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Whisper Numbers: Captain America: Civil War to be lucrative

Disney’s domination of the box office this year continues as Captain America: Civil War [CAPA3] kicks off the summer movie season. The third film in the Steve Rogers series returns the two title characters from 2014’s Captain America: Winter Soldier plus Black Widow, Falcon and Nick Fury. Joining them from other Marvel superhero franchises are Iron Man, Hawkeye, Vision, Scarlet Witch, War Machine and Ant-Man. Civil War also introduces the eagerly awaited Black Panther and the even more highly anticipated Spider-Man into the Marvel Cinematic Universe. With all the superheroes, Civil War is shaping up more like a sequel to last May’s The Avengers: Age of Ultron. Advance ticket sales bear that out as Civil War has outpaced all previous superhero films.

In 2012, The Avengers set an opening weekend record at $207.4 million, which Age of Ultron fell short of breaking with $191.2 million even though it had higher presales. Warner Bros.' rival Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice had even better presales, but its opening weekend ended up at $166 million. Civil War does have better reviews than Age of Ultron and Batman v Superman, so it should prove less frontloaded by Sunday.  The fanboy money is guaranteed, but there could be hesitation from moviegoers disappointed with Age of Ultron.  The week early international release has helped amp up the positive buzz on the PG-13 rated sequel.  Fighting in 4226 theaters, Captain America: Civil War may hit $205 million.

With Captain America taking away the best screens along with a sizable portion of the audience, The Jungle Book [JNGLB] will likely fall to around $21 million.

Mother’s Day [MTHRS] should see an uptick on Mother’s Day Sunday and hold 65% of its opening weekend for a sophomore session of $5.5 million.

Despite good reviews, Keanu [KEANU] will be overshadowed by Captain America and may drop 50% in its second weekend to about $5 million.

That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): CAPA3, JNGLB, MTHRS, KEANU

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, May 5, 2016 @ 03:43 PM 5138 views

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