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Go long on slightly more than there will be actual nominations in a category
There are 12 Nominoptions in most categories, but there will only be 5 nominees, so go long on 6 or 7 of the most likely candidates, and then short the others. As we get close to the announcement, pay attention to your choices, and reverse any that seem likely to go the wrong way. Start with the obvious choices - SSPIE for Best Director, etc. Then choose the ones that you have seen or are most comfortable making a decision about. Then make decisions about the rest. I think of the screenplay nominations as sort of second place for the director race, particularly if there is a screenplay by a director that is particularly strong. This year, that would be Wes Anderson and Moonrise Kingdom. Quentin Tarantino won Best Screenplay for Pulp Fiction, but he lost Best Director to Robert Zemeckis, who won for Forrest Gump. Last but not least, keep in mind that there are some movies or nominees for whom being nominated really is an honor, but it's just that. They won't win, but either the movie or the nominee deserves some recognition. Watch the supporting categories for this. Some of the smaller movies won't get nominated for the big categories like Picture, Director, or Screenplay, but they might get an acting nomination. My favorite example is About Schmidt. Kathy Bates and Jack Nicholson were nominated (Best Actor and Best Supporting Actress). Both of them had already won Oscars, so it was highly unlikely that they would win, and the movie wasn't quite good enough to score a major nom, but it deserved some recognition. This year, Silver Linings Playbook and The Master fall into that category. Both are on the bubble for major noms, but BCOOP plays against type, JLAWR is a rising star, and JPHOE and PSHOF are both excellent actors. So those two are more likely to score acting noms than the big ones. Same logic applies with the craft noms. Anna Karenina probably won't get a big nom, so it might get acting noms. But it's very likely to get nominated for costume design and/or production design.
any tips NomiOption? For a newbie who are playing first time? {nm} Dec 13, 18:14
Tip #1, read forums carefully and ensure you glean all of the tips/advice possible...Tip #2, see 3 posts down. :) {nm} Dec 13, 18:29
Go long on slightly more than there will be actual nominations in a category Dec 13, 18:36
short nominoptions that has lost at least .50 from its openibg {nm} Dec 14, 16:10
I bought every Nomioption stock!! Best actor, actress and best picture and other Dec 16, 07:13
Buy 5 in each category short the rest. Use your gut instinct to buy {nm} Dec 26, 20:08