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This version of the rule picks the direction of the adjust correctly about 64% of the time, slightly better than MTC does.

Posted by: RogerMore on Mar 14, 14:50 in response to xiayun's post Normally I'd go with like 30%

But it does seem better than MTC at identifying movies that will overperform (like DESME and TAKER) or underperform (like DRVAN and GWRRH)

Still, the rule has had a couple of flubs (KFKID, MCHTE, BMOM3) and doesn't help when MTC and RS have both vastly overestimated the market (SATC2, NARN3, IMNO4, CLASH, GHOOL, IRNM2, I could go on etc)

MTC confirms what I said earlier [PAUL] and [LMTLS] $15 million, [LNLAW] $13 million secretstalker Mar 14, 11:59

Doesn't mean you're both right. :) {nm} Antibody Mar 14, 12:10

I meant the part about all of the movies being very close this week. Never switched placement on three new movies this much possibly ever. {nm} secretstalker Mar 14, 12:18

This is the kind of weekend to separate the pros from the wannabes. :) {nm} Antibody Mar 14, 12:21

Still no RS futures? {nm} tribefan695 Mar 14, 12:19

Nope... notfabio hasn't received yet. {nm} secretstalker Mar 14, 12:24

I can make up some "Red Riding Hood - 40M+" type projections to tide everyone over if you want. BionicMoron Mar 14, 12:38

What interests me are trends. RRH went down each week, I want to know what direction SUCKP is going in {nm} tribefan695 Mar 14, 12:46

Heh - I was looking over RS {nm} RogerMore Mar 14, 12:47

RS's predictions over the last year or so. Here's my picks for their ten most ridiculous (in hindsight, and in no patricular order) RogerMore Mar 14, 12:53

that gets a WOW....horrible {nm} lobogotti Mar 14, 13:19

can anyone tell me "the rule" please? I always forget and I want to save it now {nm} krapnek Mar 14, 13:13

If MTC is bigger than RS by a significant amount, the film will end bigger than MTC; if MTC is smaller by a large margin, the film will go xiayun Mar 14, 13:34

By what margin do you consider "significant"? Haven't seen RS's numbers but it seems like the diff. ranges from 2 to 4 million between them {nm} secretstalker Mar 14, 14:01

Normally I'd go with like 30% {nm} xiayun Mar 14, 14:03

This version of the rule picks the direction of the adjust correctly about 64% of the time, slightly better than MTC does. RogerMore Mar 14, 14:50

I predict a lot of disappointment this week. {nm} not2fast Mar 14, 13:17

I predict a short weekend again. ( at least for me and the other pros ;-) {nm} JMT Mar 14, 13:57

although LMTLS could surprise {nm} JMT Mar 14, 14:25

Why that one? Have you seen it? Is there anything very special about it.. ? {nm} Facto Mar 14, 17:35

The other films look lame in comparison. Limitless ( the trailer that is ) looks interesting , the story, the actors, the Niro {nm} JMT Mar 14, 23:46

battle la, rango, and riding hood should all be in a better position this weekend. don't see any of these getting higher than #3 {nm} the_steveinator Mar 15, 13:50

Paul is actually really good, just playing to a crowd that no longer really goes to theaters....see Scott Pilgrim. {nm} Lucky856 Mar 17, 08:18





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The Custom of the Country (TCOTC) 150000 16.73 (-1.27)          The Custom of the Country (TCOTC) 150000 16.73 (-1.27)          The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PRAD2) 78 177.03 (+2.14)          The Housekeeper (HSKPR) 150000 4.79 (+1.58)          The Housekeeper (HSKPR) 149999 4.79 (+1.58)          The Housekeeper (HSKPR) 149998 4.79 (+1.58)          The Housekeeper (HSKPR) 150000 4.79 (+1.58)          Colin Jost (CJOST) 25000 31.45 (+0.25)          Shiver (SHVER) 15000 64.24 (+6.84)          The Custom of the Country (TCOTC) 150000 16.73 (-1.27)          Shiver (SHVER) 10000 64.24 (+6.84)          Forgotten Island (FRGIS) 5000 49.58 (+0.15)          The Conjuring: First Communion (CNJU5) 5000 82.69 (-0.23)          The Custom of the Country (TCOTC) 150000 16.73 (-1.27)          The Simpsons Movie 2 (SIMP2) 5000 167.38 (-0.47)          Miami Vice (MIVIC) 5000 91.95 (+0.10)          Attack of the 50 Foot Woman (A50FW) 37500 44.53 (-0.09)          Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle 2 (DSIC2) 5000 92.99 (-0.26)          Ice Age: Boiling Point aka Ice A (ICEA6) 5000 93.05 (-0.10)          Werwulf (WERWU) 5000 68.08 (-0.06)          Shang-Chi 2 (SHCH2) 37500 46.66 (-0.28)          Avengers: Secret Wars (AVNG6) 243 472.90 (+0.38)          Hexed (HEXED) 5000 113.18 (-0.56)          The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the (HGAM6) 5000 179.08 (-0.35)          Mercy (MRCY1) 25000 22.05 (-0.61)          How to Make a Killing (HNGTN) 89000 19.37 (-0.18)          Avengers: Secret Wars (AVNG6) 344 472.90 (+0.38)          Mercy (MRCY1) 149999 22.05 (-0.61)          Bluey the Movie (BLUEY) 5000 133.82 (+0.43)          A Quiet Place: Part III (AQPL4) 5000 103.38 (-0.13)          This Is Not a Test (TINAT) 150000 1.97 (+0.10)          Tuner (TUNER) 150000 5.98 (+0.12)          Slanted (SLANT) 150000 4.68 (+0.17)          Alien sequel (ALIE6) 5000 71.81 (+0.19)          Undertone (UNDTN) 149999 12.21 (+0.32)          The Nightingale (NITNG) 150000 6.41 (+0.43)          Transformers 8 (TFRM8) 37500 46.46 (-0.05)          Shelter (SELTR) 149999 13.26 (+0.46)          Avengers: Secret Wars (AVNG6) 360 472.90 (+0.38)          The Lord of the Rings: The Hunt (LOTR5) 5000 169.25 (-0.87)          Gatto (GATTO) 2000 111.02 (+0.50)          The Conjuring: First Communion (CNJU5) 2000 82.69 (-0.23)          What Happens At Night (WHANT) 30000 34.57 (+0.10)          Shiver (SHVER) 149999 64.24 (+6.84)          The Custom of the Country (TCOTC) 150000 16.73 (-1.27)          Starship Troopers (STRPR) 5 39.87 (-0.08)          Avengers: Secret Wars (AVNG6) 4053 472.90 (+0.38)          The Beatles - A Four-Film Cinema (BEAT1) 1 113.15 (+0.44)          Elden Ring (ELDEN) 37500 40.00 (+0.08)          The Custom of the Country (TCOTC) 50000 16.73 (-1.27)