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Whisper Numbers: Brave aims for another Pixar hit

The official first weekend of summer comes with three new wide releases lead by Disney’s animated Brave [BRAVE].  Featuring the first female lead character in Pixar’s 13 film history, the PG-rated Brave is about a redheaded princess who prefers archery over corsets, but not much else is clear about the story set in ancient Scotland.  However, the Pixar brand itself is strong enough to attract audiences of all demographics. Even the subpar sequel Cars 2 debuted with $66 million last year.  Their last non-sequel Up banked a $68 million opening in 2009. one would have to go back to 2007’s Ratatouille for an underperformer at $47 million. Shooting into 4165 theaters, Brave may conquer $63 million.

The historical fantasy Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter [ALVH] surmises that our 16th President secretly slayed bloodsuckers during the Civil War. Although the R-rated film is based on a best-selling novel, recent genre mash-ups like Cowboys and Aliens and Jonah Hex have failed to find a broad audience. With no big stars in its cast, Fox’s main marketing point has been the 3D action from the director of Wanted, Timur Bekmambetov [TBEKM]. With a lack of options for young male moviegoers, Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter could attract enough wallets to score $21 million from 3106 theaters.

Even with direct competition from Brave, Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted [MADG3] could still finish second if Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter falters. Madagascar 3 looks to collect another $19 million.

In its third week of release Prometheus [PROME] should finish fourth with another $10 million. Older female moviegoers should keep the musical Rock of Ages [ROAGE] from falling more than 50% to about $8 million. Unfortunately, nothing will stop the R-rated comedy That’s My Boy [TMBOY] from dropping more than 50% to $6 million.

Steve Carell [SCARE] and Keira Knightley [KKNIG] play an unlikely couple in the R-rated romantic comedy Seeking a Friend for the End of the World [SAFEW]. In order to attract its target audience of sophisticated adults, the unconventional film needs favorable reviews. Unfortunately, the buzz have mostly been negative. Arriving in 1618 theaters, Seeking a Friend for the End of the World may find just $6.5 million.

That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): BRAVE, ALVH, TBEKM, MADG3, PROME, ROAGE, TMBOY, SCARE, KKNIG, SAFEW

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, June 21, 2012 @ 04:03 PM 15900 views

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Not Alone (NTALN) 150 105.48 (+0.38)          Runner (RUNNR) 63334 17.09 (+0.12)          John Rambo (RAMB6) 1600 43.19 (+0.22)          Park Chan-wook (CWPAR) 25000 3.68 (+0.05)          The Odyssey (ODYSE) 20000 332.71 (+2.36)          Get Lite (GETLT) 25666 20.01 (+0.91)          Get Lite (GETLT) 109999 20.01 (+0.91)          Artificial (AIFIC) 150000 14.86 (-0.42)          Peter Rabbit 3: Lost in New York (PRAB3) 6500 23.20 (+0.97)          Behemoth! (BEHEM) 12000 19.57 (+1.07)          Creed IV (CREE4) 150000 27.96 (+0.10)          James Bond 26 (JB26) 5000 168.75 (+1.87)          The Housekeeper (HSKPR) 150000 2.94 (+0.02)          Heat 2 (HEAT2) 45000 67.57 (+2.10)          Tomorrow Is a Drag (TIADR) 150000 14.23 (+0.35)          Spider-Man: Brand New Day (SPID9) 20000 480.00 (+2.60)          Peter Rabbit 3: Lost in New York (PRAB3) 150000 23.20 (+0.97)          Don't Look Back in Anger ak (OASIS) 112000 15.26 (-0.60)          The Brink of War (REYKJ) 150000 6.14 (+0.03)          The Bourne Dilemma (BORN6) 10000 86.45 (+0.07)          Runner (RUNNR) 18000 17.09 (+0.12)          Untitled Blair Witch Movie (TBWP4) 20000 34.52 (-0.11)          The Teller (TELER) 34000 7.80 (-0.31)          The Teller (TELER) 34000 7.80 (-0.31)          Hexed (HEXED) 12500 125.20 (+0.25)          Dune: Part Three (DUNE3) 20000 248.99 (+0.96)          Sight & Sound Presents: Josh (SSPJL) 50000 4.55 (-0.46)          Drag (DRAG) 150000 6.38 (-0.59)          Not Alone (NTALN) 22000 105.48 (+0.38)          Moana (MOAN1) 46227 139.37 (-0.26)          Peter Rabbit 3: Lost in New York (PRAB3) 15000 23.20 (+0.97)          Drag (DRAG) 150000 6.38 (-0.59)          The Jetsons (JETSN) 150000 64.46 (+0.09)          Sense and Sensibility (SNSNS) 12000 19.91 (+0.07)          The End of Oak Street (FLWVS) 46000 82.43 (+0.57)          Bad Fairies (BFAIR) 25000 54.28 (-0.22)          Gatto (GATTO) 20000 137.34 (+0.78)          Stiletto (STLTO) 11000 3.40 (-0.06)          Lizard Music (LZMUS) 150000 15.37 (+0.04)          Doctor Strange 3 (DRST3) 30000 74.01 (+0.30)          Drag (DRAG) 5000 6.38 (-0.59)          Clarissa (CLRIS) 150000 3.44 (+0.19)          Idiots (SHTHD) 12000 6.93 (+0.07)          Clarissa (CLRIS) 150000 3.44 (+0.19)          The Life And Deaths Of Wilson Sh (LDOWS) 150000 3.83 (-0.25)          Behemoth! (BEHEM) 105000 19.57 (+1.07)          The Life And Deaths Of Wilson Sh (LDOWS) 150000 3.83 (-0.25)          Danny Glover (DGLOV) 5000 56.97 (+0.16)          K-Pop: The Debut aka K-Pop Super (KPOPM) 10000 36.71 (-1.42)          Ink (INK) 150000 9.52 (-0.91)