TVStocks, MusicStocks and Life

I've been working on an excel spread sheet for the NCAA Tournament.  It is to be used to organize information in one place.  As you may all know, I'll be heading to Vegas in 9 short days to bet on the games.  I'm liking my chances more and more these days and I'm doing everything I can to ensure that every bet I make will be a winner.

The Spread sheet uses, winning percentages or each of the top 8 seeds that correspond to the best bet based on seeding alone.  The other half of the sheet uses winning percentages by team for 2012-2013 season, all games since 2006, NCAA Tournament games since 2006.  There is also a compiled winning percentage that uses, seedin trend percentage, the current season winning percentage and NCAA Tournament winning percentages since 2006.

It's pretty much a waste of time at this point as the seeding changes from day to day as teams win and lose, but provides a little hope.  One projected match up has Creighton 6 seed, against Villanova an 11 seed.  Running the win percentages says that UNDER is the best bet in this game where Creighton 65% and Villanova 79% score UNDER the Vegas totals line. 

But based on seeds, the Money Line on a 6 seed wins 67% of the time versus an 11 seed in the 2nd round of the tournament.  However, Creighton has only won 25% of their NCAA Tournament games straight up while Villanova has won 67%.  There is no way I am willing to bet real cash money on an 11th seed to beat a 6th seed in the 2nd round.  So, I would bet the UNDER for 6 seed that has winning percentage of 55%.

Selection Sunday is this weedend.  I will have to spend a couple hours updating the spread sheet with the correct seeding and than input all the different winning percentages.  Once that is done, I'll head to vegasinsider for the Vegas Lines and line numbers.  Monday and Tuesday I will be double and triple checking the information and set up my parlay wagers. 

All this stuff will make it easier for me to make my bets.  The casino I will be staying at is the only casino that will be using parlay cards throughout the NCAA Tournament.  There is one casino that has a betting terminal that I can use to make free odds wagers. Finally, I can always stand in line and read off 40-50 parlays.  I''l only have about 15 hours to make all my bets and fo many of those hours, the sportsbook will be closed.

I've also written a formula that projects my odds of winning based on all the inning percentages.  It came out at 75%.  A simplified version based soley on a war of attrition goes like this.  If I win 75% of the games on day one and 50% of the games on day 2, I would win 18 parlays/  If I win 1/2 my games on day one, and 1/2 my games on day 2, I would win 12 parlays.  And if I win 15% of my games on day one and 15% of my games on day 2, I would win one parlay.

I think I am as prepared for this trip as I was my 1st trip after studying card counting for 18 months.  On that trip I won 12 days in a row and took home $25,000.00 playing blackjack for about 2 hours per day.  The preparation I have been doing since June will ensure me that I will not be placing a bet on any team or wager that has a winning percentage less than 55%.

Should I win in the 2nd round, I have 3rd round best best by seed if I feel like risking a little more money.  Here, no bet will be on a seed that has a winning percentage of less than 60%.  Then there are futures to consider.  Will the Cubs win more than 72 games this year?  Are the Yankees good enough to win the AL Central?  Will the Blackhawks take the Cup?

I was also wondering?  Is Jim Carey still a box office draw?