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Whisper Numbers: Will fanboys beat Grown Ups?

Two new contenders will enter the box office arena, but the reigning champion is likely to prevail again. Despicable Me 2 [DESM2] proved to be a bigger blockbuster than anyone expected.  The animated sequel may hold 55% of its opening weekend for another $46 million.

Giant robots battle giant monsters in the sci-fi actioner Pacific Rim [PACRM] with an original story that takes its inspiration from decades of Japanese monster and mecha films. Without a star in the cast, Warner Bros. has focused the marketing on the Kaijus and Jaegers.  Directing his first film in five years, Guillermo del Toro [GDELT] has been relentlessly promoting the PG-13 rated film to the target audience. Enthusiasm from fanboys has been palpable since the release of the first teaser, and there’s no doubt young males will turn out opening weekend.   Trackings in other demographics have been light though, but the reviews have been strong. With little competition for action fares, Pacific Rim could slug out $40 million from 3275 locations.

Adam Sandler [ASAND] reunites with his buddies for the comedy sequel Grown Ups 2 [GRWN2]. Grown Ups opened to $40.5 million in 2010, but were people clamoring for a sequel? With the exception of Nick Swardson [NSWAR] replacing Rob Schneider, the sequel looks like a retread of the original. The PG-13 rated film also added Taylor Lautner [TLAUT], Shaquille O’Neal as well as a slew of SNL cameos, but the audience is unlikely to expand from the usual Sandler fanbase. Playing in 3491 theaters, Grown Ups 2 may gross $37 million.

Moviegoers didn’t care for the revival of The Lone Ranger [LONER]. With poor reviews, the western could tumble more than 50% to $14 million for its second weekend. The Heat [THEAT] should cross the century mark with another $13 million in its third outing.

That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): DESM2, PACRM, GDELT, ASAND, GRWN2, NSWAR, TLAUT, LONER, THEAT

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, July 11, 2013 @ 04:14 PM 2712 views

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