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Here are the results containing my regression model's predictions on BO, using HSXSanity Data from pre-release forecasts.
Using all the pre-release forecasts, compared to Sunday estimates, I get the following prediction rate.
Average Error/Without Theatre Count:
18.92%
Average Error/With Theatre Count:
18.30%
The theatre count improves the forecast model.
I made an excel spreadsheet containing all the prior movie predictions. Now let's see if the model works on the posteriors,
https://howprofitable.com/HsxSanityRegression.xlsx
I had to fill in some missing data, like all the missing RS forecasts. This was done, but regressing the actual Sunday estimates against the forecasts, and then extrapolating what RS would have forecast, if they had forecasted. So basically, where you have zeross, I filled in the number. You can tell they are predicted preditions, when they have multiple decimal places.
So basically with this, I can use the MTC, RS, and other numbers, and send it through my regression model and come up with a prediction pre-release that will have an error rate of just a little above 18%, if the model is accurate.
Most of the error comes from the big box office movies, which makes sense, because the forecasts themselves are not going to account for a runaway hit.
Here are the results containing my regression model's predictions on BO, using HSXSanity Data from pre-release forecasts. Feb 25, 23:08
Wow. What happens when smart dudes get together and share #s is awesome. Thanks elchan and Mr Moore! {nm} Feb 26, 00:09
WOWZER - A Tip O' The Hat. Thanks for all of your Contributions. {nm} Feb 26, 04:03
Some initial thoughts... Feb 26, 04:34
Actually, the extrapolated RS data is not all that accurate. Mean error rate for RS is 0.45 for, compared to ,,, Feb 26, 07:18
Here are the result of a few runs: Feb 26, 08:09
Nate Silver's missing out on all the fun :) {nm} Feb 26, 08:56
