OW) 100000 32.26 (+0.42)          I Play Rocky (IPROC) 150000 50.73 (-0.10)          How To Rob A Bank (HTRAB) 150000 38.31 (-0.21)