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FWIW, I’ve always played the players, not the game

Posted by: TheDowIsUp on Mar 11, 14:45 in response to goodvibe61's post We're all a little dumber after reading how Deadline,...

I rarely try to estimate BO. Instead I try to determine how the fanboys will over/under-value the stock. It’s been good enough for #45 all time (so far). 

We're all a little dumber after reading how Deadline, THR, V, and BOXO botch the weekend box office time after time after.... goodvibe61 Mar 11, 10:49

There is a possible reason for this week's estimation. There are so many factors that go into box office projection and prediction. Catzan Mar 11, 12:05

Hint, "the whatever reason" it's RT review, critics and audience explain, it's bad, boring, repetitive, confusing, and Baron_Darcon2017 Mar 11, 12:29

Tomorrowland had the same Fri-Sun $33m OW, had better RT and Audience scores and the same Cinemascore of B and delisted at $83m tomcat90 Mar 11, 13:01

Tomorrowland had summer, Wrinkle might get a few field trips... next week will seal its fate. {nm} Baron_Darcon2017 Mar 11, 13:19

have you been even close to correct with any of your white-male box office doomsday predictions yet? {nm} slipping jimmy Mar 11, 14:11

Yup, making a killing betting against leftist movies. TLJ damaged SW brand. Id run a movie fund, youd see but Antibody wont let me. {nm} Baron_Darcon2017 Mar 11, 15:46

You shorted Black Panther? {nm} Catzan Mar 11, 15:57

Nope. The villian killmonger is a SJW from Commifornia, besides its a Marvel movie, not wise to bet against that. {nm} Baron_Darcon2017 Mar 11, 16:11

the courage of your convictions is pretty impressive {nm} slipping jimmy Mar 11, 16:34

During Panther's OW, you stated the "high water" delist mark was $440 & followed-up by saying you missed adjust (implying no legs to come). {nm} 15-May-2007 Mar 11, 17:44

Reference page... on 2/14 I said 490M when BP was forcast at 181M OW Aljust are for multiple things, personal day records and Baron_Darcon2017 Mar 11, 19:21

You're quoting your own 2/14 adjust miscalculation, which you quickly corrected to $398m, before predicting a max $440m delist on 2/17. {nm} 15-May-2007 Mar 11, 20:08

No I said if OW was 187M then delist of 440M based on AVERAGE Marvel performance of 2.36, as we all know OW 242 I was giving reliable compar Baron_Darcon2017 Mar 11, 22:04

Yawn, you also wrote Panther had "not a chance" to close above Last Jedi, dismissing the point slipping jimmy and I were making. {nm} 15-May-2007 Mar 11, 23:18

Yeah that was on 2/19 but by 2/22 I said it would. Thought it'd be frontloaded like most other superhero movies. So what? {nm} Baron_Darcon2017 Mar 11, 23:35

LMAO! You know...when something is red...you can't just say it is yellow because you say so. Not every movie that addresses social injustice Catzan Mar 11, 17:48

Watch: Why BP is Alt Right and Wakanda's an Ethnostate........ Baron_Darcon2017 Mar 11, 19:47

have you told actual black people this? stand outside a BP screening when it lets out and show them the truth {nm} slipping jimmy Mar 11, 20:22

Do you deny any points made in the video?? It's spot on. Wakanda is walled off, anti-immigrant-anti globalist, anti-refugee {nm} Baron_Darcon2017 Mar 11, 21:54

Oh, I get it...you didn't stay to watch the end credit scene. You know, where BP realizes he must tear down those walls, enter the global Catzan Mar 12, 05:32

Watch Film Theorists discussion on the economics of Wakanda and vibranium. Isolation is bad but nationalism is good. BP Baron_Darcon2017 Mar 12, 11:11

Oh and I have discussed BP with my black Physics students, Did you know originally BP left Wakanda to study Physics? {nm} Baron_Darcon2017 Mar 11, 23:37

I actually created 3 black superheroes for my friends comic company, inspirational characters, used my black students for feedback. {nm} Baron_Darcon2017 Mar 12, 12:25

A movie made for kids is not entertaining to adults - Why is that surprising anyone? {nm} JDolphin Mar 11, 13:08

Lol, BS, 4 quad films are exactly that.!! It's the opposite, adult movies don't entertain kids.This isn't teletubbies. {nm} Baron_Darcon2017 Mar 11, 13:16

Then why are the CinemaScores for kids much higher than adults. Under 25 A-, over 25 B- {nm} JDolphin Mar 11, 14:27

Movies like Toys Story, Shrek, Harry Potter, are equally beloved, .....poor writing, directing is the difference. {nm} Baron_Darcon2017 Mar 11, 14:33

Not all movies made for kids also entertain adults. You've learned a lesson. {nm} JDolphin Mar 11, 14:39

Who said it was a 4-quad film? The director says it's made for kids. The reviews I've seen that like it are saying it's for kids {nm} JDolphin Mar 11, 14:32

Haven't seen the movie yet but have heard guest feedback that they enjoyed it. Currently the 34% uptick Fri to Sat is a ton better than Catzan Mar 11, 13:27

Pete's Dragon opened in the summer. Kids off school = smaller Sat bump {nm} warcraft86 Mar 11, 13:31

True but even for summer 20.7% Fri to Sat is kinda low. Goosebumps October opening has a similar 32% increase with a 72/62% rating opening Catzan Mar 11, 15:09

FWIW, I’ve always played the players, not the game TheDowIsUp Mar 11, 14:45

+1. leo21 Mar 11, 15:23

You don't have to play the players. When Roger More was keeping tract of the predictions - avg was abt 70%. So this was a time they missed JDolphin Mar 11, 14:49

Though I tracked predictions made before the movie opened, while goodvibe is talking about DL, V, etc's estimates based on Th previews and MBAY si Mar 11, 15:16

Ha ha, you're over-estimating the amount of analysis publications like Deadline, THR, V, etc do. They don't do any! Roger More Mar 11, 15:52

I think the studio or factor you allude is a major factor in Disney box office reporting {nm} Moviesnob Mar 11, 18:58

Pr not or {nm} Moviesnob Mar 11, 18:59





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