HOLLYWOOD STOCK EXCHANGE
THE ENTERTAINMENT MARKET
THE ENTERTAINMENT MARKET
The week between Christmas Day and New Year's (and probably Jan 2) are like Saturdays every day. (Normally)
As an example, the original Avatar made $77 million its first weekend and then a week later, it only made a few million less and then the weekend after that, it made a few million less than that, which is how it racked up $350 million in three weeks (or 4.5X that opening weekend). That won't happen this time around a.) because there are earlier Thursday screenings rolled into the opening weekend and that's quite a bit of money ($17m) that is removed before figuring out its 2nd weekend drop. There are also a lot of strong releases beginning Weds/Friday for a fairly wide demographic, all of which were key to the success of the first Avatar. The Way of the Water is also going to open much bigger and presumably, not everyone will go see it a second time right away but maybe many will see it a second or even third time in that week after Christmas, so that should help... but we'll have to see if it can do a 3.5-4X opening weekend by delist, which would be on par with the pre-Xmas blockbuster releases from the last few years (Star Wars movies, etc.). Can't remember what the mult for SPID8 was by delist but there was also the Omicron factor in play there.
China just 60+ this weekend total run could be as low as 150 but maybe 200 or 300 {nm} Dec 17, 20:26
3 multiplier gets it to around 400 after 4 weeks.......... {nm} Dec 17, 20:28
Chinese releases are typically hugely frontloaded (Covid situation if it improves could help change that) {nm} Dec 17, 20:34
US + China combined OW below 200 is not what I was expecting. {nm} Dec 17, 21:20
I think traders have forgotten the Xmas mega multiplier effect here. {nm} Dec 17, 21:27
how big is New Year's usually for moviegoing? {nm} Dec 18, 00:28
The week between Christmas Day and New Year's (and probably Jan 2) are like Saturdays every day. (Normally) Dec 18, 04:22
Just checked SPID8 Dec 18, 04:34
STAR8 and STAR9 are in line with your SPID8 mult, but Rogue One was 3.08, which would put 400-450 as a ceiling. {nm} Dec 18, 05:32