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Actually, the extrapolated RS data is not all that accurate. Mean error rate for RS is 0.45 for, compared to ,,,
0.29 mean error rate for all 10 forecasts. Regarding using a subset, yes I think RS could be removed. But just using a small subset like three could result in the model just doing an average or with results just dominated by one forecaster, depending on the variance. I'll give a try, now I have the regression model working with it is pretty easy.
Btw, if you post the same set of 9/10 forecast on this forum when you get them this week, I'll put it through the model and come up with a prediction, and see if I can hit that 18% error rate.
Here are the results containing my regression model's predictions on BO, using HSXSanity Data from pre-release forecasts. Feb 25, 23:08
Wow. What happens when smart dudes get together and share #s is awesome. Thanks elchan and Mr Moore! {nm} Feb 26, 00:09
WOWZER - A Tip O' The Hat. Thanks for all of your Contributions. {nm} Feb 26, 04:03
Some initial thoughts... Feb 26, 04:34
Actually, the extrapolated RS data is not all that accurate. Mean error rate for RS is 0.45 for, compared to ,,, Feb 26, 07:18
Here are the result of a few runs: Feb 26, 08:09
Nate Silver's missing out on all the fun :) {nm} Feb 26, 08:56
