SPIN FACTOR®

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Whisper Numbers: Dying to succeed at the box office

Two new films about dying targeted at different demographics square off this weekend and the teen romance The Fault in Our Stars [TFIOS] is likely to prevail over the sci-fi actioner Edge of Tomorrow [AYNIK]. Shailene Woodley [SWOOD] and Ansel Elgort [AELGO] star in The Fault in Our Stars as cancer-stricken patients who fall in love. The PG-13 rated tearjerker draws from a rabid, young female fanbase that has made the John Green novel a best-seller. The film has been trending off the chart on social media for weeks. Advance ticket sales are outpacing 2012’s The Vow, which earned $41.2 million over its first 3 days. Landing in 3171 theaters, The Fault in Our Stars looks to break out with $46 million.

After its strong bow, Maleficent [MALEF] faces direct competition for female moviegoers in its second weekend. However, the PG-rated Disney film is still the top choice for families, which may alleviate the sophomore decline to around $34 million.

14 months after starring in Oblivion, Tom Cruise [TCRUI] returns with another original sci-fi film Edge of Tomorrow. Although it opened to $37 million, Oblivion’s mixed reception could hurt Edge of Tomorrow just by its proximity.  Although Edge of Tomorrow has garnered excellent reviews,  the PG-13 rated film is not tracking with moviegoers. Warner Bros.’ decision to change the title from the manga's ‘All You Need Is Kill' to its current bland name did not help.  Much better is the tagline ‘Live. Die. Repeat’ utilized in the marketing campaign that emphazises the videogame-like story to appeal to young males. However, Edge of Tomorrow may appeal to just older sci-fi fans. Targeting 3490 theaters, Edge of Tomorrow could wake up with $30 million.

X-Men: Days of Future Past [XMEN5] looks to score another $18 million in its third weekend, while A Million Ways to Die in the West [MWTDW] could tumble nearly 60% in its second weekend to $7 million.

After 4 weeks of limited release, Chef [CHEF1] widens to 1298 theaters. The well-reviewed comedy earned $1.9 million from 624 theaters last weekend. With positive word of mouth, Chef may cook up $3.5 million.

That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): TFIOS, AYNIK, SWOOD, AELGO, MALEF, TCRUI, XMEN5, MWTDW, CHEF1

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, June 5, 2014 @ 03:13 PM 2357 views

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