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AVATAR Projections
With so much attention being paid to Avatar's eventual trumping of Titanic as box office king, I ran some numbers to see exactly where this beast of a movie might actually end up. Here's the general criteria I used:
1. Avatar is unique so meaningful comparisons to other movies can't be made
2. In terms of attendance (repeat, lack of competition), the only movie that it can be compared to is Titanic
3. Diminishing BO will be primarily based on competition rather than fatigue with Avatar itself
That said: It's currently at $561,317,000
In this same frame 12 years ago, Titanic gained 2.6% at the BO with no major releases. I think Avatar will ~27% this wkend with Gibson's opener taking some away. Extrapolating this to a 30% decay for weekday numbers gives:
Avatar (7th)- $25,509,000....... $586,826,000 + $3,156,000 (Thurs) = $589,982,000
Mon-Thurs- $8,912,000 = $598,893,000
Avatar (8th)- No real competition. Down 20% (Oscar Nom effect)....$20,407,000= $619,300,000
Mon-Thurs- down 15%...$7,575,000= $626,875,000
Avatar (9th)- Again, niche marketing...no real competiton. Another good hold down 15%...$17,345,000= $644,221,000
Mon-Thur- Down 20%....$6,060,000= $650,281,000
Avatar (10th)- Shutter Island opens. Avatar loses #1 spot. Falls a hefty but respectable 40%...$10,407,000= $660,688,000
Mon-Thur- Down 25%...$4,545,000= $654,846,000
Avatar (11th)- Remains solid. Relatively unchanged at $10M= $664,846,000
Mon-Thur- Down 10%...$4,090,000= $668,936,000
Avatar (12th) Alice opens. Major fall as screens lost. Down 50% to $5M= $673,936,000
Decays 50% a week from here, factoring that Avatar will NOT win Director or Picture at that weekend's Oscars and that even if it does have a good showing, screens would have been tethered to Alice anyway. $9M decaying cumulatively at 50% gives a total of $18M.
Avatar ends up with $690-$700M
Estimating that this represents ~27% of worldwide box office (foreign gross is exceeding domestic by far now), foreign gross comes in at $1,865-$1,900M
TOTAL GROSS= $2,500M-$2,600M, which, adjusted for inflation will fall about 15% short of Titanic.
Comments? (besides those alluding to the obvious excess of time with which i had nothing to do, tonight ;) )
AVATAR Projections Jan 28, 20:35
Speak for yourself. {nm} Jan 28, 20:49
I care. It may be another 11 years before something like this comes along again. Its fun to watch records being broken. {nm} Jan 28, 20:57
I was there for both Titanic and Avatar in my lifetime...awesome {nm} Jan 28, 21:27
Interesting precis. You have quantified future adjustments quite well, IMHO, albeit that Jan 28, 20:53