SPIN FACTOR® - The HSX Blog



Whisper Numbers: The Vow looks to conquer all



The weekend box office appears set to fall for the romance The Vow [THVOW].  Based on a true story, Channing Tatum [CTATU] and Rachel McAdams [RMCAD] play a couple that tries to rekindle their love after the wife suffers amnesia following a car accident. Sony has perfectly positioned the PG-13 rated film for the prime weekend before Valentine’s Day. The tear-jerker is sure to attract couples as well as single women. Tatum and McAdams are both proven draws in romance and teaming up for the first time could push them to new personal highs for the genre. Opening 2958 theaters, The Vow could strike $33 million.

The R-rated actioner Safe House [SAFEH] returns Denzel Washington [DWASH] to a character that embraces the dark side, which proved popular with moviegoers in Training Day and American Gangster. Washington consistently delivers openings in the mid-$20Ms and Safe House shouldn’t be an exception. Ryan Reynolds [RREYN] brings some youth appeal to supplement Washington’s older fanbase. Securing 3118 theaters, Safe House could bank around $26 million.

George Lucas milks his cash cow once again by re-releasing the complete Star Wars series in 3D beginning with Episode 1 The Phantom Menace 3D [SW13D]. The first prequel was a massive hit despite being hated by older Star Wars fans. The re-release will not appeal to them, but rather to the kids that enjoyed the film in 1999 who are now young adults. Racing into 2655 theaters, The Phantom Menace 3D may uncover $25 million.

After pumping up Fast Five, Dwayne Johnson [TROCK] joins another pre-existing franchise in Journey 2: The Mysterious Island [MYSTR] taking over the lead from departing Brendan Fraser. The first film Journey to the Center of the Earth opened to $20 million in 2008 and ushered in the modern 3D craze. However, the novelty of an extra dimension has worn off as more films added 3D and its surcharge, including the re-release of The Phantom Menace this weekend. Johnson and the PG-rated film’s special effects will appeal to the male side of the family audience. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island could land $18 million from 3470 locations.

After breaking out with a $22 million debut, Chronicle [CHRNC] faces much tougher competition for young guys in its second weekend. Chronicle looks to tumble more than 50% to $10 million. Fellow sophomore film The Woman in Black [WMBLK] could also fall more than 50% to around $9 million as the female target audience opts for The Vow.

That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): THVOW, CTATU, RMCAD, SAFEH, DWASH, RREYN, SW13D, TROCK, MYSTR, CHRNC, WMBLK

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, February 9, 2012 @ 04:25 PM        8962 views


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