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Whisper Numbers: will Shrek Forever After go out with a bang?



DreamWorks Animation brings back the green ogre for the fourth and supposedly last time in Shrek Forever After [SHRK4].   The film is marketed as "The Final Chapter", perhaps in hopes of tempting back audiences who did not enjoy the previous installment, Shrek The Third.  While that film bowed to a bountiful $121.6 million, it did not have long legs typical of the animated genre. The sequel is unlikely to match that opening even with higher ticket prices for 3D.  Audiences will nevertheless still turn out as there is little competition for family fares.  Opening in 4359 theaters, Shrek should still be flush green with around $91 million.

After a spectacular takeoff, Iron Man 2 [IRNM2] sputtered in mid-flight and nose-dived 60% in its second weekend.  The sequel looks to drop nearly 50% in its third frame to $27 million, which should be good enough for second place. 

Based on its massive cost and the talent involved, Robin Hood [RBNHD] vastly underperformed in its debut.  Since the period epic appeals to older moviegoers who may not rush out on opening weekend, Robin Hood should have a decent hold and shoot another $21 million.

There’s a reason why MacGruber [MGRUB] is the first feature adaptation of a "Saturday Night Live" skit in 10 years.  The films haven’t exactly set the box office on fire.  Will Forte [WFORT] hopes to change that with his R-rated MacGyver-esque secret agent.  Rogue Pictures has heavily marketed the film, which should give MacGruber a chance to draw its target audience of guys and bank $14 million from 2551 theaters.

The romance Letters to Juliet [LJULT] should exhibit strong legs typical of female-target films.  Letters to Juliet should round out the top five with another $8 million. 

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.

 

 



Tag(s): SHRK4, IRNM2, RBNHD, MGRUB, WFORT, LJULT

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, May 20, 2010 @ 04:01 PM        2659 views


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