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Playing & Trading Strategy

My comments.....

Posted by: MattW (a.k.a del_RGV_MattW) on Jan 17, 13:14 in response to DTshakes' post AVNG2 trading at over H$500. Is it really going to go...

As others have already said the first one adjusted higher than this one is currently at, and there's a lot of speculation that this one could do even more than the last one as all of the phase 2 movies have been bigger than their phase 1 versions.

Also the first Avengers had actual midnight screenings on thursday night whereas blockbusters today get "preview" screenings starting at 7 or 8pm. Guardians had 7pm shows for example and at the theater near me had something like 8 screenings that night. The first Hunger Games had midnight previews and did $19.7m, Catching Fire did $25.2m with thursday previews starting at 8pm, so it's possible it won't make a huge difference.

However everyone thought Mockingjay 1 would drop only slightly like 10-20m from Catching Fire and it ended up opening 36m lower which just reiterates that when the numbers get that big you never know where the next one will go. If Ultron opened at 180m that would still be absolutely massive, but it would adjust to H$486.

AVNG2 trading at over H$500. Is it really going to go higher or time to sell? DTshakes Jan 17, 07:44

AVNGR hit $540, delisted at $523 {nm} ndmaster Jan 17, 08:28

Nice! Thanks, ndmaster. {nm} DTshakes Jan 17, 09:31

Unless they make 250 million in box office opening. mike255 Jan 17, 11:13

Why do you predict a huge crash soon, mike255? (nm) DTshakes Jan 17, 13:07

Because they are converting BO to bitcoin. {nm} PVL Admin Jan 17, 14:04

Dtshakes avenger 2 price is way to high. No ways the movie adjust 900 mike255 Jan 17, 15:24

?!? Do you know how the price works? 500/2.7 is the potential OW, not the other way around. Right now it's priced at 188 OW {nm} Rocket123 (aka PVL Admin) Jan 17, 16:56

You are better off invest american sniper than avenger mike255 Jan 17, 11:15

Unless you're Spiderman, Ironman, Toy Story, and a host of others. :-) {nm} Flash Jan 17, 11:21

Anyone that has heard of dROI would know this is correct. SOOO much less risk in Sniper. {nm} ndmaster Jan 17, 14:24

My comments..... MattW Jan 17, 13:14

Avengers opened at 207 MIL. At present, there is no reason to expect Avengers 2 to open less. {nm} PVL Admin Jan 17, 13:58

Yes, but the point of the post is that it is already priced at an $187MM opening. Even with a $207MM opening, your upside is only 10% ndmaster Jan 17, 14:23

I took it as a directionality question, not a good/bad DRoi question. Certainly not a stock for small ports. {nm} Rocket123 (aka PVL Admin) Jan 17, 14:46

Yeah, the DROI is not very good, so probably not worth it for small port. {nm} JDolphin Jan 17, 14:47

It may not adjust this high, but I expect the hype as we get closer to opening to continue to push the stock up {nm} JDolphin Jan 17, 14:25

Avenger the next hobbit 2 stock flop from last year. {nm} mike255 Jan 17, 15:19

Hobbit 1 was not the largest opening weekend ever (and was less that half of Avengers OW) {nm} JDolphin Jan 17, 18:25





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