HSX Forum

Movies

This is a much smoke as the posts above. INCPT would have to have

Posted by: H-Mogul on Jul 21, 14:13 in response to grammar's post To be taken seriously, one has to supply some sort of...

declines of 60% both weekend and weekdays to make this price.  Also that hasn't been updated with the weekdays. With the 1st weekend holds and the great WOM I don't see this happening. There is not one numbers person here that didn't do this before we got Monday est/act, it gives you an idea of how to play the post adjust movements in relation to what maybe the eventual delist.

Assuming that it does $9M Wed and Thurs and use that as a base and we just do declines of 50% weekday and weekends you get a delist of $192. 

To get a delist of $240 INCPT would need a hold of 30% all things being equal. Which is a better multiple then Dragon had earlier this year. It won't get the young sub 13, it will get adults that don't go first weekend and wait for what their friends and critics, and those that tend only to go to event movies. Plus those that have to see it again so they can figure it out. :)

Now of course the only big mindf*** movie I can think of off the top of my head is "The Sixth Sense" it had massive holds I don't think INCPT will get anywhere near those holds.

Remember that your mileage may vary.  But everybody is going to be watching for  the early Friday numbers.





Post a Reply

To post to the forums you must first login!


They Will Kill You (TWKYU) 4 24.32 (-0.02)          Ric Roman Waugh (RRWAU) 25000 26.97 (+0.18)          Ready or Not 2: Here I Come (RONO2) 4 31.66 (-0.04)          NBC: The Fall and Rise of Reggie (FARORD) 25000 9.95 (+0.24)          Project Hail Mary (PRJHM) 3 192.06 (+0.50)          Reminders of Him (RMNDH) 4 23.23 (-0.04)          Hoppers (HOPPR) 4 147.07 (+0.13)          Outcome (OUTCM) 150000 7.63 (-2.23)          GOAT H$25 Call Fri-Mon (TGOAT.CA) 25000 2.87 (+0.06)          The Bride! (BRIDE) 15 44.84 (+0.23)          Scream 7 (SCRM7) 8 82.07 (+0.53)          The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PRAD2) 200 176.69 (-0.34)          Roman Griffin Davis (RGDAV) 25000 36.60 (+0.01)          Dreams (DREMS) 1065 0.81 (0.00)          How to Make a Killing (HNGTN) 14 19.15 (-0.22)          Jennifer Hudson (JHUDS) 25000 66.34 (+0.50)          A Magnificent Life (MLOMP) 150000 1.00 (-0.02)          Reminders of Him (RMNDH) 1886 23.23 (-0.04)          Wuthering Heights (WUTHR) 5 88.19 (+0.27)          Good Luck, Have Fun, Don’t Die (GLHFD) 4 18.25 (-0.01)          Melania (MLNIA) 150000 14.13 (-0.75)          Supergirl (SUPGR) 150 181.47 (+0.28)          Cold Storage (CLDST) 1500 1.70 (0.00)          Nia DaCosta (NDACO) 25000 34.67 (0.00)          By Design (BYDSG) 60 0.29 (+0.01)          Reminders of Him (RMNDH) 3070 23.23 (-0.04)          Heel (HEEL) 150000 1.00 (0.00)          The Strangers: Chapter 3 (STRN5) 50 12.31 (+0.81)          The Strangers: Chapter 3 (STRN5) 80 12.31 (+0.81)          A Tree is Blue (ATBLU) 150000 5.32 (+1.11)          Send Help (SENDH) 10 46.30 (-0.29)          A Tree is Blue (ATBLU) 149999 5.32 (+1.11)          Send Help (SENDH) 10 46.30 (-0.29)          Full Phil (FPHIL) 150000 4.52 (+0.74)          How to Make a Killing (HNGTN) 30000 19.15 (-0.22)          The Moment (MOMNT) 10 9.05 (-0.08)          The Moment (MOMNT) 10 9.05 (-0.08)          28 Years Later: The Bone Temple (28LT4) 15 28.35 (-0.31)          Outcome (OUTCM) 150000 7.63 (-2.23)          4 Kids Walk Into a Bank (4KWIB) 61000 8.52 (+0.02)          Spider-Man: Brand New Day (SPID9) 350 420.81 (-0.02)          Josh O'Connor (JOOCO) 25000 10.83 (-0.35)          Crime 101 - Opening Weekend Fri- (CRIM1.OW) 100000 10.93 (+0.10)          The Super Mario Galaxy Movie (MARI2) 140 498.84 (+0.52)          Hokum (HOKUM) 30000 8.47 (+0.03)          The Bride! (BRIDE) 85 44.84 (+0.23)          Ciaran Hinds (CHIND) 25000 62.50 (+0.82)          Michael (MJACK) 200 170.96 (+0.88)          The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PRAD2) 200 176.69 (-0.34)          Hunting Matthew Nichols (HUNMN) 61000 3.56 (+0.04)