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anyone remember the film Ted? good, because Sausage Party is following down the same path for potential.

Posted by: lobogotti on Aug 06, 08:05

IMO, there's just no way this film opens under $30M and I'm willing to lay change that the film opens over $40M easy.

1. Let's start with the fact that the buzz coming out of SXSW 5 months ago was ridiculous.
http://www.fandango.com/movie-news/sxsw-buzz-sausage-party-is-the-craziest-animated-movie-ever-made-750609
http://variety.com/2016/more/news/sausage-party-driving-more-early-buzz-than-other-seth-rogen-films-1201737485/
http://www.complex.com/pop-culture/2016/03/sausage-party-biggest-seth-rogen-movie-ever

You can't buy that kind of buzz... unless your Disney apparently ;)

2. Between FB & YT the redband trailer has been viewed 24M+ times. The upvotes on YT are 85k+ vs 5k-... that's an impressive tell for the appeal of this film.

3. The reviews starting to trickle out a week ago are extremely positive and signal that this film is hilarious.
https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/sausage_party/

4. What was the last R Rated Film targeted for teenagers, young adults, and 35+ year old males? Sure, say Mike and Dave, and while successful I can argue that it's not necessarily enough to satisfy the appetite of the immature/raunchy film lovers.

5. Deadpool anyone? Many arguments on what moviegoers want on here, but for as far back as I can remember people like originality done well. Argue that you think this film looks horrible, that's fine, but you're not the target market.

There hasn't been a film like this since Southpark, but I actually like Ted as a better comparison. The landscape has changed a lot since SPark and that film spoke to it's followers only. I think the target market is going to want to get in on this early.

Think about films like Ted, Deadpool, Borat, Jackass. Think about how films like that succeed. They mainly have two things going for them... 1. They go against the grain 2. They back up their talk by actually being funny and well made.

6. R Rated comedies do well in August. Kids going back to school next week will find this film all the rage to talk about in the halls. They're going to come out in droves. Lame duck offerings for August will also help this films legs.

7. Go back to the User Ratings from RT and see it's approaching 30M. For an original comedy, that's insanely high. Especially one that targets the teens. It's 10M over Bad Moms and that film has been out over a week with a near $25M opening.

8. This will be WOM week with special showings and premieres. The buzz will spread throughout Twitter/FB like a firestorm.

I look for SSquad to have a severe drop off next week. While I wouldn't bet that this film can beat it, I did have it doing so in it's second weekend in the RogerMore contest (while expecting $130M - 150M for SS). An having filled that out sixweeks ago, from all the data I'm seeing I believe this film is building the perfect storm to really surprise. Not just in OW, but final domestic gross.

Wish I had time to type more, but I meant to get to this last week and I'm out the door now. Would love to hear your thoughts.

Have a great weekend.

anyone remember the film Ted? good, because Sausage Party is following down the same path for potential. lobogotti Aug 06, 08:05

Woohoo LOBO {nm} Dorfman Aug 06, 08:06

It will be interesting to see if you're right. {nm} jdaniel Aug 06, 08:21

Huge potential to be a sleeper. I've been looking forward to it ever since it had been announced--they never title-changed, but oh well. chosenone2oo5 Aug 06, 08:54

It is filthier than anything they've done before and I'm shocked some of the stuff in it got past the MPAA for an R-rating. {nm} diamondman56 Aug 06, 08:55

Often, as long as the actions are not occurring to human beings, or are portrayed solely in animation--your parameters get far wider. chosenone2oo5 Aug 06, 09:09

remember Fritz the Cat :-) ? jmt-nl Aug 06, 11:13

while I don't agree with chosenone alot, Fritz was 44 yrs ago - different era. {nm} JDolphin Aug 06, 11:20

my point exactly. he brought up Psycho ! even 12 years before FRITZ {nm} jmt-nl Aug 06, 11:23

My poiint is the rules for an R are alot less than 40 yrs ago {nm} JDolphin Aug 06, 11:43