HSX Forum

Movies

Reply Topic List All Forums

report abuse

Ha ha, you're over-estimating the amount of analysis publications like Deadline, THR, V, etc do. They don't do any!

Posted by: Roger More (a.k.a RogerMore) on Mar 11, 15:52 in response to goodvibe61's post We're all a little dumber after reading how Deadline,...

The journalists are there to write column inches, not run spreadsheets. What they do is call an inside contact at one of the studios or maybe a theatre chain, and get their data of how the movie is doing on Thursday and Friday and their opinion of what that means for the weekend, and repeat it verbatim.

But it also comes down to extrapolating numbers for the weekend from early matinee #s. Audiences who see movies on Friday morning aren't representative of the Friday night audience.

Taking AWITM as a specific example, an OW of $37-40M is pretty much in line with what you'd expect from a Friday of $12-14M (including Th previews of $1.3M). Taking that Friday estimate, netting the Th preview number, multiplying it by the IM experienced for similar movies (I used PDRGN, MALEF, JNGLB, ALCN2, 1952 and others), and then adding the Th # back in gets a projection in the $35-45 range ($35 being $12 * lowest comparison IM, $45 is $14M * highest comparison IM).

The issue is really that the prediction that AWITM would earn $12-14M based on previews and matinees was off. I think there are two things to consider here.

First of all, like you suggest, the person making the effort might not have put much thought into the projection. AWITM isn't a Friday night movie - it's a kids movie and a family movie. But the person doing the projetion may have just applied the same extrapolation he does for every movie.

The second thing to consider is there's a strong incentive to not be the first to report that #s are lower than expected. If there's early reporting that the movie is underperforming/bad it's the messenger that's blamed, not the people who made the underperforming/bad movie. There's an incentive for the journalist/their source to soft-pedal the early prediction with a justifiable # which can later be corrected when the real #s are available. We often see estimates adjusted downwards as the weekend progresses

But your real complaint is about the impact this has on HSX prices, and I can't give you much guidance there beyond "follow the price movements" if you're an active player and "invest for how it will be priced on Sunday" if you're not.

There is another rule I go by - if a movie's weekend estimate is lower on Saturday morning than it was in Friday evening, it's going to be even lower on Sunday.

We're all a little dumber after reading how Deadline, THR, V, and BOXO botch the weekend box office time after time after.... goodvibe61 Mar 11, 10:49

There is a possible reason for this week's estimation. There are so many factors that go into box office projection and prediction. Catzan Mar 11, 12:05

Hint, "the whatever reason" it's RT review, critics and audience explain, it's bad, boring, repetitive, confusing, and Baron_Darcon2017 Mar 11, 12:29

Tomorrowland had the same Fri-Sun $33m OW, had better RT and Audience scores and the same Cinemascore of B and delisted at $83m tomcat90 Mar 11, 13:01

Tomorrowland had summer, Wrinkle might get a few field trips... next week will seal its fate. {nm} Baron_Darcon2017 Mar 11, 13:19

have you been even close to correct with any of your white-male box office doomsday predictions yet? {nm} slipping jimmy Mar 11, 14:11

Yup, making a killing betting against leftist movies. TLJ damaged SW brand. Id run a movie fund, youd see but Antibody wont let me. {nm} Baron_Darcon2017 Mar 11, 15:46

You shorted Black Panther? {nm} Catzan Mar 11, 15:57

Nope. The villian killmonger is a SJW from Commifornia, besides its a Marvel movie, not wise to bet against that. {nm} Baron_Darcon2017 Mar 11, 16:11

the courage of your convictions is pretty impressive {nm} slipping jimmy Mar 11, 16:34

During Panther's OW, you stated the "high water" delist mark was $440 & followed-up by saying you missed adjust (implying no legs to come). {nm} 15-May-2007 Mar 11, 17:44

Reference page... on 2/14 I said 490M when BP was forcast at 181M OW Aljust are for multiple things, personal day records and Baron_Darcon2017 Mar 11, 19:21