SPIN FACTOR®

The HSX Blog



Whisper Numbers: Aquaman vs. Mary Poppins vs. Bumblebee, oh my

After decades as the butt of jokes in the suphero world of DC Comics, Aquaman [AQUMN] is poised to conquer the box office. Jason Momoa [JMOMO] first played the role in Justice League, which opened to $93.8 million in November 2017. The stand-alone Aquaman explores the origins of the half-human, half-Atlantean, who is called upon to reclaim his rightful place in the underwater kingdom. Director James Wan [JWAN] has embraced the superhero’s eccentricity and delivered on CG spectacles. The PG-13 rated adventure has generated positive buzz and reviews. Advance ticket sales have surpassed Wonder Woman, which opened to $103.2 million in June 2017. Some of those sales are for the Christmas break next week, so Aquaman may not cross the century mark over 3 days. Diving into 4125 theaters, Aquaman looks to surface with $82 million.

Mary Poppins Returns [MPOPN] after 54 years with Emily Blunt [EBLUN] in the title role. The 1964 musical is a classic seen by multiple generations of Disney fans. Lin-Manuel Miranda [LMIRA] costars in the PG-rated sequel directed by Rob Marshall [RMARS]. Mary Poppins Returns opened on Wednesday and grossed $4.8 million. Advance ticket sales are ahead of Jumanji, which banked $52.7 million during its first 5 days. Mary Poppins Returns should deliver similar results with $50 million through Sunday from 4090 locations.

Paramount reboots the Transformers franchise with Bumblebee [TFRM6] and without director Michael Bay. Set during the 1980s, the PG-rated prequel features Autobots and Decepticons that look more like the original toys. The family-friendly Bumblebee has received the best reviews in the series, which will help to bring back adult fans that grew up with the cartoons. Advance ticket sales are outpacing Transformers: The Last Knight, which debuted at $4.7 million. Rolling into 3550 theaters, Bumblebee could stick $45 million.

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse [ASPDR] has excellent word of mouth, but faces heavy competition. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse could drop 45% in its sophomore frame to $19 million. The Mule [TMULE] will enjoy long legs due to its older fanbase. The Mule looks to hold about 65% from its debut for $11.5 million.

Jennifer Lopez [JLOPE] toplines the PG-13 rated romantic comedy Second Act [2NDAC]. Her last film The Boy Next Door opened to $14.9 million during a less crowded January weekend. The female target audience may hold off until after the busy first weekend. Second Act could earn $9 million from 2607 theaters.

Welcome to Marwen [MARWN] is likely to bring up the rear among the new wide releases. Despite having director Robert Zemeckis [RZEME], the PG-13 rated fantasy has received some of the worse reviews of the year. Universal’s marketing campaign has been unappealing. Released in just 1911 theaters, Welcome to Marwen may not hit $8 million.

Two Oscar-bait films expands wide this weekend. The Favourite [FVRIT] could net $4 million in its fifth weekend from 790 theaters, while Mary Queen of Scots [MQOFS] could draw $3 million during its second weekend from 795 theaters.

That’s the whisper on the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): AQUMN, JMOMO, JWAN, MPOPN, EBLUN, LMIRA, RMARS, TFRM6, ASPDR, TMULE, JLOPE, 2NDAC, MARWN, RZEME, FVRIT, MQOFS

View more Blog posts »



By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, December 20, 2018 @ 03:11 PM 1274 views

Recent Comments

    No recent comments.


twitter

@HSXMOVIES on Twitter





Follow HSX on Twitter!


