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Whisper Numbers: Is Avatar about to change the course of movies?

Twelve years after directing his last feature film Titanic, the self-proclaimed ‘King of the World’ James Cameron [JCAME] is back to reclaim his throne with the sci-fi adventure Avatar [AVATR].  Using state-of-the-art 3D and performance capture technology, Cameron has created a world that seamlessly merged live-action with CG animation.   Although the trailers were initially met with skepticism, the finished film has garnered overwhelming positive, glowing reviews.  The film that set out to be an industry “game changer” has actually met the lofty expectation.  Fox marketing has been in overdrive positioning the $400 million movie as a must-experience 3D event. The buzz will only grow as the first midnight screenings let out.  I Am Legend’s December record of $77.2 million may be at risk.  The higher 3D ticket prices should compensate for the longer 160 minutes running time.  Descending upon 3453 theaters, Avatar could blow away $80 million.

Disney’s G-rated animated musical The Princess and the Frog [FROGP] should display long legs at the box office with the upcoming school break for the holidays.   A decay around 25% would give The Princess and the Frog $18 million and second place.

Sarah Jessica Parker [SJPAR] and Hugh Grant [HGRAN] pair up for the PG-13 rated romantic comedy Did You Hear About the Morgans? [MRGNS].   The film’s target demographic may be more interesting in shopping on the last weekend before Christmas than checking out yet another story about city slickers in the boondocks discovering themselves.  Opening in 2718 theaters, the Morgans may settle down with roughly $11 million.

Despite the A-list talent involved with Invictus [INVIC], American moviegoers were apparently not too interested in South African politics or the sport of Rugby.   The film’s older target audience may be waiting on reviews, which are generally favorable. In its sophomore frame, Invictus may decline around 30% to $6 million.

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.



Tag(s): JCAME, AVATR, FROGP, SJPAR, HGRAN, MRGNS, INVIC

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, December 17, 2009 @ 04:08 PM 3648 views

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XXX 4 (XXX4) 150000 2.22 (-0.01)          Gremlins 3 (GREM3) 100000 0.82 (-0.01)          Methuselah (METHU) 100000 0.17 (-0.01)          Sherlock Holmes 3 (HOLM3) 100000 20.51 (-0.02)          Muscle (MUSCL) 100000 1.51 (-0.01)          Dracula - Universal (DRCUL) 150000 17.27 (-0.06)          Madden (MADEN) 150000 27.41 (+1.49)          Kung Fury 2 (KFURY) 150000 0.06 (-0.01)          Cleopatra - Paramount (CEOPT) 150000 12.46 (-0.04)          The Lost Boys (LOSTB) 150000 4.33 (-0.06)          Tomb Raider (TOMB4) 150000 3.17 (-0.02)          Flowervale Street (FLWVS) 1234 42.33 (+0.30)          Escape From New York (ESCNY) 100000 6.40 (-0.01)          Midas Man (MIDAS) 150000 0.09 (-0.02)          The War Magician (WARMG) 150000 4.61 (-0.03)          Madden (MADEN) 1234 27.41 (+1.49)          Black Five (BLAC5) 150000 2.01 (0.00)          Michael (MJACK) 123 62.43 (+0.25)          Coyote vs. ACME (CVACM) 1234 17.19 (+0.02)          Back to Black (BTBLK) 133000 21.44 (+0.44)          Tom Hanks (THANK) 25000 66.97 (-0.25)          Forest Whitaker (FWHIT) 25000 56.08 (-0.16)          Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (AELLI) 25000 22.68 (0.00)          Jessica Chastain (JCHAS) 25000 6.29 (-0.05)          Kraven the Hunter (KRAVN) 150000 104.15 (-0.44)          The Princess Diaries 3 (PDIA3) 149999 9.16 (+0.05)          Anora (ANORA) 150000 4.13 (+0.77)          Wonder Woman 3 (WOND3) 150000 23.84 (0.00)          Jumanji sequel (JUMN3) 150000 74.02 (-0.50)          The Substance (SBSTN) 149999 9.12 (-0.01)          Cuckoo (CUCKO) 30999 5.60 (+0.01)          Coyote vs. ACME (CVACM) 150000 17.19 (+0.02)          Alita: Battle Angel 2 (ALIT2) 150000 36.84 (0.00)          Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy (BJON4) 150000 8.55 (+0.11)          Heads of State (HDSST) 150000 19.04 (0.00)          Legally Blonde 3 (BLON3) 150000 18.71 (-0.02)          Uncharted 2 (UNCH2) 150000 33.25 (0.00)          Green Lantern Corps (GLAN2) 150000 8.14 (+0.01)          Canary Black (CNARY) 150000 7.07 (0.00)          Cruella 2 (CRUL2) 150000 28.01 (0.00)          Bride of Frankenstein (BRIDF) 150000 1.11 (-0.01)          Wonder Woman 3 (WOND3) 150000 23.84 (0.00)          Jumanji sequel (JUMN3) 150000 74.02 (-0.50)          Coyote vs. ACME (CVACM) 150000 17.19 (+0.02)          Alita: Battle Angel 2 (ALIT2) 150000 36.84 (0.00)          Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy (BJON4) 150000 8.55 (+0.11)          Heads of State (HDSST) 150000 19.04 (0.00)          Legally Blonde 3 (BLON3) 150000 18.71 (-0.02)          Uncharted 2 (UNCH2) 150000 33.25 (0.00)          Green Lantern Corps (GLAN2) 100000 8.14 (+0.01)