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This version of the rule picks the direction of the adjust correctly about 64% of the time, slightly better than MTC does.

Posted by: RogerMore on Mar 14, 14:50 in response to xiayun's post Normally I'd go with like 30%

But it does seem better than MTC at identifying movies that will overperform (like DESME and TAKER) or underperform (like DRVAN and GWRRH)

Still, the rule has had a couple of flubs (KFKID, MCHTE, BMOM3) and doesn't help when MTC and RS have both vastly overestimated the market (SATC2, NARN3, IMNO4, CLASH, GHOOL, IRNM2, I could go on etc)

MTC confirms what I said earlier [PAUL] and [LMTLS] $15 million, [LNLAW] $13 million secretstalker Mar 14, 11:59

Doesn't mean you're both right. :) {nm} Antibody Mar 14, 12:10

I meant the part about all of the movies being very close this week. Never switched placement on three new movies this much possibly ever. {nm} secretstalker Mar 14, 12:18

This is the kind of weekend to separate the pros from the wannabes. :) {nm} Antibody Mar 14, 12:21

Still no RS futures? {nm} tribefan695 Mar 14, 12:19

Nope... notfabio hasn't received yet. {nm} secretstalker Mar 14, 12:24

I can make up some "Red Riding Hood - 40M+" type projections to tide everyone over if you want. BionicMoron Mar 14, 12:38

What interests me are trends. RRH went down each week, I want to know what direction SUCKP is going in {nm} tribefan695 Mar 14, 12:46

Heh - I was looking over RS {nm} RogerMore Mar 14, 12:47

RS's predictions over the last year or so. Here's my picks for their ten most ridiculous (in hindsight, and in no patricular order) RogerMore Mar 14, 12:53

that gets a WOW....horrible {nm} lobogotti Mar 14, 13:19

can anyone tell me "the rule" please? I always forget and I want to save it now {nm} krapnek Mar 14, 13:13

If MTC is bigger than RS by a significant amount, the film will end bigger than MTC; if MTC is smaller by a large margin, the film will go xiayun Mar 14, 13:34

By what margin do you consider "significant"? Haven't seen RS's numbers but it seems like the diff. ranges from 2 to 4 million between them {nm} secretstalker Mar 14, 14:01

Normally I'd go with like 30% {nm} xiayun Mar 14, 14:03

This version of the rule picks the direction of the adjust correctly about 64% of the time, slightly better than MTC does. RogerMore Mar 14, 14:50

I predict a lot of disappointment this week. {nm} not2fast Mar 14, 13:17

I predict a short weekend again. ( at least for me and the other pros ;-) {nm} JMT Mar 14, 13:57

although LMTLS could surprise {nm} JMT Mar 14, 14:25

Why that one? Have you seen it? Is there anything very special about it.. ? {nm} Facto Mar 14, 17:35

The other films look lame in comparison. Limitless ( the trailer that is ) looks interesting , the story, the actors, the Niro {nm} JMT Mar 14, 23:46

battle la, rango, and riding hood should all be in a better position this weekend. don't see any of these getting higher than #3 {nm} the_steveinator Mar 15, 13:50

Paul is actually really good, just playing to a crowd that no longer really goes to theaters....see Scott Pilgrim. {nm} Lucky856 Mar 17, 08:18





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Separate Rooms (SEPRM) 150000 6.00 (0.00)          The Fall Guy (FALGY) 14999 120.53 (-3.49)          The Island (ISLAN) 60000 3.45 (-0.04)          The Haunting In Wicker Park aka (TRUEH) 74999 6.02 (-0.02)          The Island (ISLAN) 125000 3.45 (-0.04)          Hercules (HRCUL) 8000 28.76 (-0.14)          Hercules (HRCUL) 12000 28.76 (-0.14)          Hercules (HRCUL) 12000 28.76 (-0.14)          Jumanji sequel (JUMN3) 3000 72.70 (-1.82)          The Chronicles of Narnia (NARN4) 72 1.00 (-0.03)          Jumanji sequel (JUMN3) 7271 72.70 (-1.82)          Jumanji sequel (JUMN3) 6000 72.70 (-1.82)          Boy Kills World (BOYKW) 150000 8.95 (+1.54)          Crime After Crime (CACRM) 150000 0.08 (-0.02)          Bum's Rush (BUMSR) 150000 0.07 (0.00)          Boy Kills World (BOYKW) 150000 8.95 (+1.54)          Tunnels (TUNLS) 150000 0.03 (+0.02)          Dark Army (DARKA) 3095 7.37 (-0.01)          Dark Army (DARKA) 7000 7.37 (-0.01)          Last Breath (LBRTH) 149999 10.95 (-0.75)          Crime After Crime (CACRM) 150000 0.08 (-0.02)          Bum's Rush (BUMSR) 150000 0.07 (0.00)          Tunnels (TUNLS) 150000 0.03 (+0.02)          Separate Rooms (SEPRM) 150000 6.00 (0.00)          Leo from Toledo (LEOFT) 150000 0.02 (0.00)          Sniff (SNIFF) 150000 0.14 (-0.02)          Leo from Toledo (LEOFT) 150000 0.02 (0.00)          Sniff (SNIFF) 150000 0.14 (-0.02)          The Chronicles of Narnia (NARN4) 150000 1.00 (-0.03)          Spinal Tap II (STAP2) 14999 28.57 (-0.58)          Joker: Folie à Deux (JOKE2) 3 266.64 (-1.49)          The Chronicles of Narnia (NARN4) 150000 1.00 (-0.03)          Separate Rooms (SEPRM) 150000 6.00 (0.00)          Joker: Folie à Deux (JOKE2) 3 266.64 (-1.49)          Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (MMAX5) 3 156.01 (-1.21)          Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (MMAX5) 3 156.01 (-1.21)          Superman (SUPRM) 3 191.26 (-0.34)          Superman (SUPRM) 3 191.26 (-0.34)          Elio (ELIO) 3 115.92 (-0.32)          Elio (ELIO) 3 115.92 (-0.32)          Last Breath (LBRTH) 150000 10.95 (-0.75)          Last Breath (LBRTH) 150000 10.95 (-0.75)          Anora (ANORA) 2 3.83 (+0.47)          Anora (ANORA) 2 3.83 (+0.47)          Back to Black (BTBLK) 3 21.26 (+0.26)          Last Breath (LBRTH) 150000 10.95 (-0.75)          Back to Black (BTBLK) 3 21.26 (+0.26)          Clue (CLUE) 10000 17.29 (-1.10)          The Monkey (MONKY) 2 19.57 (+0.11)          The Monkey (MONKY) 2 19.57 (+0.11)