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Whisper Numbers: Is Avatar about to change the course of movies?

Twelve years after directing his last feature film Titanic, the self-proclaimed ‘King of the World’ James Cameron [JCAME] is back to reclaim his throne with the sci-fi adventure Avatar [AVATR].  Using state-of-the-art 3D and performance capture technology, Cameron has created a world that seamlessly merged live-action with CG animation.   Although the trailers were initially met with skepticism, the finished film has garnered overwhelming positive, glowing reviews.  The film that set out to be an industry “game changer” has actually met the lofty expectation.  Fox marketing has been in overdrive positioning the $400 million movie as a must-experience 3D event. The buzz will only grow as the first midnight screenings let out.  I Am Legend’s December record of $77.2 million may be at risk.  The higher 3D ticket prices should compensate for the longer 160 minutes running time.  Descending upon 3453 theaters, Avatar could blow away $80 million.

Disney’s G-rated animated musical The Princess and the Frog [FROGP] should display long legs at the box office with the upcoming school break for the holidays.   A decay around 25% would give The Princess and the Frog $18 million and second place.

Sarah Jessica Parker [SJPAR] and Hugh Grant [HGRAN] pair up for the PG-13 rated romantic comedy Did You Hear About the Morgans? [MRGNS].   The film’s target demographic may be more interesting in shopping on the last weekend before Christmas than checking out yet another story about city slickers in the boondocks discovering themselves.  Opening in 2718 theaters, the Morgans may settle down with roughly $11 million.

Despite the A-list talent involved with Invictus [INVIC], American moviegoers were apparently not too interested in South African politics or the sport of Rugby.   The film’s older target audience may be waiting on reviews, which are generally favorable. In its sophomore frame, Invictus may decline around 30% to $6 million.

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.



Tag(s): JCAME, AVATR, FROGP, SJPAR, HGRAN, MRGNS, INVIC

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, December 17, 2009 @ 04:08 PM 4166 views

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Turpentine (TURPN) 150000 6.81 (-0.45)          Outside Man (OUTSM) 150000 9.76 (+0.10)          Outside Man (OUTSM) 150000 9.76 (+0.10)          The Further Mis-Adventures of Cl (TAOCB) 150000 15.75 (-0.56)          The Further Mis-Adventures of Cl (TAOCB) 150000 15.75 (-0.56)          Ali G: Who Iz I? (ALIG2) 150000 1.31 (-0.02)          Everest: The Other Side (EVTOS) 150000 2.29 (+1.01)          Everest: The Other Side (EVTOS) 150000 2.29 (+1.01)          Single Female (SIFEM) 150000 20.33 (+0.51)          Single Female (SIFEM) 150000 20.33 (+0.51)          King Snake (KSNAK) 40000 10.16 (0.00)          Breeder (BREDR) 150000 1.90 (+0.04)          World War Z 2 (WWZ2) 12248 100.00 (0.00)          World War Z 2 (WWZ2) 150000 100.00 (0.00)          Wicker (WCKER) 150000 21.08 (+2.09)          Wildwood (WILDW) 100000 33.77 (+3.69)          Enemies (ENMES) 40000 8.27 (+0.01)          World War Z 2 (WWZ2) 150000 100.00 (0.00)          Molepeople (MOLEP) 1 23.00 (+0.82)          World War Z 2 (WWZ2) 128531 100.00 (0.00)          Molepeople (MOLEP) 25000 23.00 (+0.82)          Ebenezer - Opening Weekend (EBNZR.OW) 100000 34.16 (-0.96)          How to Rob a Bank - Opening Week (HTRAB.OW) 100000 13.74 (-0.54)          Godzilla Minus Zero - Opening We (GODM2.OW) 100000 37.46 (-0.18)          World War Z 2 (WWZ2) 150000 100.00 (0.00)          Resident Evil $140M Blockbuster (RESE8.BW) 25000 12.64 (+0.14)          Charlie vs. The Chocolate Factor (CVTCF) 150000 61.49 (+0.15)          Good People Bad Things (GPBT) 40000 9.32 (-0.01)          Fear the Reaper (FREPR) 150000 17.66 (-0.06)          World War Z 2 (WWZ2) 150000 100.00 (0.00)          The Rule of Three (RULO3) 150000 14.18 (-0.10)          Star Wars: Starfighter (SWAR4) 22000 293.01 (-0.32)          The Exorcist: Martyrs (TEXO2) 35000 61.53 (-0.37)          X-Men aka Mutants (XMEN8) 50000 222.96 (-0.66)          World War Hulk (THLK2) 10000 29.02 (-0.06)          World War Z 2 (WWZ2) 150000 100.00 (0.00)          World War Z 2 (WWZ2) 150000 100.00 (0.00)          World War Z 2 (WWZ2) 150000 100.00 (0.00)          The Mosquito Bowl (MSQTB) 10000 2.49 (-0.08)          A Talent for Murder (SWITZ) 90000 2.47 (+0.01)          Klara and the Sun (KLARA) 40000 3.40 (-0.02)          Ramayana (RAMAY) 10000 17.95 (+0.22)          Clayface (CLAYF) 30000 59.34 (-1.59)          Christmas At The Kringles (CKRNG) 149000 2.75 (-1.81)          Clayface (CLAYF) 10000 59.34 (-1.59)          The Horror Fund X (SPOOK) 20000 62.26 (+0.11)          Obey (OBEY) 6233 21.31 (-0.09)          Queen at Sea (QUASE) 150000 0.29 (+0.04)          Ghost Soldier - Opening Weekend (ARCNG.OW) 1 5.09 (-0.04)          The Only Living Pickpocket in Ne (OLPNY) 149000 4.14 (+1.87)