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My thoughts on the presidential options...

Posted by: Buckee on Aug 20, 11:13

265 is an interesting price.

If memory serves. there are around 540 total electoral votes.

So historically speaking, one will cash out around 300 +/-.

The other around 240 +/-.

There's not a ton of money to be made either way. Both could *almost* be considered ARB at IPO.

Am I wrong? What am I missing?

My thoughts on the presidential options... Buckee Aug 20, 11:13

slight ARB bbb101 Aug 20, 11:25

Shorting both wouldn't be ARB. {nm} Antibody Aug 20, 11:28

Correct. One will make money, not a ton compared to investment. The other comes somewhat close to breaking even.... if both are bought long. {nm} Buckee Aug 20, 11:46

since 1992: EC has been roughly 330-208, so about 2.4M profit at that gap, ok i guess. islndr Aug 20, 11:36

True. Only if one wins by a landslide can real money be made... if you played them correctly. {nm} Buckee Aug 20, 11:49

A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win so one of them by default would have to be worth $100,000 more than IPO price TheWeekendWarrior Aug 20, 11:51

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