SPIN FACTOR®

The HSX Blog



Whisper Numbers: Will Iron Man 2 beat The Dark Knight?

The 2010 summer movie season blasts off with the return of a Marvel Comic superhero in Iron Man 2 [IRNM2].  Robert Downey Jr. [RDOWN] returns as the man in the iron suit, Tony Stark, along with Gwenyth Paltrow [GPALT] as Pepper Potts. Don Cheadle [DCHEA] takes over the role of James Rhodes, who suits up as War Machine. Also joining the cast are Mickey Rourke [MROUR], Sam Rockwell [SROCK] and Scarlett Johansson [SJOHA].  The first Iron Man opened at $102 million and was universally loved by audiences. With tremendous goodwill built up, the sequel will have more moviegoers feel the must-see urge opening weekend.  Trackings indicate the record $158 million debut set by The Dark Knight is within striking distance.  Iron Man 2 has already taken one record from The Dark Knight as the widest release ever at 4380 theaters.  Unlike The Dark Knight however, Iron Man 2 reviews are not as stellar as its predecessor.  Fortunately, the fan favorite is review-proof opening weekend.  With not even a romantic comedy counter-programmed as competition, Iron Man 2 has an open field to punch out $160 million. 

A Nightmare on Elm Street [NELMS] was heavily front-loaded on the Friday of its opening weekend.  The Friday the 13th reboot plummeted 80% in its second weekend last year.  A Nightmare on Elm Street could tumble more than 65% to $11 million.

How to Train Your Dragon looks to cross the $200 million mark with another $6 million in its 7th weekend of release.

Focus Features is opening the documentary Babies [BABIS] in 534 theaters to take advantage of Mother’s Day.  Babies could crack the top ten with around $3 million. 

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.




Tag(s): IRNM2, RDOWN, GPALT, DCHEA, MROUR, SROCK, SJOHA, NELMS, BABIS

View more Blog posts »



By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, May 6, 2010 @ 04:04 PM 4164 views

Recent Comments

    No recent comments.



Avatar: Fire and Ash - Opening W (AVAT3.OW) 1 110.01 (-1.73)          Dune: Part Three aka Dune: Messi (DUNE3) 150000 223.43 (+1.49)          Marty Supreme H$10 Put (MRTSU.PU) 25000 1.56 (0.00)          They Follow aka It Follows 2 (TFLW2) 100000 6.12 (-0.03)          Marty Supreme - Opening Weekend (MRTSU.OW) 100000 11.99 (+0.06)          Bullitt (BULIT) 40000 22.26 (-0.03)          Avatar: Fire and Ash (AVAT3) 150000 436.62 (-2.54)          The Christophers (CHRIS) 100000 9.19 (-0.05)          Cloverfield 2 (CLOV2) 100000 13.90 (-0.06)          Day Drinker (DRNKR) 100000 13.88 (-0.06)          Maserati: The Brothers (MASER) 100000 6.12 (-0.05)          In the Grey (NGREY) 100000 14.75 (-0.06)          Shackleton (SHCKL) 100000 4.10 (-0.05)          Avatar: Fire and Ash (AVAT3) 150000 436.62 (-2.54)          Avatar: Fire and Ash (AVAT3) 150000 436.62 (-2.54)          Soulm8te (SOM8T) 40000 10.43 (-0.05)          Deep Water (DEEPW) 100000 5.57 (-0.10)          Digger (DIGER) 3000 102.24 (+0.01)          Peaked (PEAKD) 100000 7.93 (-0.39)          Babies (BBIES) 100000 12.32 (-1.33)          The Memory Police (TMEMP) 150000 5.82 (-0.05)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4.PU) 25000 5.67 (+0.03)          Avatar: Fire and Ash H$125 Call (AVAT3.CA) 25000 1.67 (-0.26)          Avatar: Fire and Ash H$125 Put (AVAT3.PU) 25000 4.78 (+0.34)          Avatar: Fire and Ash - Opening W (AVAT3.OW) 100000 110.01 (-1.73)          Avatar: Fire and Ash - Opening W (AVAT3.OW) 100000 110.01 (-1.73)          The Bride! (BRIDE) 150000 54.01 (-0.20)          Star Trek (TREK4) 149999 33.33 (+0.09)          The Wrecking Crew (WCREW) 150000 9.69 (-0.07)          Idris Elba (IELBA) 25000 113.21 (0.00)          Fellowship (FELWS) 150000 14.36 (-0.64)          Jumanji sequel (JUMN3) 149999 152.02 (+0.44)          Dust Bunny (DUSTB) 150000 2.64 (0.00)          Primate (PRIMT) 77777 19.60 (+0.04)          Idris Elba (IELBA) 25000 113.21 (0.00)          Song Sung Blue - Opening Weekend (SSBLU.OW) 100000 11.65 (-0.10)          Song Sung Blue - Opening Weekend (SSBLU.OW) 100000 11.65 (-0.10)          Fellowship (FELWS) 150000 14.36 (-0.64)          Avatar: Fire and Ash H$125 Put (AVAT3.PU) 25000 4.78 (+0.34)          Wicked: For Good $315M Blockbust (WCKD2.BW) 25000 7.77 (+0.06)          Love is Not the Answer (LINTA) 20071 6.09 (+1.28)          Split Fiction (SPFIC) 150000 42.06 (-1.35)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4.OW) 100000 18.78 (+0.10)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4.OW) 100000 18.78 (+0.10)          The Chaperones (CHAPR) 150000 10.21 (+0.50)          The Chaperones (CHAPR) 150000 10.21 (+0.50)          Babies (BBIES) 150000 12.32 (-1.33)          Alone Together (ALTGT) 500 4.08 (+0.36)          A Great Awakening (AGAWK) 500 10.55 (+1.03)          Love is Not the Answer (LINTA) 500 6.09 (+1.28)