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I think competition's only part of the story - after all, there doesn't seem to a lot of direct competition for ELYSM's audience this w/e

Posted by: RogerMore on Aug 08, 17:26 in response to eallensbp's post That, Roger, by no means is cause for me to start...

None of the other weekend openers are directly competing with the target audience.  WOLV2 is in its 3rd week, PACRM is in its 6th.

And original sci-fi has its own challenges.  Obviously, it's original, which means will have less recognition with audiences, so the marketing people have to work harder to sell the movie.

And it's sci-fi, which turns some people off.  Good sci-fi is about challenging people's ideas and preconceptions, and a lot of people go to the movies to be entertained, not challenged.

Not that Eysium doesn't have positives - audiences like Matt Damon in gritty, silent action roles and having a big star takes some of the "how do we sell this?" pressure off.  The late addition of 500 screens is another solid point in its favour.

But there's a consistent history of original sci-fi throwing under HSX expectations that shouldn't be ignored. Beyond 2013 too.

LAT: ELYSM $32 million, according to those who have seen pre-release audience surveys. PLANE $28 million WEMIL $24 million PJAC2 $19 mill Antibody Aug 08, 15:04

Ouch alert for PLANE. I said $32M for that one. I still believe PJAC2 may do slightly more than either my predict of $18-$21M or LAT's. eallensbp Aug 08, 15:10

I'm drowning on ELYSM, $10M+ under if LAT is to be believed, so I'm hoping ELYSM proves the pre-release tracking wronger than Miss Cleo. {nm} eallensbp Aug 08, 15:13

If there's one lesson to take from the 2013 box office, it's to always bet on original sci fi. RogerMore Aug 08, 15:19

And the IM is the most important part of your message... So true. {nm} skamanfu Aug 08, 15:43

That, Roger, by no means is cause for me to start auto-Shorting movies that happen to be original SciFi. In this case, I think competition-- eallensbp Aug 08, 16:42

At any rate, we still got 'til Sun before we can make like NIKKI writing a postmortem on ELYSM. OTOH, gotta agree, not a good summer for, eallensbp Aug 08, 16:44

I think competition's only part of the story - after all, there doesn't seem to a lot of direct competition for ELYSM's audience this w/e RogerMore Aug 08, 17:26

Not arguing that, Roger. I'm treating ELYSM as an isolated case in this matter. Certain brands of SciFi are evergreen; Blomkamp's his own-- eallensbp Aug 08, 18:27

I think it's way too early in Blonkamp's career to say that. Look at Guillermo del Toro, who has a more established RogerMore Aug 08, 19:23

Yeah, I won't pretend that my statement about Blomkamp being a brand isn't bold or risky. But I feel this guy is the real deal. More inside. eallensbp Aug 08, 19:54

Elysium is #3 on the Fandango iPad app...which is pretty surprising for a movie that should have advanced sales appeal {nm} GMov Aug 08, 16:24

Not surprised Millers is ahead of it but very odd that Planes is as well {nm} GMov Aug 08, 16:26

Weeeeellllll . . . when Disney 1st committed to wide theatrical for PLANE, honestly, I was like YEAH! $70+ opener. Never could have thought eallensbp Aug 08, 16:49

PLANE is NOT by Pixar. {nm} Antibody Aug 08, 16:52

No, and neither is BOLT. I made the Pixar comparison since the material, as Disney's marketing keeps emphasizing is "from the WORLD of CARS" eallensbp Aug 08, 18:21





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