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[LGFX] MovieStock Notes: SICAR.

Posted by: Lionsgate Studio Fund (a.k.a LGFXFund) on Sep 17, 02:41

 

The following is not a recommendation to invest.

 

Review

A solid "A" movie concerned with the subterranean contradictions of anti-drug law enforcement & policy. Creative execution is near flawless. Script, cinematography, score, direction & performances merge seamlessly in a manner superior than TRAFC or ZDTHR & reminiscent of MMANN at his peak.

Story structure delivers credible character revelations. Lensing is masterful, with creative flourishes throughout. Brooding, visceral soundtrack imposes foreboding urgency to proceedings. DVILL further elevates material via relentless attention to detail & pacing. Cast are uniformly impressive.

Project should maintain an 80%+ "Fresh" RT rating & is worthy of Oscar consideration across the board.

 

Prediction

Limited run will produce spectacular PTAs.

Rewinding all the way back to Oct 2-4, 1998 (during HSX's infancy), ANTZ & WHTDR combined to record the highest & third highest all time Oct OWs. Today, half of the top twelve all time Oct OWs were released during the frame at the start of the month -- & 2015 won't be any different.

Wide expansion (timed to take advantage of MARTN counterprogramming opportunity in first weekend of Oct) should be aiming to achieve a minimum $5k PTA across 2.5k theaters ($12.5m OW, equivalent to the ninety-third highest Oct OW at the time of writing), or be considered a failure.

SICAR is going to play to discerning commercial audiences for the duration of fall & close above $40m.


Tag(s): LGFX





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