SPIN FACTOR®

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Whisper Numbers: Transformers should hold off Tammy

Three new films open in wide release today ahead of the Fourth of July holiday weekend. Business will likely be slow Friday evening as people gather for festivities and fireworks rather hit the movies. Transformers: Age of Extinction [TFRM4] became the year’s first $100 million opener, though not without controversy over Paramount’s apparent fudging of what others in the industry figured should be $97 million. With everything going against it in its second weekend, Transformers: Age of Extinction is likely to tumble close to 60% to $41 million.

Melissa McCarthy [MMCCA] uses her newfound stardom to produce her first film and solo as the lead in Tammy [TAMMY]. The R-rated comedy features more of her outrageous antics, which helped opened The Heat to $39.1 million and Identity Thief $34.6 million. With a Wednesday opening in 3400 theaters siphoning moviegoers away from the weekend, Tammy is unlikely to match those figures. Tammy may settle with $27 million from Friday to Sunday.

Eric Bana [EBANA] stars in the latest horror film inspired by a true story, Deliver Us From Evil [BWRNT]. Sony hopes to bring out horror fans that made The Conjuring a surprise hit last summer. The R-rated film about exorcism should also appeal to Latino moviegoers. Playing in 3045 theaters, Deliver Us From Evil could scare up $16 million over the weekend.

Relativity counters with the PG-rated Earth to Echo [ECHO], a found footage sci-fi film aimed at families. Earth to Echo looks to uncover $12 million from 3229 theaters between Friday and Sunday.

America: Imagine a World Without Her [AIWWH] expands wide into 1105 theaters. The political documentary targets conservatives who supported director Dinesh D'Souza's 2016: Obama’s America, but is unlikely to have the same success. America may net $3 million over the holiday weekend.

That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): TFRM4, MMCCA, TAMMY, EBANA, BWRNT, ECHO, AIWWH

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By Box Office Whisperer on Wednesday, July 2, 2014 @ 12:17 PM 2432 views

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