The HSX Blog

Whisper Numbers: Holiday weekend looks to Die Hard

The long weekend due to the President’s Day holiday brings four new wide releases, with three opening on Thursday to take advantage of Valentine’s Day. Bruce Willis [BWILL] reprises his signature role as John McClane for the fifth time in A Good Day to Die Hard [DIEH5]. The former NYPD cop takes his one-man anti-terrorist act abroad for the first time as he visits Russia to locate his estrange son, played by Jai Courtney [JCOUR]. The R-rated action film is tracking extremely well, though much of that goodwill comes from the well-received fourth edition Live Free or Die Hard, which was rated PG-13 and earned $48.4 million in its first five days in 2007. However, A Good Day to Die Hard has garnered by far the worse reviews in the series, which could matter to the older male target audience. A Good Day to Die Hard is also the shortest movie in the series at 97 minutes, and the only one not released during the summer season. Smart fans can see that this unnecessary sequel was made purely for the money, and Fox’s marketing bears that out by amping up the explosive action with little regards to revealing the actual story. Jumping into 3522 theaters, A Good Day to Die Hard could blast away $38 million from Friday to Monday.

Melissa McCarthy became a legitimate box office draw when Identity Thief [IDTHF] exceeded all expectations last weekend. With the R-rated comedy performing well in Middle America, Identity Thief could steal another $20 million over the 4-day weekend.

The feature adaptation of the Nicholas Sparks novel Safe Haven [SAFHV] opens on Thursday just in time for Valentine’s Day. The last Sparks adaptation The Lucky Ones starring Zac Efron opened to $22.5 million in April. In 2010, Channing Tatum and Amanda Seyfried powered Dear John to $30.5 million while Miley Cyrus and Liam Hemsworth managed just $16.0 million for The Last Song. With the combination of Josh Duhamel [JDUHA] and Julianne Hough [JHOUG], Safe Haven should fall somewhere in between. The PG-13 rated romance has earned terrible reviews, but that’s not gonna matter to the female target audience. Couples will goose the box office on Valentine’s Day, and then Safe Haven should settle in with $19 million from Friday through Monday in 3233 locations.

Beautiful Creatures [BTCRT] is the latest fantasy romance based on a young adult book series trying to capture a slice of the Twilight fanbase. Like its Harry Potter franchise, Warner Bros. has cast unknown in the leads, while surrounding them with recognizable stars. Also opening on Thursday, the PG-13 rated film has some slight competition from Safe Haven, which skews older, as well as Warm Bodies, which is in its third weekend. Putting a spell in 2950 theaters, Beautiful Creatures could collect $18 million over the 4-day weekend.

Escape from Planet Earth [ESCPE] is the first new animated film since Thanksgiving. The PG-rated Weinstein Co. release has the family audience all to itself over the holiday weekend. However, the animated film had been mired in litigation so the marketing did not start in earnest until a month ago. Landing in 3288 theaters, Escape from Planet Earth may take $14 million over the long weekend.

That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.


View more Blog posts »

By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, February 14, 2013 @ 03:51 PM 3755 views

Recent Comments

    No recent comments.


@HSXMOVIES on Twitter

Follow HSX on Twitter!

