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Confused as heck about [PRED3]

Posted by: sonic_death_monkey (a.k.a tawdryhepburn) on Dec 20, 14:49

I've owned this stock since it was worth like 7 bucks, and I've turned a big profit on it, but my gut is telling me to dump it, but maybe I just don't know what the film is. Can anyone tell me if it will be PG-13 or R? Because that might the key difference. Is it being filmed in 3D by any chance? Imdb says the budget in 40 million, if this is the case, we're not seeing a reinvention of the franchise in the style of Avatar, despite the epic sounding plot synopsis.

The film is currently trading at over 80 bucks. Looking at writer/producer Robert Rodriguez's previous films, only the PG rated family franchise "SPY KIDS" has grossed more (112, 85, 111, respectively). A few years back he did Sin City, which was a hard-R, but that only grossed 75 million, and that film had a bunch of A-listers and some of the strongest marketing of the decade. Since Sin City none of his films has broken 40 million.

But Rodriguez isn't even directing Predators. Nimrod Anatal is. His last film, Armored did 14 million dollars. Before that Vacancy only did 19 million.

And whereas Sin City had big stars, Predators has, Topher Grace, Adrian Brody, Danny Trejo, and Laurence Fishburne, none of whom strike me as real leading men. Sure, Grace was in Spider-Man 3 and Fishburne was in the Matrix flicks, but did anyone go see either of those films because of these actors? Meanwhile, despite his Oscar win, Brody has never once starred in an honest to goodness mainstream hit. His last effort, The Brother's Bloom, never even crossed the 4 million dollar mark. Danny Trejo is a star only in the minds of fanboys.

Looking back, the original Predator grossed only 59 million dollars. The sequel did 30. The PG-13 AVP film DID manage to gross 80 million, but that had a summer release date all to itself, and the Xenomophs, which had a much larger franchise. More recently, the R-rated AVP:R only did 41 million with a Christmas day release. And to be perfectly honest, I think that film salted the fields for any future entires.

Too, though the film has a nice July release date where it is only up against Despicable Me, it is coming out only one week before Christopher Nolan's Leo DiCaprio starring Inception. The genre's are similar enough that this could pretty much kill Predators after 7 days of release. And if it IS PG-13 instead of R, then there could be some audience crossover with The Sourcerer's Apprentice too, which also comes out 7 days after Predators. And the week after that brings Angelina Jolie's Salt. Also, two weeks before Predators is Johan Hex, another Hard-R violent actioner with the advantage of having actual manly men.

Maybe it's because I'm 21 and I wasn't born when the original Predator came out...but I don't get the hubub. It would seem to me that, best case scenario it matches AVP, in which case the final gross is 80 miiion. If the film is 7 months out and it's already trading at 80 million that means that people are expecting what, a 120-150 million dollar bow? That would make it one of the top 20 R-rated grossers of all time. And that list only has 3 action films from the last decade in it (300, Gladiator, The Matrix Reloaded). Two of these were sword and Sandal films and one was one of the most anticipated sequels since Phantom Menace. Also note that the list only has 1 horror-esque film; Hannibal. And that movie was a highly anticipated sequel with a lot of press because of the book. And it also wasn't really horror.

And this here is just a gut check but I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the film follow in the path of another recent hard-R franchise reboot from a slick producer who was trying to wash away the scent of a few horrific sequels -- Friday the 13th. That film opened to 40 million, but only made 65 film million total. And In my age range Jason is way more high profile than the Predator.

So what am I missing? why is Predators up 3.50 today? And why is it this big, this far out, to begin with?