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Whisper Numbers: Will Iron Man 2 beat The Dark Knight?

The 2010 summer movie season blasts off with the return of a Marvel Comic superhero in Iron Man 2 [IRNM2].  Robert Downey Jr. [RDOWN] returns as the man in the iron suit, Tony Stark, along with Gwenyth Paltrow [GPALT] as Pepper Potts. Don Cheadle [DCHEA] takes over the role of James Rhodes, who suits up as War Machine. Also joining the cast are Mickey Rourke [MROUR], Sam Rockwell [SROCK] and Scarlett Johansson [SJOHA].  The first Iron Man opened at $102 million and was universally loved by audiences. With tremendous goodwill built up, the sequel will have more moviegoers feel the must-see urge opening weekend.  Trackings indicate the record $158 million debut set by The Dark Knight is within striking distance.  Iron Man 2 has already taken one record from The Dark Knight as the widest release ever at 4380 theaters.  Unlike The Dark Knight however, Iron Man 2 reviews are not as stellar as its predecessor.  Fortunately, the fan favorite is review-proof opening weekend.  With not even a romantic comedy counter-programmed as competition, Iron Man 2 has an open field to punch out $160 million. 

A Nightmare on Elm Street [NELMS] was heavily front-loaded on the Friday of its opening weekend.  The Friday the 13th reboot plummeted 80% in its second weekend last year.  A Nightmare on Elm Street could tumble more than 65% to $11 million.

How to Train Your Dragon looks to cross the $200 million mark with another $6 million in its 7th weekend of release.

Focus Features is opening the documentary Babies [BABIS] in 534 theaters to take advantage of Mother’s Day.  Babies could crack the top ten with around $3 million. 

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.




Tag(s): IRNM2, RDOWN, GPALT, DCHEA, MROUR, SROCK, SJOHA, NELMS, BABIS

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, May 6, 2010 @ 04:04 PM 4163 views

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Avatar: Fire and Ash H$125 Call (AVAT3.CA) 25000 1.73 (-0.20)          Avatar: Fire and Ash H$125 Call (AVAT3.CA) 25000 1.73 (-0.20)          Avatar: Fire and Ash H$125 Put (AVAT3.PU) 25000 4.68 (+0.24)          Avatar: Fire and Ash - Opening W (AVAT3.OW) 100000 110.74 (-1.00)          EPiC: Elvis Presley in Concert (EPICC) 149999 12.88 (-0.10)          Josh Brolin (JBROL) 300 114.70 (0.00)          A Minecraft Movie II (MINE2) 900 293.88 (-0.25)          Ebenezer: A Christmas Carol (EBNZR) 900 67.17 (-0.02)          Helen Mirren (HMIRR) 50 95.99 (0.00)          A Great Awakening (AGAWK) 150000 10.29 (+0.77)          A Great Awakening (AGAWK) 150000 10.29 (+0.77)          Split Fiction (SPFIC) 150000 41.97 (-1.44)          Split Fiction (SPFIC) 150000 41.97 (-1.44)          Fellowship (FELWS) 150000 14.72 (-0.28)          Babies (BBIES) 150000 12.66 (-0.99)          Emory Cohen (ECOHE) 100 11.14 (0.00)          Avatar: Fire and Ash (AVAT3) 150000 437.89 (-1.27)          A Great Awakening (AGAWK) 149999 10.29 (+0.77)          A Great Awakening (AGAWK) 150000 10.29 (+0.77)          Avatar: Fire and Ash - Opening W (AVAT3.OW) 100000 110.74 (-1.00)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4.PU) 25000 5.64 (0.00)          Coyote vs. ACME (CVACM) 150000 33.57 (+0.37)          Daniela Melchior (DMELC) 100 105.20 (0.00)          The Moment (MOMNT) 149999 11.21 (+0.57)          Avatar: Fire and Ash H$125 Call (AVAT3.CA) 25000 1.73 (-0.20)          The Moment (MOMNT) 150000 11.21 (+0.57)          Avatar: Fire and Ash H$125 Put (AVAT3.PU) 25000 4.68 (+0.24)          Christine (CRSTN) 149999 17.94 (+0.56)          David H$25 Put (DAVID.PU) 25000 3.23 (0.00)          Christine (CRSTN) 150000 17.94 (+0.56)          Split Fiction (SPFIC) 149999 41.97 (-1.44)          Avatar: Fire and Ash - Opening W (AVAT3.OW) 100000 110.74 (-1.00)          Coyote vs. ACME (CVACM) 149999 33.57 (+0.37)          Avatar: Fire and Ash H$125 Put (AVAT3.PU) 25000 4.68 (+0.24)          Coyote vs. ACME (CVACM) 150000 33.57 (+0.37)          Avatar: Fire and Ash H$125 Call (AVAT3.CA) 25000 1.73 (-0.20)          Avatar: Fire and Ash (AVAT3) 150000 437.89 (-1.27)          Babies (BBIES) 150000 12.66 (-0.99)          Craig Brewer (CBREW) 90 30.70 (0.00)          Fast Forever aka Fast X Part 2 (FAF11) 3 111.56 (+0.11)          Fast Forever aka Fast X Part 2 (FAF11) 3 111.56 (+0.11)          Dracula - A Love Tale (DRALT) 3 7.09 (+0.16)          Dracula - A Love Tale (DRALT) 3 7.09 (+0.16)          Christopher Abbott (CABBO) 100 15.90 (0.00)          Girls Like Girls (GRLGR) 3 6.62 (+0.21)          Girls Like Girls (GRLGR) 3 6.62 (+0.21)          Dune: Part Three aka Dune: Messi (DUNE3) 3 222.77 (+0.83)          Dune: Part Three aka Dune: Messi (DUNE3) 3 222.77 (+0.83)          Elden Ring (ELDEN) 1 41.52 (+0.94)          Elden Ring (ELDEN) 1 41.52 (+0.94)