The Boogeyman opened with an estimated $12.3M at the weekend #boxoffice https://t.co/EPWT5ifWx0 #TheBoogeyman https://t.co/fyITezHpVP       Box Score: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse nets an estimated $120.5M at the weekend #boxoffice…       The Boogeyman grabbed an estimated $4.8M Friday at the weekend #boxoffice #TheBoogeyman https://t.co/HVuroVc2Xp       Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse captured an estimated $51.75M Friday at the weekend #boxoffice…       The Boys in the Boat directed by George Clooney will open in theaters on December 25th #TheBoysintheBoat       #TheBoogeyman gets $1.1M in Thursday previews at the #boxoffice https://t.co/3QSNXcCIiU       Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse snared $17.35M in Thursday previews at the #boxoffice … https://t.co/7BHry4ERPK       Tobias Menzies joins Untitled Formula 1 Project starring Brad Pitt       Dwayne Johnson will return as #HOBBS        Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse is currently trading at a $97.0M Opening Weekend on #HSX. Should you Buy, Sell…      
The Wolfman (TWLFM) 1 15.14 (+0.77)         The Wolfman (TWLFM) 1 15.14 (+0.77)         Strays (STRAY) 3000 35.68 (0.00)         Insidious: The Red Door (NSID5) 3 43.79 (+0.90)         Insidious: The Red Door (NSID5) 3 43.79 (+0.90)         Last Voyage Of The Demeter (LVDEM) 2000 22.25 (-0.11)         Red One (REDON) 2 47.21 (-0.67)         Red One (REDON) 150000 47.21 (-0.67)         The Boys in the Boat (TBITB) 3 16.03 (-0.56)         The Things They Carried (TTTHC) 150000 3.19 (+0.01)         The Boys in the Boat (TBITB) 150000 16.03 (-0.56)         Problemista (PRBLM) 3000 2.65 (-0.01)         Hobbs (FFHS2) 18000 51.59 (+1.52)         Under the Boardwalk (UNDBW) 150000 4.44 (+0.03)         Talk to Me (TLKTM) 7000 17.12 (-0.16)         Talk to Me (TLKTM) 2000 17.12 (-0.16)         Fast X Part 2 aka Fast & Furious (FAF11) 8000 119.54 (-2.11)         Shadya (SHDYA) 149999 0.92 (-0.05)         Insidious: The Red Door (NSID5) 4000 43.79 (+0.90)         The Georgetown Project (TGTWP) 149999 1.61 (-0.06)         The War Magician (WARMG) 149999 6.58 (-0.08)         Insidious: The Red Door (NSID5) 4200 43.79 (+0.90)         The Silent Hour (SLNHR) 149999 13.98 (-0.09)         Superman: Legacy (SUPRM) 5000 171.79 (-1.02)         Amateur (AMTUR) 149999 21.37 (-0.10)         Please Don't Feed The Children (PDFTC) 149999 9.24 (-0.09)         Madonna biopic (MDONA) 150000 5.45 (+0.10)         Jason Schwartzman (JSCHW) 25000 24.08 (+1.84)         Mission: Impossible - Dead Recko (MISS8) 22000 187.09 (+3.29)         Brian Tyree Henry (BTHEN) 25000 124.97 (+1.34)         Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken (GILLM) 2000 57.58 (-0.02)         The Boys in the Boat (TBITB) 150000 16.03 (-0.56)         Greta Lee (GLEE) 25000 28.96 (+2.80)         Issa Rae (IRAE) 25000 46.17 (+2.59)         No Hard Feelings (NHFEL) 4000 41.68 (+0.30)         Camp Hideout (CHDOT) 98000 2.62 (-0.19)         Mahershala Ali (MALI) 25000 149.60 (+2.28)         The Flash (FLASH) 6000 221.37 (-1.03)         Stealth (STELT) 150000 5.39 (+0.09)         Two Tickets to Greece (2TGRC) 150000 0.66 (-0.17)         Shameik Moore (SMOOR) 5000 107.47 (+1.39)         Juror No. 2 aka Juror #2 (JUROR) 149999 23.91 (-0.22)         Oscar Isaac (OISAA) 25000 130.57 (+0.46)         The Little Mermaid (TLMER) 6000 278.57 (-1.30)         Elemental (ELMNT) 150000 128.43 (+3.94)         Sinister Six (SINST) 149999 28.63 (-0.26)         Small Things Like These (SMTLT) 150000 5.39 (-0.04)         Elemental (ELMNT) 150000 128.43 (+3.94)         Jake Johnson (JMJOH) 25000 122.24 (+1.40)         You Hurt My Feelings (BETHD) 1200 4.16 (+0.33)