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True.
Although "sometimes" is an important modifier here.
I watched only the last 15-20 minutes of The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus, and from that felt quite certain that the exchange had overpriced it (hovering around 30M somewhere). So I became a bit vocal about that, but nothing helped until theater counts started coming out etc.
But with very hyped movies like ALICE, it's easy to get disappointed and that disappointment channels out like relatively low predictions on OW take.
There were some immediate haters towards Avatar as well. But if they hadn't been force-fed lots of hype before seeing it, perhaps they'd have come out mildly positive instead(?)
im sure this is going to shock everyone... Weekend warrior predicts below $75mil open for aliceinwonderland Mar 02, 09:07
I know I'm shocked. {nm} Mar 02, 09:33
haters gon' hate {nm} Mar 02, 09:36
He's actually seen it, though. Mar 02, 10:53
Watching a flick sometimes makes it harder to predict. {nm} Mar 02, 10:59
True. Mar 02, 11:16
After some mathmatical calculation with Chocolate Factory, I do think $80m opening is guaranteed Mar 02, 09:55
Calculation against what? Trackings? Adv sales? {nm} Mar 02, 09:59
Sadly, I only have the week AFTER Charlie tracking for comparison... but it's generally in that same Avatar/Star Trek range. Mar 02, 10:40
Seems reviews matter less and less though - especially in this last year or so Mar 02, 10:50
I agree the legs will be short due to divided WOM and Burton's natural frontloadedness, but it won't affect the opening Mar 02, 11:16
he's off his rocker. sub 75 + midnights + 3d screens + IMAX {nm} Mar 02, 14:42