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Whisper Numbers: Aquaman vs. Mary Poppins vs. Bumblebee, oh my

After decades as the butt of jokes in the suphero world of DC Comics, Aquaman [AQUMN] is poised to conquer the box office. Jason Momoa [JMOMO] first played the role in Justice League, which opened to $93.8 million in November 2017. The stand-alone Aquaman explores the origins of the half-human, half-Atlantean, who is called upon to reclaim his rightful place in the underwater kingdom. Director James Wan [JWAN] has embraced the superhero’s eccentricity and delivered on CG spectacles. The PG-13 rated adventure has generated positive buzz and reviews. Advance ticket sales have surpassed Wonder Woman, which opened to $103.2 million in June 2017. Some of those sales are for the Christmas break next week, so Aquaman may not cross the century mark over 3 days. Diving into 4125 theaters, Aquaman looks to surface with $82 million.

Mary Poppins Returns [MPOPN] after 54 years with Emily Blunt [EBLUN] in the title role. The 1964 musical is a classic seen by multiple generations of Disney fans. Lin-Manuel Miranda [LMIRA] costars in the PG-rated sequel directed by Rob Marshall [RMARS]. Mary Poppins Returns opened on Wednesday and grossed $4.8 million. Advance ticket sales are ahead of Jumanji, which banked $52.7 million during its first 5 days. Mary Poppins Returns should deliver similar results with $50 million through Sunday from 4090 locations.

Paramount reboots the Transformers franchise with Bumblebee [TFRM6] and without director Michael Bay. Set during the 1980s, the PG-rated prequel features Autobots and Decepticons that look more like the original toys. The family-friendly Bumblebee has received the best reviews in the series, which will help to bring back adult fans that grew up with the cartoons. Advance ticket sales are outpacing Transformers: The Last Knight, which debuted at $4.7 million. Rolling into 3550 theaters, Bumblebee could stick $45 million.

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse [ASPDR] has excellent word of mouth, but faces heavy competition. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse could drop 45% in its sophomore frame to $19 million. The Mule [TMULE] will enjoy long legs due to its older fanbase. The Mule looks to hold about 65% from its debut for $11.5 million.

Jennifer Lopez [JLOPE] toplines the PG-13 rated romantic comedy Second Act [2NDAC]. Her last film The Boy Next Door opened to $14.9 million during a less crowded January weekend. The female target audience may hold off until after the busy first weekend. Second Act could earn $9 million from 2607 theaters.

Welcome to Marwen [MARWN] is likely to bring up the rear among the new wide releases. Despite having director Robert Zemeckis [RZEME], the PG-13 rated fantasy has received some of the worse reviews of the year. Universal’s marketing campaign has been unappealing. Released in just 1911 theaters, Welcome to Marwen may not hit $8 million.

Two Oscar-bait films expands wide this weekend. The Favourite [FVRIT] could net $4 million in its fifth weekend from 790 theaters, while Mary Queen of Scots [MQOFS] could draw $3 million during its second weekend from 795 theaters.

That’s the whisper on the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): AQUMN, JMOMO, JWAN, MPOPN, EBLUN, LMIRA, RMARS, TFRM6, ASPDR, TMULE, JLOPE, 2NDAC, MARWN, RZEME, FVRIT, MQOFS

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, December 20, 2018 @ 03:11 PM 1565 views

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Jacob Batalon (JBATA) 15000 104.67 (-0.20)          Better Man (BETRM) 22999 28.20 (-0.03)          Better Man (BETRM) 29999 28.20 (-0.03)          Young Woman and the Sea (YWATS) 150000 11.83 (+1.27)          Twilight of the Warriors: Walled (TOWWI) 69999 1.79 (-0.02)          OVERLORD: The Sacred Kingdom (OLTSK) 150000 8.78 (-1.22)          Twilight of the Warriors: Walled (TOWWI) 60000 1.79 (-0.02)          Love Me (LOVME) 29999 3.40 (+0.02)          Love Me (LOVME) 49999 3.40 (+0.02)          Crime 101 (CRIM1) 105925 35.57 (+0.62)          Eternity (ETERN) 30000 17.10 (+0.04)          The Garfield Movie (GRFLD) 150000 89.50 (-1.47)          The Garfield Movie (GRFLD) 150000 89.50 (-1.47)          Crime 101 (CRIM1) 105925 35.57 (+0.62)          Die, My Love (DIMLV) 100000 7.70 (+0.12)          Avatar 3 (AVAT3) 9590 417.48 (-0.21)          Reagan (REAGN) 150000 7.71 (+0.88)          Reagan (REAGN) 150000 7.71 (+0.88)          Alien: Romulus (ALIE5) 5000 64.73 (+0.30)          Haikyu!! The Dumpster Battle (HAIKY) 150000 11.23 (-0.15)          The Garfield Movie (GRFLD) 20000 89.50 (-1.47)          Back to Black (BTBLK) 150000 8.69 (+0.06)          Good Luck, Have Fun, Don’t Die (GLHFD) 50000 19.24 (+0.64)          Good Luck, Have Fun, Don’t Die (GLHFD) 29999 19.24 (+0.64)          Evil Does Not Exist (EDNTE) 150000 0.69 (0.00)          Summer Camp (SUMCP) 30000 11.28 (+0.70)          Don't Tell Mom the Babysitter's (DTMBD) 150000 0.81 (+0.01)          The Beast (LBETE) 150000 0.40 (+0.01)          Reagan (REAGN) 49999 7.71 (+0.88)          Coup de Chance (CDCHN) 150000 0.41 (+0.02)          Uproar (UPROA) 150000 0.62 (+0.02)          Snack Shack (SNACK) 150000 0.45 (+0.02)          Young Woman and the Sea (YWATS) 50000 11.83 (+1.27)          Shirley (SHRLE) 150000 0.04 (0.00)          Flight Risk (FLTRS) 30000 27.07 (+1.61)          Crime 101 (CRIM1) 44075 35.57 (+0.62)          Flight Risk (FLTRS) 89999 27.07 (+1.61)          The Watchers H$15 Put (WATCS.PU) 25000 2.78 (+0.03)          The Watchers H$15 Call (WATCS.CA) 25000 1.67 (-0.05)          The Watchers - Opening Weekend (WATCS.OW) 50000 14.71 (0.00)          Haikyu!! The Dumpster Battle - O (HAIKY.OW) 100000 4.58 (+0.06)          Bad Boys: Ride or Die H$60 Put (BADB4.PU) 25000 3.62 (+0.06)          The Super Mario Bros. Movie 2 (MARI2) 34 352.95 (+0.25)          Bad Boys: Ride or Die H$60 Call (BADB4.CA) 25000 1.01 (+0.04)          Bad Boys: Ride or Die - Opening (BADB4.OW) 10000 56.35 (+0.05)          Tarot (HRSCP) 1757 17.57 (+0.02)          OVERLORD: The Sacred Kingdom (OLTSK) 7500 8.78 (-1.22)          Avantika (AVANT) 25000 30.98 (0.00)          OVERLORD: The Sacred Kingdom (OLTSK) 150000 8.78 (-1.22)          OVERLORD: The Sacred Kingdom (OLTSK) 150000 8.78 (-1.22)