SPIN FACTOR®

The HSX Blog



Whisper Numbers: Aquaman vs. Mary Poppins vs. Bumblebee, oh my

After decades as the butt of jokes in the suphero world of DC Comics, Aquaman [AQUMN] is poised to conquer the box office. Jason Momoa [JMOMO] first played the role in Justice League, which opened to $93.8 million in November 2017. The stand-alone Aquaman explores the origins of the half-human, half-Atlantean, who is called upon to reclaim his rightful place in the underwater kingdom. Director James Wan [JWAN] has embraced the superhero’s eccentricity and delivered on CG spectacles. The PG-13 rated adventure has generated positive buzz and reviews. Advance ticket sales have surpassed Wonder Woman, which opened to $103.2 million in June 2017. Some of those sales are for the Christmas break next week, so Aquaman may not cross the century mark over 3 days. Diving into 4125 theaters, Aquaman looks to surface with $82 million.

Mary Poppins Returns [MPOPN] after 54 years with Emily Blunt [EBLUN] in the title role. The 1964 musical is a classic seen by multiple generations of Disney fans. Lin-Manuel Miranda [LMIRA] costars in the PG-rated sequel directed by Rob Marshall [RMARS]. Mary Poppins Returns opened on Wednesday and grossed $4.8 million. Advance ticket sales are ahead of Jumanji, which banked $52.7 million during its first 5 days. Mary Poppins Returns should deliver similar results with $50 million through Sunday from 4090 locations.

Paramount reboots the Transformers franchise with Bumblebee [TFRM6] and without director Michael Bay. Set during the 1980s, the PG-rated prequel features Autobots and Decepticons that look more like the original toys. The family-friendly Bumblebee has received the best reviews in the series, which will help to bring back adult fans that grew up with the cartoons. Advance ticket sales are outpacing Transformers: The Last Knight, which debuted at $4.7 million. Rolling into 3550 theaters, Bumblebee could stick $45 million.

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse [ASPDR] has excellent word of mouth, but faces heavy competition. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse could drop 45% in its sophomore frame to $19 million. The Mule [TMULE] will enjoy long legs due to its older fanbase. The Mule looks to hold about 65% from its debut for $11.5 million.

Jennifer Lopez [JLOPE] toplines the PG-13 rated romantic comedy Second Act [2NDAC]. Her last film The Boy Next Door opened to $14.9 million during a less crowded January weekend. The female target audience may hold off until after the busy first weekend. Second Act could earn $9 million from 2607 theaters.

Welcome to Marwen [MARWN] is likely to bring up the rear among the new wide releases. Despite having director Robert Zemeckis [RZEME], the PG-13 rated fantasy has received some of the worse reviews of the year. Universal’s marketing campaign has been unappealing. Released in just 1911 theaters, Welcome to Marwen may not hit $8 million.

Two Oscar-bait films expands wide this weekend. The Favourite [FVRIT] could net $4 million in its fifth weekend from 790 theaters, while Mary Queen of Scots [MQOFS] could draw $3 million during its second weekend from 795 theaters.

That’s the whisper on the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): AQUMN, JMOMO, JWAN, MPOPN, EBLUN, LMIRA, RMARS, TFRM6, ASPDR, TMULE, JLOPE, 2NDAC, MARWN, RZEME, FVRIT, MQOFS

View more Blog posts »



By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, December 20, 2018 @ 03:11 PM 2177 views

Recent Comments

    No recent comments.



Owen Wilson (OWILS) 25000 19.89 (+0.20)          Owen Wilson (OWILS) 25000 19.89 (+0.20)          Goblin (GBLIN) 150000 23.58 (+0.82)          Nasty (NASTY) 150000 16.02 (+0.86)          Wildwood (WILDW) 45600 30.51 (+0.43)          Turpentine (TURPN) 150000 7.01 (-0.25)          Nasty (NASTY) 129000 16.02 (+0.86)          Turpentine (TURPN) 149999 7.01 (-0.25)          Scapegoat (SCAPG) 45700 19.38 (+0.24)          Last Friday (FRID4) 150000 14.31 (-0.67)          Last Friday (FRID4) 149999 14.31 (-0.67)          Christmas At The Kringles (CKRNG) 149999 4.73 (+0.17)          Christmas At The Kringles (CKRNG) 150000 4.73 (+0.17)          The Decline Of Fucking Western C (DOFWC) 149999 5.14 (+0.49)          Pendulum (PNDLM) 149999 13.73 (+0.47)          Pendulum (PNDLM) 150000 13.73 (+0.47)          Scapegoat (SCAPG) 149999 19.38 (+0.24)          Wildwood (WILDW) 150000 30.51 (+0.43)          Scapegoat (SCAPG) 150000 19.38 (+0.24)          Wildwood (WILDW) 150000 30.51 (+0.43)          A Life of Jesus (ALJES) 100000 5.96 (-0.02)          The Cat in the Hat (TCATH) 16200 98.58 (-0.41)          The Decline Of Fucking Western C (DOFWC) 150000 5.14 (+0.49)          4 x 4: The Event (4X4TE) 32000 8.30 (0.00)          Single Female (SIFEM) 149999 20.53 (+0.71)          Single Female (SIFEM) 150000 20.53 (+0.71)          Gold Mountain (OGMTN) 69999 15.21 (-0.02)          Turpentine (TURPN) 150000 7.01 (-0.25)          Turpentine (TURPN) 150000 7.01 (-0.25)          Gold Mountain (OGMTN) 150000 15.21 (-0.02)          Nasty (NASTY) 149999 16.02 (+0.86)          Nasty (NASTY) 150000 16.02 (+0.86)          Goblin (GBLIN) 149999 23.58 (+0.82)          Goblin (GBLIN) 150000 23.58 (+0.82)          Hero Fiennes Tiffin (HFTIF) 4000 19.68 (0.00)          King Conan (CONA2) 20000 56.74 (+0.05)          Turpentine (TURPN) 142385 7.01 (-0.25)          Anna Diop (ADIOP) 3000 67.12 (0.00)          Freddy the 13th (FREDY) 5000 58.52 (-0.05)          Lobo (LOBO) 33000 17.71 (-0.02)          Twilight of the Dead (TWOTD) 17051 3.60 (+0.01)          Guy Pearce (GPEAR) 5000 6.67 (0.00)          Guy Pearce (GPEAR) 5000 6.67 (0.00)          Pirates of the Caribbean 6 (PIRT6) 15000 33.81 (-0.03)          Drummer Boy (DRUMB) 150000 13.93 (+0.06)          Anna Sawai (ASAWA) 4000 87.65 (-0.25)          The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the (HGAM6) 150000 199.86 (+0.50)          Anna Sawai (ASAWA) 3000 87.65 (-0.25)          The Cat in the Hat (TCATH) 150000 98.58 (-0.41)          Kieran Culkin (KCULK) 993 9.84 (0.00)