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Whisper Numbers: Brave aims for another Pixar hit

The official first weekend of summer comes with three new wide releases lead by Disney’s animated Brave [BRAVE].  Featuring the first female lead character in Pixar’s 13 film history, the PG-rated Brave is about a redheaded princess who prefers archery over corsets, but not much else is clear about the story set in ancient Scotland.  However, the Pixar brand itself is strong enough to attract audiences of all demographics. Even the subpar sequel Cars 2 debuted with $66 million last year.  Their last non-sequel Up banked a $68 million opening in 2009. one would have to go back to 2007’s Ratatouille for an underperformer at $47 million. Shooting into 4165 theaters, Brave may conquer $63 million.

The historical fantasy Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter [ALVH] surmises that our 16th President secretly slayed bloodsuckers during the Civil War. Although the R-rated film is based on a best-selling novel, recent genre mash-ups like Cowboys and Aliens and Jonah Hex have failed to find a broad audience. With no big stars in its cast, Fox’s main marketing point has been the 3D action from the director of Wanted, Timur Bekmambetov [TBEKM]. With a lack of options for young male moviegoers, Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter could attract enough wallets to score $21 million from 3106 theaters.

Even with direct competition from Brave, Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted [MADG3] could still finish second if Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter falters. Madagascar 3 looks to collect another $19 million.

In its third week of release Prometheus [PROME] should finish fourth with another $10 million. Older female moviegoers should keep the musical Rock of Ages [ROAGE] from falling more than 50% to about $8 million. Unfortunately, nothing will stop the R-rated comedy That’s My Boy [TMBOY] from dropping more than 50% to $6 million.

Steve Carell [SCARE] and Keira Knightley [KKNIG] play an unlikely couple in the R-rated romantic comedy Seeking a Friend for the End of the World [SAFEW]. In order to attract its target audience of sophisticated adults, the unconventional film needs favorable reviews. Unfortunately, the buzz have mostly been negative. Arriving in 1618 theaters, Seeking a Friend for the End of the World may find just $6.5 million.

That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): BRAVE, ALVH, TBEKM, MADG3, PROME, ROAGE, TMBOY, SCARE, KKNIG, SAFEW

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, June 21, 2012 @ 04:03 PM 15217 views

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Box Score: #AQuietPlace Part II retook the top spot as #IntheHeights and #PeterRabbit2 underperformed at the weeken…       #IntheHeights earned $5.0 million on Friday (which includes Thursday)       #PeterRabbit2: The Runaway earned $4.0 million on Friday       Toby Jones joins Indiana Jones 5       Kevin Bacon to play villain in Toxic Avenger        Chloe Fineman to play wedding planner in Father of the Bride       Hugh Jackman, Dwayne Johnson, Tina Fey and John Krasinski to appear in #FreeGuy       Michael Pena joins Secret Headquarters       MGM has acquired Flag Day directed by Sean Penn for theatrical release this year https://t.co/HDjFCGoUEr       Trailer for Mama Weed starring Isabelle Huppert https://t.co/rOcwaoH8OA      
Mrs. Harris Goes To Paris (MHGTP) 1000 4.66 (-0.01)         Mama Weed (MAMAW) 1000 1.36 (-0.08)         Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway (PRAB2) 1000 38.66 (-0.12)         Flashback (TEOFF) 1000 0.02 (0.00)         Emma Roberts (EROBE) 25000 13.33 (-0.09)         Nosferatu (NOSFR) 150000 7.05 (-0.22)         Spirit Untamed (SPRDF) 1000 18.07 (0.00)         Nosferatu (NOSFR) 150000 7.05 (-0.22)         Emma Roberts (EROBE) 20000 13.33 (-0.09)         Gully (GULLY) 1000 0.02 (0.00)         The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me (CNJU3) 1000 61.06 (-0.35)         Cyrano (CYRNO) 150000 14.98 (+0.18)         Cyrano (CYRNO) 150000 14.98 (+0.18)         Joe Bell (GJBEL) 150000 6.55 (+0.17)         Joe Bell (GJBEL) 150000 6.55 (+0.17)         Lakewood (LAKWD) 150000 2.42 (+0.18)         Lakewood (LAKWD) 150000 2.42 (+0.18)         The Night House (TNTHS) 150000 11.26 (+0.22)         The Night House (TNTHS) 150000 11.26 (+0.22)         The Hitman's Wife's Bodyguard H$ (HTMB2.PU) 25000 1.85 (-0.04)         The Hitman's Wife's Bodyguard H$ (HTMB2.PU) 25000 1.85 (-0.04)         The Hitman's Wife's Bodyguard H$ (HTMB2.CA) 25000 2.60 (-0.03)         The Hitman's Wife's Bodyguard H$ (HTMB2.CA) 25000 2.60 (-0.03)         The Hitman's Wife's Bodyguard - (HTMB2.OW) 100000 20.13 (-0.20)         The Hitman's Wife's Bodyguard - (HTMB2.OW) 100000 20.13 (-0.20)         Mama Weed (MAMAW) 150000 1.36 (-0.08)         Mama Weed (MAMAW) 150000 1.36 (-0.08)         Not Bloody Likely (NBLKL) 150000 3.86 (-0.26)         Not Bloody Likely (NBLKL) 150000 3.86 (-0.26)         She Came to Me (SCTME) 150000 5.88 (+0.64)         She Came to Me (SCTME) 150000 5.88 (+0.64)         Space Jam: A New Legacy (SJAM2) 250 75.55 (-0.45)         Space Jam: A New Legacy (SJAM2) 50 75.55 (-0.45)         The Shrinking of Treehorn (TSOTH) 150000 38.34 (-0.07)         The Jesus Music (JSMUS) 150000 7.64 (+0.06)         Tick, Tick... Boom! (TICKB) 150000 0.96 (-0.04)         The Jesus Music (JSMUS) 150000 7.64 (+0.06)         Mama Weed (MAMAW) 150000 1.36 (-0.08)         Isabelle Huppert (IHUPP) 25000 2.60 (-0.03)         Swan Song (SWSNG) 150000 1.40 (-0.02)         The Unbreakable Boy (UNBOY) 75000 17.45 (-0.02)         Salma Hayek (SHAYE) 25000 36.75 (-0.20)         Salma Hayek (SHAYE) 25000 36.75 (-0.20)         She Came to Me (SCTME) 75000 5.88 (+0.64)         Orphan: First Kill aka Esther (ORPH2) 150000 19.18 (-0.04)         Confess, Fletch (FLET3) 150000 18.72 (-0.40)         The Silent Twins (STWIN) 149999 4.29 (+0.54)         Predator 5 (PRED5) 150000 23.07 (-0.11)         Wish Dragon (WDRGN) 100000 0.85 (-0.01)         Son of Kong (KONG2) 150000 76.63 (-2.75)