The Bob's Burgers Movie flipped an estimated $5.7M Friday at the #boxoffice… https://t.co/q3K1c94umP       Top Gun: Maverick cruises to an estimated $51.8 million Friday and a projected $123 million 3-day weekend at the…       Top Gun: Maverick banked an estimated $19.26M in Tuesday through Thursday previews at the #boxoffice #TopGunMaverick       The Bob's Burgers Movie rung up an estimated $1.5M in Thursday previews at the #boxoffice #BobsBurgersMovie       Top Gun: Maverick will take off in a record 4735 theaters, the widest release ever #TopGun… https://t.co/p1fdyKuQGF       First Look at Indiana Jones 5 starring Harrison Ford #IndianaJones https://t.co/YXUSE3ynlU       First trailer for #Devotion starring Jonathan Majors and Glen Powell https://t.co/9zVlXrEDBC       Top Gun: Maverick is currently trading at a $109M Opening Weekend Fri-Mon on #HSX. Should you Buy, Sell or Hold?…       The Bob's Burgers Movie is currently trading at a $11.4M Opening Weekend Fri-Mon on #HSX. Should you Buy, Sell or H…       Brian Tyree Henry to star in Flint Strong, now at MGM #FlintStrong      
Hitman (HTMAN) 50000 14.16 (-0.84)         All Fun and Games (AFNGM) 150000 2.86 (-0.02)         Clue (CLUE) 1000 11.41 (-0.05)         Women Talking (WMTLK) 9000 3.70 (-0.05)         Untitled SpaceX Project (SPACX) 150000 50.00 (0.00)         Women Talking (WMTLK) 9000 3.70 (-0.05)         A Quiet Place: Day One (AQPL3) 20000 72.39 (-0.05)         Elvis (ELVIS) 25000 85.61 (+0.10)         Women Talking (WMTLK) 150000 3.70 (-0.05)         Untitled SpaceX Project (SPACX) 1 50.00 (0.00)         The Long Walk (TLWLK) 1000 22.51 (-0.24)         Jurassic World: Dominion (JURA6.OW) 2405 153.62 (+1.01)         Cruella 2 (CRUL2) 9000 42.58 (-0.46)         Aladdin 2 (ALAD2) 1000 74.51 (-0.25)         Cruella 2 (CRUL2) 9000 42.58 (-0.46)         Untitled SpaceX Project (SPACX) 150000 50.00 (0.00)         Cruella 2 (CRUL2) 150000 42.58 (-0.46)         Jurassic World: Dominion (JURA6) 5924 321.93 (+0.54)         Antoine Fuqua (AFUQU) 25000 85.03 (-0.25)         Meet Cute (MCUTE) 9000 2.26 (-0.01)         Meet Cute (MCUTE) 9000 2.26 (-0.01)         Untitled SpaceX Project (SPACX) 50000 50.00 (0.00)         Bad Boys 4 (BADB4) 1000 48.71 (+0.10)         Meet Cute (MCUTE) 150000 2.26 (-0.01)         Untitled SpaceX Project (SPACX) 150000 50.00 (0.00)         Till (TILL) 3000 8.33 (+0.02)         The Saint (TSAIN) 9000 22.43 (+0.15)         Meryl Streep (MSTRE) 25000 101.68 (-0.33)         The Saint (TSAIN) 9000 22.43 (+0.15)         Avatar 3: The Seed Bearer (AVAT3) 999 377.23 (-0.44)         The Saint (TSAIN) 150000 22.43 (+0.15)         Omar Chaparro (OCHAP) 25000 35.09 (0.00)         The Unbreakable Boy (UNBOY) 1999 16.59 (+0.04)         Jack Reynor (JREYN) 25000 15.22 (0.00)         Call of Duty (CODUT) 9000 2.84 (-0.04)         The Unbreakable Boy (UNBOY) 999 16.59 (+0.04)         Call of Duty (CODUT) 9000 2.84 (-0.04)         Call of Duty (CODUT) 150000 2.84 (-0.04)         Patty Jenkins (PJENK) 25000 106.62 (+0.33)         Hobbs & Shaw 2 (FFHS2) 1000 55.56 (+0.06)         God Is A Bullet (GODAB) 9000 2.79 (-0.05)         Doctor Strange in the Multiverse (DRST2) 3099 378.21 (+1.01)         God Is A Bullet (GODAB) 9000 2.79 (-0.05)         Hobbs & Shaw 2 (FFHS2) 2000 55.56 (+0.06)         God Is A Bullet (GODAB) 150000 2.79 (-0.05)         PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie (PAWP2) 1000 26.37 (+0.40)         On the Run (OTRUN) 9000 2.05 (-0.06)         Superman (SUPRM) 10000 86.54 (-0.18)         On the Run (OTRUN) 9000 2.05 (-0.06)         On the Run (OTRUN) 150000 2.05 (-0.06)