The HSX Blog

Whisper Numbers: Holiday weekend looks to Die Hard

The long weekend due to the President’s Day holiday brings four new wide releases, with three opening on Thursday to take advantage of Valentine’s Day. Bruce Willis [BWILL] reprises his signature role as John McClane for the fifth time in A Good Day to Die Hard [DIEH5]. The former NYPD cop takes his one-man anti-terrorist act abroad for the first time as he visits Russia to locate his estrange son, played by Jai Courtney [JCOUR]. The R-rated action film is tracking extremely well, though much of that goodwill comes from the well-received fourth edition Live Free or Die Hard, which was rated PG-13 and earned $48.4 million in its first five days in 2007. However, A Good Day to Die Hard has garnered by far the worse reviews in the series, which could matter to the older male target audience. A Good Day to Die Hard is also the shortest movie in the series at 97 minutes, and the only one not released during the summer season. Smart fans can see that this unnecessary sequel was made purely for the money, and Fox’s marketing bears that out by amping up the explosive action with little regards to revealing the actual story. Jumping into 3522 theaters, A Good Day to Die Hard could blast away $38 million from Friday to Monday.

Melissa McCarthy became a legitimate box office draw when Identity Thief [IDTHF] exceeded all expectations last weekend. With the R-rated comedy performing well in Middle America, Identity Thief could steal another $20 million over the 4-day weekend.

The feature adaptation of the Nicholas Sparks novel Safe Haven [SAFHV] opens on Thursday just in time for Valentine’s Day. The last Sparks adaptation The Lucky Ones starring Zac Efron opened to $22.5 million in April. In 2010, Channing Tatum and Amanda Seyfried powered Dear John to $30.5 million while Miley Cyrus and Liam Hemsworth managed just $16.0 million for The Last Song. With the combination of Josh Duhamel [JDUHA] and Julianne Hough [JHOUG], Safe Haven should fall somewhere in between. The PG-13 rated romance has earned terrible reviews, but that’s not gonna matter to the female target audience. Couples will goose the box office on Valentine’s Day, and then Safe Haven should settle in with $19 million from Friday through Monday in 3233 locations.

Beautiful Creatures [BTCRT] is the latest fantasy romance based on a young adult book series trying to capture a slice of the Twilight fanbase. Like its Harry Potter franchise, Warner Bros. has cast unknown in the leads, while surrounding them with recognizable stars. Also opening on Thursday, the PG-13 rated film has some slight competition from Safe Haven, which skews older, as well as Warm Bodies, which is in its third weekend. Putting a spell in 2950 theaters, Beautiful Creatures could collect $18 million over the 4-day weekend.

Escape from Planet Earth [ESCPE] is the first new animated film since Thanksgiving. The PG-rated Weinstein Co. release has the family audience all to itself over the holiday weekend. However, the animated film had been mired in litigation so the marketing did not start in earnest until a month ago. Landing in 3288 theaters, Escape from Planet Earth may take $14 million over the long weekend.

That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.


View more Blog posts »

By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, February 14, 2013 @ 03:51 PM 3376 views

Recent Comments

    No recent comments.


@HSXMOVIES on Twitter

Follow HSX on Twitter!

