HOLLYWOOD STOCK EXCHANGE
THE ENTERTAINMENT MARKET
THE ENTERTAINMENT MARKET
It is not at all an efficient market. Most of the traders that will play them already have. Hard to move the market when there aren't many
trades
PoliticOption prices: BIDEN + TRUMP = HORDEM + HORREP + SENDEM + SENREP = 538 is what we would naively Sep 16, 17:51
Oops -- forgot to add 3 to account for DC electoral votes. (nm) Sep 16, 17:53
I.e., HORDEM + HORREP + SENDEM + SENREP + 3 = 538 {nm} Sep 16, 18:01
Oh, there it is: "Independents who caucus ... do not count." Silly me. (nm) Sep 16, 18:10
Because this is an open market. Prices are determined by traders and what they think will happen vs. current prices. Sep 17, 18:10
Well, of course, but my point was that the arb hasn't been a stronger factor. (nm) Sep 18, 15:40
I guess I needed to have explicitly explained that point to avoid misunderstanding. Sorry. (nm) Sep 18, 15:46
It is not at all an efficient market. Most of the traders that will play them already have. Hard to move the market when there aren't many Sep 19, 20:32
