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Whisper Numbers: Is Avatar about to change the course of movies?

Twelve years after directing his last feature film Titanic, the self-proclaimed ‘King of the World’ James Cameron [JCAME] is back to reclaim his throne with the sci-fi adventure Avatar [AVATR].  Using state-of-the-art 3D and performance capture technology, Cameron has created a world that seamlessly merged live-action with CG animation.   Although the trailers were initially met with skepticism, the finished film has garnered overwhelming positive, glowing reviews.  The film that set out to be an industry “game changer” has actually met the lofty expectation.  Fox marketing has been in overdrive positioning the $400 million movie as a must-experience 3D event. The buzz will only grow as the first midnight screenings let out.  I Am Legend’s December record of $77.2 million may be at risk.  The higher 3D ticket prices should compensate for the longer 160 minutes running time.  Descending upon 3453 theaters, Avatar could blow away $80 million.

Disney’s G-rated animated musical The Princess and the Frog [FROGP] should display long legs at the box office with the upcoming school break for the holidays.   A decay around 25% would give The Princess and the Frog $18 million and second place.

Sarah Jessica Parker [SJPAR] and Hugh Grant [HGRAN] pair up for the PG-13 rated romantic comedy Did You Hear About the Morgans? [MRGNS].   The film’s target demographic may be more interesting in shopping on the last weekend before Christmas than checking out yet another story about city slickers in the boondocks discovering themselves.  Opening in 2718 theaters, the Morgans may settle down with roughly $11 million.

Despite the A-list talent involved with Invictus [INVIC], American moviegoers were apparently not too interested in South African politics or the sport of Rugby.   The film’s older target audience may be waiting on reviews, which are generally favorable. In its sophomore frame, Invictus may decline around 30% to $6 million.

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.



Tag(s): JCAME, AVATR, FROGP, SJPAR, HGRAN, MRGNS, INVIC

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, December 17, 2009 @ 04:08 PM 3909 views

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The Chaperones (CHAPR) 20000 10.32 (+0.61)          The Moment (MOMNT) 25000 11.65 (+1.01)          Peaked (PEAKD) 25000 7.82 (-0.50)          Fellowship (FELWS) 20000 14.20 (-0.80)          Stephen Lang (SLANG) 25000 63.22 (0.00)          Avatar: Fire and Ash (AVAT3) 150000 435.31 (-3.85)          Avatar: Fire and Ash (AVAT3) 150000 435.31 (-3.85)          Avatar: Fire and Ash (AVAT3) 150000 435.31 (-3.85)          Avatar: Fire and Ash (AVAT3) 55417 435.31 (-3.85)          Shawn Levy (SLEVY) 25000 136.26 (+0.33)          The Bride! (BRIDE) 150000 53.86 (-0.35)          Fellowship (FELWS) 150000 14.20 (-0.80)          Avatar: Fire and Ash H$125 Call (AVAT3.CA) 25000 1.61 (-0.32)          Avatar: Fire and Ash - Opening W (AVAT3.OW) 100000 109.24 (-2.50)          Sydney Sweeney (SSWEE) 25000 30.07 (-0.03)          Babies (BBIES) 150000 12.20 (-1.45)          Love is Not the Answer (LINTA) 150000 6.22 (+1.41)          Love is Not the Answer (LINTA) 150000 6.22 (+1.41)          Street Fighter (STFTR) 8672 67.86 (-0.05)          Babies (BBIES) 150000 12.20 (-1.45)          The Chaperones (CHAPR) 150000 10.32 (+0.61)          Peaked (PEAKD) 150000 7.82 (-0.50)          A Great Awakening (AGAWK) 150000 10.69 (+1.17)          A Great Awakening (AGAWK) 150000 10.69 (+1.17)          The Wrecking Crew (WCREW) 150000 9.66 (-0.10)          David H$25 Put (DAVID.PU) 25000 3.39 (+0.16)          Hypno-Hustler (HYPHU) 1 7.54 (-0.01)          David H$25 Put (DAVID.PU) 25000 3.39 (+0.16)          Song Sung Blue H$10 Put (SSBLU.PU) 25000 1.52 (-0.04)          Song Sung Blue H$10 Put (SSBLU.PU) 25000 1.52 (-0.04)          Marty Supreme H$10 Put (MRTSU.PU) 25000 1.48 (-0.08)          Marty Supreme H$10 Put (MRTSU.PU) 25000 1.48 (-0.08)          CBS: Sheriff Country (SHERFC) 25000 8.66 (-0.06)          28 Years Later: The Bone Temple (28LT4) 150000 59.05 (-0.22)          CBS: Sheriff Country (SHERFC) 25000 8.66 (-0.06)          The Wrecking Crew (WCREW) 150000 9.66 (-0.10)          Man of Tomorrow (SPMOT) 9656 261.85 (+0.54)          Anaconda (ANAC3) 99819 70.02 (-0.96)          Noah Jupe (NJUPE) 25000 67.43 (-0.25)          Digger (DIGER) 1000 102.24 (+0.01)          Digger (DIGER) 1000 102.24 (+0.01)          Jessie Buckley (JSBUC) 25000 16.08 (-0.10)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4) 50000 64.25 (-0.94)          The Wrecking Crew (WCREW) 150000 9.66 (-0.10)          Madden (MADEN) 20000 19.19 (0.00)          David H$25 Put (DAVID.PU) 25000 3.39 (+0.16)          David H$25 Call (DAVID.CA) 25000 0.67 (-0.05)          Avatar: Fire and Ash - Opening W (AVAT3.OW) 10000 109.24 (-2.50)          Anaconda (ANAC3) 100190 70.02 (-0.96)          Anaconda H$30 Call (ANAC3.CA) 25000 1.03 (-0.05)