SPIN FACTOR®

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Whisper Numbers: Super Bowl won't deflate American Sniper

Will the biggest sporting and television event in America finally stop the momentum of American Sniper [AMSNP]? Hollywood is providing little competition this weekend against the box office phenomenon due to the Super Bowl.  After tearing through the $200 million marker, American Sniper has the $300 million goalpost clearly in sight. Even with the Super Bowl cutting into business on Sunday, American Sniper could still hold around 60% of last weekend to remain in first with around $40 million.

Paramount targets teenagers with the PG-13 rated Project Almanac [ALMNC]. The time travelling, found-footage film was originally scheduled for release last year under the title Welcome to Yesterday. The new title clearly mimics Project X, Warner Bros.’ found footage party film which opened to $21.0 million in March 2012. Earlier that same year, Fox’s found-footage sci-fi film Chronicle debuted with $22.0 million over Super Bowl weekend. However, the found-footage concept is no longer fresh today. Clocking in at 2893 theaters, Project Almanac could bring home $14.0 million.

After its decent opening last week, The Boy Next Door [BOYND] is likely drop 55% to about $6.5 million.

Kevin Costner [KCOST] stars in the PG-13 rated racial drama Black or White [BLKWH], which has received favorable reviews on a sensitive subject matter. Relativity targets older adults, but most are likely to just wait for it to reach the small screen. Costner’s starpower has diminished as Draft Day managed only a $9.8 million opening last year. Opening in1823 theaters, Black or White may divvy up $5.5 million.

Open Road has dusted off The Loft [TLOFT] from the shelf where it was previously dropped by both Warner Bros. and Universal. The R-rated thriller premiered its trailer just last month, and had little marketing outside targeted ad buys on cable TV during the last week. The Loft may post $3 million from 1841 locations.

After a month of successful platform release, A24 expands A Most Violent Year [AMVYR] wide into 818 theaters. Although the R-rated drama had excellent reviews, it failed to garner any Oscar nominations. A Most Violent Year could tally $2 million.

That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): AMSNP, ALMNC, BOYND, KCOST, BLKWH, TLOFT, AMVYR

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, January 29, 2015 @ 03:38 PM 1534 views

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Spiral aka Saw 9 (SAW9) 149999 34.78 (-0.44)         Furiosa (MMAX5) 150000 76.01 (-2.06)         Chris Pine (CPINE) 25000 114.41 (-0.66)         Peter Pan and Wendy (PTRPN) 150000 26.85 (+0.19)         Peter Pan and Wendy (PTRPN) 149999 26.85 (+0.19)         Alec Baldwin (ABALD) 100 5.89 (0.00)         Chris Pine (CPINE) 25000 114.41 (-0.66)         Lily Collins (LICOL) 100 18.16 (+0.09)         Dune (DUNE) 150000 68.63 (+0.18)         Dune (DUNE) 149999 68.63 (+0.18)         Gugu Mbatha-Raw (GMBAT) 100 64.62 (-1.02)         Top Gun: Maverick (TOPG2) 100000 135.26 (-3.70)         Top Gun: Maverick (TOPG2) 10000 135.26 (-3.70)         Carey Mulligan (CMULL) 5 6.92 (-6.55)         Top Gun: Maverick (TOPG2) 150000 135.26 (-3.70)         Adam Brody (ADBRO) 25000 35.13 (-0.45)         The Statistical Probability of L (SPLFS) 150000 6.00 (0.00)         Shazam! Fury of the Gods aka Sha (SHAZ2) 149999 117.81 (+1.03)         Haley Bennett (HBENN) 18 18.62 (0.00)         Carey Mulligan (CMULL) 24995 6.92 (-6.55)         Connie Britton (CBRIT) 20000 9.78 (-0.27)         The Tomorrow War (GDRFT) 100000 26.29 (-0.01)         Joe Bell (GJBEL) 150000 8.34 (-0.15)         Carey Mulligan (CMULL) 25000 6.92 (-6.55)         Joe Bell (GJBEL) 1 8.34 (-0.15)         Christopher Mintz-Plasse (CMINT) 25000 110.04 (0.00)         Christopher Mintz-Plasse (CMINT) 25000 110.04 (0.00)         Christopher Mintz-Plasse (CMINT) 25000 110.04 (0.00)         Connie Britton (CBRIT) 25000 9.78 (-0.27)         Connie Britton (CBRIT) 25000 9.78 (-0.27)         Adam Brody (ADBRO) 5 35.13 (-0.45)         Jennifer Coolidge (JCOOL) 20000 36.34 (+0.44)         Adam Brody (ADBRO) 24995 35.13 (-0.45)         Kristen Wiig (KWIIG) 20000 49.59 (-11.92)         Adam Brody (ADBRO) 25000 35.13 (-0.45)         The Unbreakable Boy (UNBOY) 25000 19.49 (+0.09)         Alison Brie (ABRIE) 25000 40.11 (+0.09)         Alison Brie (ABRIE) 25000 40.11 (+0.09)         The Dissident (DSDNT) 10000 0.01 (-0.01)         The Dissident (DSDNT) 100000 0.01 (-0.01)         Coming 2 America (CTAM2) 10001 12.18 (-0.05)         Fatman (FATMN) 50000 0.01 (-0.11)         The Starling (STARL) 10000 0.18 (+0.01)         The Suicide Squad (SUIC2) 25000 51.35 (-0.12)         Molly Shannon (MSHAN) 25000 35.14 (-0.27)         The Statistical Probability of L (SPLFS) 3333 6.00 (0.00)         The Sparks Brothers (SPBRO) 10000 1.59 (-0.06)         Patty Jenkins (PJENK) 25000 80.08 (-5.00)         Patty Jenkins (PJENK) 25000 80.08 (-5.00)         Pedro Pascal (PPASC) 20000 59.60 (-3.14)