SPIN FACTOR®

The HSX Blog



Whisper Numbers: Is Avatar about to change the course of movies?

Twelve years after directing his last feature film Titanic, the self-proclaimed ‘King of the World’ James Cameron [JCAME] is back to reclaim his throne with the sci-fi adventure Avatar [AVATR].  Using state-of-the-art 3D and performance capture technology, Cameron has created a world that seamlessly merged live-action with CG animation.   Although the trailers were initially met with skepticism, the finished film has garnered overwhelming positive, glowing reviews.  The film that set out to be an industry “game changer” has actually met the lofty expectation.  Fox marketing has been in overdrive positioning the $400 million movie as a must-experience 3D event. The buzz will only grow as the first midnight screenings let out.  I Am Legend’s December record of $77.2 million may be at risk.  The higher 3D ticket prices should compensate for the longer 160 minutes running time.  Descending upon 3453 theaters, Avatar could blow away $80 million.

Disney’s G-rated animated musical The Princess and the Frog [FROGP] should display long legs at the box office with the upcoming school break for the holidays.   A decay around 25% would give The Princess and the Frog $18 million and second place.

Sarah Jessica Parker [SJPAR] and Hugh Grant [HGRAN] pair up for the PG-13 rated romantic comedy Did You Hear About the Morgans? [MRGNS].   The film’s target demographic may be more interesting in shopping on the last weekend before Christmas than checking out yet another story about city slickers in the boondocks discovering themselves.  Opening in 2718 theaters, the Morgans may settle down with roughly $11 million.

Despite the A-list talent involved with Invictus [INVIC], American moviegoers were apparently not too interested in South African politics or the sport of Rugby.   The film’s older target audience may be waiting on reviews, which are generally favorable. In its sophomore frame, Invictus may decline around 30% to $6 million.

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.



Tag(s): JCAME, AVATR, FROGP, SJPAR, HGRAN, MRGNS, INVIC

View more Blog posts »



By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, December 17, 2009 @ 04:08 PM 4085 views

Recent Comments

    No recent comments.



The Unknown (TUNKN) 150000 1.48 (-0.02)          Charles Melton (CMELT) 25000 47.82 (-0.33)          Coyote vs. ACME (CVACM) 15000 49.09 (+2.40)          Ali G: Who Iz I? (ALIG2) 15000 21.79 (+1.07)          Alan Ritchson (ARITC) 25000 62.05 (-0.25)          The End of Oak Street - Opening (FLWVS.OW) 34990 28.63 (-0.04)          Star Wars: Dawn of the Jedi (STRW1) 149999 76.52 (+0.55)          The End of Oak Street H$30 Call (FLWVS.CA) 24995 1.77 (-0.06)          Angelina Jolie (AJOLI) 25000 59.32 (+0.17)          Alexander Skarsgard (ASKAR) 1 8.55 (-0.05)          The Haunting of Hotel Transylvan (HTRN5) 150000 73.30 (+2.22)          Super Troopers 3 (STRO3) 149999 24.32 (+0.15)          Alexander Skarsgard (ASKAR) 1 8.55 (-0.05)          Star Trek (TREK4) 149999 24.38 (-0.16)          The Gauntlet (GNTLT) 149999 33.10 (-0.20)          The Batman: Part II (TBAT2) 68575 265.89 (-0.56)          NDA (NDA) 150000 7.57 (-0.54)          The Haunting of Hotel Transylvan (HTRN5) 150000 73.30 (+2.22)          The Partner (PRTNR) 73752 46.22 (+0.06)          Five Nights at Freddy's 3 (5NAF3) 3000 80.79 (0.00)          Blade (BLAD1) 150000 16.67 (-0.11)          Dynamic Duo (DYDUO) 150000 122.76 (+0.88)          Dynamic Duo (DYDUO) 150000 122.76 (+0.88)          Spider-Man: Brand New Day (SPID9) 1 590.89 (+0.83)          Paddington 4 (PADT4) 477 37.32 (+0.06)          Seth Rogen (SROGE) 25000 66.75 (+0.25)          The End of Oak Street (FLWVS) 149999 87.42 (-2.26)          The Haunting of Hotel Transylvan (HTRN5) 100000 73.30 (+2.22)          The End of Oak Street (FLWVS) 150000 87.42 (-2.26)          Top Gun 3 (TOPG3) 22 184.55 (0.00)          Spider-Man: Brand New Day (SPID9) 150000 590.89 (+0.83)          Penelope Cruz (PCRUZ) 25000 9.37 (+0.10)          Misty Green (MSTYG) 150000 14.54 (+1.42)          Misty Green (MSTYG) 150000 14.54 (+1.42)          White Elephant (WELEP) 3000 13.98 (-0.10)          The Haunting of Hotel Transylvan (HTRN5) 150000 73.30 (+2.22)          Welcome to the Jungle (WLCM3) 150000 0.93 (+0.01)          Night Nurse (NTNRS) 150000 0.39 (-0.01)          Sheep in the Box (SHPBX) 150000 0.70 (-0.02)          White Elephant (WELEP) 150000 13.98 (-0.10)          Lakeith Stanfield (LSTAN) 15000 9.50 (+0.03)          The Worst (TWORS) 150000 6.48 (-0.10)          Star Trek (TREK4) 1 24.38 (-0.16)          Anything But Ghosts (ANYBG) 75000 24.15 (+0.03)          Star Trek (TREK4) 150000 24.38 (-0.16)          Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mu (TMNT4) 150000 78.85 (0.00)          Tommy Karate (TKART) 1 15.96 (+0.12)          Alien sequel (ALIE6) 75000 58.41 (+0.08)          Tommy Karate (TKART) 25000 15.96 (+0.12)          The Odyssey (ODYSE) 150000 421.50 (+1.28)