Box Score: #Encanto leads a lowkey Thanksgiving weekend with an estimated $27.0M 3-day and $40.3M 5-day at the…       #HouseofGucci banked an estimated $14.2M 3-day and $21.8M 5-day       #ResidentEvilWelcometoRaccoonCity scored an estimated $5.3M 3-day / $8.8M 5-day       #Belfast took in an estimated $970K in its wide expansion       #Encanto grossed an estimated $11.0M on Friday and $24.3M since Wednesday       #HouseofGucci grossed an estimated $5.7M on Friday and $13.3M since Wednesday       #ResidentEvilWelcometoRaccoonCity grossed an estimated $2.0M on Friday and $5.5M since Wednesday       New trailer for #Rumble, going straight to streaming December 15th on Paramount+ https://t.co/UIEbIuYaGr       First Look at The Beatles in Midas Man https://t.co/X0PZXtKksb       UK trailer for The Score starring Will Poulter, Naomi Ackie and Johnny Flynn https://t.co/gXFgQSfdec      
The Unforgivable (UNFGV) 150000 0.08 (+0.05)         Sweet Valley High (SVHI) 150000 0.06 (+0.03)         Salvatore: Shoemaker Of Dreams (SALSD) 150000 0.17 (-0.01)         Rifkin's Festival (RIFKN) 150000 0.24 (-0.02)         TAR (TAR) 149999 9.36 (-0.07)         Medieval (MDEVL) 150000 0.24 (-0.05)         Oh Hell No (OHELN) 50000 24.15 (-0.02)         West Side Story - Opening Weeken (WSDST.OW) 100000 20.76 (-0.21)         Everything Everywhere All At Onc (EEAAO) 149999 3.03 (-0.06)         Call Jane (CALLJ) 150000 1.11 (+0.04)         Eternals $155M Blockbuster Warra (ETRNL.BW) 25000 5.00 (0.00)         Will Ferrell (WFERR) 5000 61.80 (-0.03)         Eternals $155M Blockbuster Warra (ETRNL.BW) 25000 5.00 (0.00)         The Novice (NOVIC) 149999 0.23 (-0.04)         Wes Bentley (WBENT) 5000 57.04 (+0.03)         Will Arnett (WARNE) 5000 63.91 (-0.03)         Ving Rhames (VRHAM) 5000 104.02 (+0.06)         Viola Davis (VDAVI) 5000 78.00 (+0.05)         Resident Evil: Welcome to Raccoo (RESE7) 10000 18.50 (-0.03)         Tessa Thompson (TTHOM) 5000 105.46 (+0.40)         Being the Ricardos (LUCIL) 149999 0.04 (+0.03)         Tony Revolori (TREVO) 5000 102.80 (-1.99)         Garfield (GRFLD) 10000 32.80 (+1.77)         Encanto (ENCNT) 150000 92.28 (-3.22)         The Black Hole (BHOLE) 150000 0.58 (+0.04)         Tony Revolori (TREVO) 5000 102.80 (-1.99)         Sing 2 (SING2) 25000 156.44 (+2.43)         Belfast (BELFS) 149999 8.58 (-0.13)         The Black Hole (BHOLE) 150000 0.58 (+0.04)         Simon Pegg (SPEGG) 5000 116.68 (+0.06)         Sing 2 (SING2) 9000 156.44 (+2.43)         Scott Eastwood (SEAST) 5000 103.38 (+0.06)         Blazing Samurai (BLAZS) 65001 0.37 (0.00)         Sofia Coppola (SCOPP) 25000 5.93 (-0.07)         Clifford the Big Red Dog (CTBRD) 74999 49.02 (-1.35)         Steve Coogan (SCOOG) 5000 51.52 (-0.03)         Sam Claflin (SCLAF) 5000 9.65 (-0.04)         Deadpool 3 (DEAD3) 15000 144.98 (+3.15)         Decision to Leave (DCTLV) 150000 0.46 (0.00)         Sofia Boutella (SBOUT) 5000 28.03 (-0.02)         James Gunn (JGUNN) 25000 116.97 (+2.33)         Rafe Spall (RSPAL) 25000 105.92 (-0.33)         Andy Serkis (ASERK) 25000 152.79 (+1.66)         Romany Malco (RMALC) 24000 41.53 (-0.16)         Richard Gere (RGERE) 24000 9.33 (+0.01)         American Underdog (AUKWS) 8987 38.41 (-1.74)         Rami Malek (RMALE) 5000 87.37 (-0.20)         Clifford the Big Red Dog (CTBRD) 150000 49.02 (-1.35)         Ruben Fleischer (RFLEI) 5000 103.57 (+0.06)         Paul Thomas Anderson (PTAND) 24000 24.18 (+0.19)