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How about take the two biggies last year AVNGR and HOBIT, and dog like ALVH, and show how our predictive powers failed.

Posted by: elchan (a.k.a elchan2012) on Mar 18, 09:03 in response to phdpens' post HSX as a Predictive Market - Question/Help!

Like the normal stock market, there are a few people here that do the hard math using previous BO results, and do statistical predictions.  Most of us follow the Friday and Saturday numbers and buy or short accordingly.  It's like following quarterly reports for real stocks.

The derivatives are a different story.  It's not really so much predicting how much a movie will make rather than, how closely Antibody's prediction is going to deviate from the actual box office.  Sometime his standard deviation is large and we make easy money, sometimes it's a coin flip and you just have to cover your butts with the movie stock after the fact.

HSX as a Predictive Market - Question/Help! phdpens Mar 17, 17:53

check the Announcements board for the MoviesStock Adjust posts {nm} charlie Mar 17, 19:01

How about take the two biggies last year AVNGR and HOBIT, and dog like ALVH, and show how our predictive powers failed. elchan Mar 18, 09:03

thanks! (nm) phdpens Mar 18, 14:06

Btw, you 4 have days, plenty of time if you forgo sleep, and showers. (Been there, done that.) elchan Mar 18, 09:23





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Janet Planet (JNTPL) 75000 2.19 (+0.03)          Inside Out 2 (INOU2) 1 329.12 (-1.15)          Firebrand (FRBRN) 150000 1.85 (-0.10)          Maika Monroe (MMONR) 1 5.56 (+0.05)          Fly Me to the Moon (PARTM) 149999 57.45 (-0.99)          King of the Jungle (KOTJN) 150000 0.08 (+0.01)          Onslaught (ONSLT) 12000 17.54 (+1.04)          The Exorcism (TGTWP) 50000 1.42 (0.00)          Borderlands (BRDLN) 150000 69.88 (-1.70)          Borderlands (BRDLN) 150000 69.88 (-1.70)          Untitled Event Film Directed By (SKIES) 10000 84.75 (+2.31)          Tye Sheridan (TSHER) 25000 25.56 (-0.25)          A Quiet Place: Day One (AQPL3) 450 114.82 (+0.45)          Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (MMAX5) 50000 63.73 (-0.12)          Untitled Event Film Directed By (SKIES) 150000 84.75 (+2.31)          Chris Weitz (CWEIT) 25000 78.99 (-1.01)          Janet Planet (JNTPL) 150000 2.19 (+0.03)          IF $100M Blockbuster Warrant (IMGNF.BW) 25000 5.68 (+0.68)          Blade (BLAD1) 5 104.11 (+0.07)          Inside Out 2 (INOU2) 75000 329.12 (-1.15)          Chris Weitz (CWEIT) 25000 78.99 (-1.01)          Onslaught (ONSLT) 55000 17.54 (+1.04)          The Old Oak (OLOAK) 150000 0.19 (0.00)          Inside Out 2 (INOU2) 10000 329.12 (-1.15)          Untitled Event Film Directed By (SKIES) 150000 84.75 (+2.31)          Kill (KILL) 5 6.99 (-0.54)          Untitled Event Film Directed By (SKIES) 150000 84.75 (+2.31)          The Wager (WAGER) 150000 30.73 (0.00)          Inside Out 2 (INOU2) 150000 329.12 (-1.15)          Inside Out 2 (INOU2) 150000 329.12 (-1.15)          Untitled Event Film Directed By (SKIES) 150000 84.75 (+2.31)          Horizon: An American Saga Chapte (HORZN) 1 57.60 (+0.09)          Horizon: An American Saga Chapte (HORZ2) 1 50.95 (-0.07)          The Bikeriders H$15 Call (BKRDR.CA) 25000 1.61 (-0.06)          The Fabulous Four (TFAB4) 150000 3.48 (-0.53)          Funny Birds (FUNYB) 150000 0.09 (+0.02)          The Bikeriders H$15 Call (BKRDR.CA) 25000 1.61 (-0.06)          The Bikeriders - Opening Weekend (BKRDR.OW) 25000 13.59 (+0.01)          Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson (VINEL) 150000 32.69 (+0.23)          Justice Smith (JUSMI) 74 97.13 (0.00)          The Bikeriders - Opening Weekend (BKRDR.OW) 100000 13.59 (+0.01)          Justice Smith (JUSMI) 74 97.13 (0.00)          Justice Smith (JUSMI) 74 97.13 (0.00)          Balestra (BALES) 150000 0.09 (+0.02)          We All Die Young (WADY) 150000 0.15 (+0.02)          Julia Louis-Dreyfus (JLOUI) 500 65.66 (0.00)          The Fabulous Four (TFAB4) 150000 3.48 (-0.53)          Maika Monroe (MMONR) 1 5.56 (+0.05)          Kill (KILL) 150000 6.99 (-0.54)          Above The Below (ABELW) 30000 12.24 (+0.64)