HOLLYWOOD STOCK EXCHANGE
THE ENTERTAINMENT MARKET
THE ENTERTAINMENT MARKET
Dusting off an old Report - Box Office Prediction Site Accuracies (Including HSX)
This is for all weekends up to last weekend starting with September 18th*. The formula used to calculate accuracy is a standard 1 - (Error). Error is calculated as (Absolute Value(Prediction - Actuals)) / Actuals. The HSX Accuracy is calculated by projecting the prediction for each film to see if it indicated an HSX long or short. The percentages are the amount of time the prediction site is right calling the openers over the period of time.
2009 (Since September 18th)
| 1. | BOF | 78.78% |
| 2. | BOG | 76.17% |
| 3. | AVE | 75.38% |
| 4. | HSX | 70.88% |
| 5. | Lee | 70.47% |
| 6. | WW | 67.95% |
| 7. | TBO | 67.42% |
| 8. | BOP | 66.37% |
HSX Accuracy
| 1. | BOF | 87.50% |
| 2. | AVE | 68.75% |
| 3. | WW | 62.50% |
| 4. | BOP | 62.50% |
| 5. | Lee | 56.25% |
| 6. | BOG | 56.25% |
| 7. | TBO | 40.00% |
BOF - Box Office Follower (http://piaofang.blogspot.com/)
BOG - Box Office Guru (http://www.boxofficeguru.com/)
AVE - Average of all predictions
HSX - The HSX 'prediction' of (Halt Price - Previous) / Applicable Multiplier
Lee - Lee's Movie Info (http://www.leesmovieinfo.net/)
WW - Weekend Warrior (http://www.comingsoon.net)
TBO - Twitter Box Office (http://www.twitterboxoffice.com/)
BOP - Box Office Prophets (http://www.boxofficeprophets.com/)
*Notes. Only have data for Twitter Box Office since Oct. 9th (5 openers).
Dusting off an old Report - Box Office Prediction Site Accuracies (Including HSX) Oct 24, 10:21
What about MTC and RS? {nm} Oct 24, 10:47
Good point, I don't have data from past weeks for that. Could you provide the week of data for them? {nm} Oct 24, 10:51
I'm pretty sure I have RS... let me see what I have for MTC. It might be a lot "backboarding" though... Oct 24, 10:53
These should suffice Oct 24, 11:02
Sorry for not clarifying; the first link contains results from September, the second from October. Oct 24, 11:05
That's great, thanks! {nm} Oct 24, 11:09
Thanks for that. Looks like *we* aren't so bad. {nm} Oct 24, 11:04
Updated numbers including MTC and RS Oct 24, 15:12
