Movies

RS 2 Guns high 30s Smurfs mid to high 30s notfabio Jul 28, 18:22

Thanks notfabio, finally RS feels within the ballpark. How long will it last. My WOLV2 predict went to hell but not by much. Onward to 2GUNS {nm} eallensbp Jul 28, 19:23

I like 2GUNS for $38-$42M; heh, I actually am serious about my SMRF2 predict of mid-20s OW, MAYBE $35M five-day. Maybe. {nm} eallensbp Jul 28, 19:26

I was amazed at the three-day 35.6M opening of SMURF in July 2011, and impressed by its 142M domestic total. second gary Jul 28, 19:29

hmmm, Smurfs opened to 35M two years ago and had a 4 multiplier from OW thru the domestic run. lobogotti Jul 28, 19:34

I fully expect an Alvin-like following. A sub 30M 5day I assume would be considered a failure by the studio. {nm} lobogotti Jul 28, 19:37

Not this time, lobo. Franchise fatigue has already set in. I keep looking for signs that SMRF2 will overperform, and am coming up empty. {nm} eallensbp Jul 28, 19:59

will be interesting to see. I really can't stand mid-week openings, but like I said I'll be shocked at a sub 40 5da. lobogotti Jul 28, 20:05

Yep. Right you are. And, I am with you on mid-week openings, don't like them much myself. Throws my predict off a little. {nm} eallensbp Jul 28, 20:17

I have not seen the first one, but what makes you say that "franchise fatigue has already set in"? second gary Jul 28, 20:25

p.s. Again, the studio doesn't think it has, inasmuch as SMRF3 has a 2015 release date. Smurfs vs. Superman summer. {nm} second gary Jul 28, 20:26

Smurfs vs Superman vs Avengers 2 vs Star Wars 7 vs Terminator Reboot vs Independence Day 2 vs Pirates of the Caribbean 5 {nm} RazorHawk Jul 28, 20:34

now that's some competition! Never been a bigger summer than 2015 is shaping. {nm} lobogotti Jul 28, 20:38

That's the business, second gary. Lionsgate has dated three Hunger Games movies, ALVN3 limped to $100M but has a date for the 4th . . . eallensbp Jul 28, 20:39

I would distinguish between a tentpole having a release date 24 months out, and a non-tentpole (like SMRF3) having one 24 mos. out. second gary Jul 28, 21:28

Great post, second gary. In SMRF2's case--and, BTW, I'm obviously not a fanboy, either--the formula plot will repel as opposed to attract. {nm} eallensbp Jul 28, 22:14

Like lobogotti said, we could be in for a surprise, but I am looking at lots of indicators now, and none of them hints at "breakout". {nm} eallensbp Jul 28, 22:16

I wouldn't call $133 limping to $100 but I see your point. {nm} austpow Jul 28, 21:39

second gary, you touched upon the problem with SMRF2. "It aims to be formulaic . . . and succeeds". Ergo, diminished returns. eallensbp Jul 28, 20:33

On the slim chance SMRF2 overperforms, it's frontloading. So I'd expect massive 2nd wkend drops, on the level of DVNSD. {nm} eallensbp Jul 28, 20:04

This is either highly irresponsible or just plain stupid. No major release kids film has ever had close to a drop like DVNSD 76.2% islander Jul 29, 09:25

Tagging [2guns] high 30s, [SMRF2] mid to high 30s {nm} karspov Jul 28, 20:25