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Whisper Numbers: Brave aims for another Pixar hit

The official first weekend of summer comes with three new wide releases lead by Disney’s animated Brave [BRAVE].  Featuring the first female lead character in Pixar’s 13 film history, the PG-rated Brave is about a redheaded princess who prefers archery over corsets, but not much else is clear about the story set in ancient Scotland.  However, the Pixar brand itself is strong enough to attract audiences of all demographics. Even the subpar sequel Cars 2 debuted with $66 million last year.  Their last non-sequel Up banked a $68 million opening in 2009. one would have to go back to 2007’s Ratatouille for an underperformer at $47 million. Shooting into 4165 theaters, Brave may conquer $63 million.

The historical fantasy Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter [ALVH] surmises that our 16th President secretly slayed bloodsuckers during the Civil War. Although the R-rated film is based on a best-selling novel, recent genre mash-ups like Cowboys and Aliens and Jonah Hex have failed to find a broad audience. With no big stars in its cast, Fox’s main marketing point has been the 3D action from the director of Wanted, Timur Bekmambetov [TBEKM]. With a lack of options for young male moviegoers, Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter could attract enough wallets to score $21 million from 3106 theaters.

Even with direct competition from Brave, Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted [MADG3] could still finish second if Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter falters. Madagascar 3 looks to collect another $19 million.

In its third week of release Prometheus [PROME] should finish fourth with another $10 million. Older female moviegoers should keep the musical Rock of Ages [ROAGE] from falling more than 50% to about $8 million. Unfortunately, nothing will stop the R-rated comedy That’s My Boy [TMBOY] from dropping more than 50% to $6 million.

Steve Carell [SCARE] and Keira Knightley [KKNIG] play an unlikely couple in the R-rated romantic comedy Seeking a Friend for the End of the World [SAFEW]. In order to attract its target audience of sophisticated adults, the unconventional film needs favorable reviews. Unfortunately, the buzz have mostly been negative. Arriving in 1618 theaters, Seeking a Friend for the End of the World may find just $6.5 million.

That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): BRAVE, ALVH, TBEKM, MADG3, PROME, ROAGE, TMBOY, SCARE, KKNIG, SAFEW

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, June 21, 2012 @ 04:03 PM 15867 views

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Will Poulter (WPOUL) 25000 58.51 (-1.20)          Jeremy Allen White (JEAWH) 25000 44.11 (-0.95)          Sigourney Weaver (SWEAV) 25000 129.75 (-3.54)          Minions & Monsters - Opening (MNIO3.OW) 100000 75.00 (0.00)          Pedro Pascal (PPASC) 25000 127.07 (+0.26)          Noah Centineo (NCENT) 25000 52.47 (-0.52)          Young Washington (YWASH) 30000 30.25 (+0.89)          The Social Reckoning (SOCI2) 20000 67.19 (+0.18)          I Want Your Sex (IWYSX) 89000 5.91 (+0.03)          Naomi Ackie (NACKI) 25000 16.05 (+1.99)          Naomi Ackie (NACKI) 25000 16.05 (+1.99)          Spider-Man: Brand New Day (SPID9) 81064 418.06 (+2.21)          Club Kid (CLUBK) 100000 13.26 (-0.21)          Melissa Leo (MLEO) 25000 29.43 (+0.98)          Lucky Strike (LCKYS) 22 5.94 (0.00)          Killing Castro (KILLC) 17 4.63 (+0.03)          Pendulum (PNDLM) 21 6.69 (+0.11)          Control (COTRL) 14 6.01 (+0.45)          Keke Palmer (KPALM) 25000 62.18 (-1.29)          Black Panther 3 (BPNT3) 1 230.52 (-0.66)          Supergirl (SUPGR) 100000 138.73 (-4.07)          Killing Castro (KILLC) 150000 4.63 (+0.03)          Pendulum (PNDLM) 150000 6.69 (+0.11)          Metal Gear Solid (MTLGR) 149999 13.81 (+0.38)          Control (COTRL) 150000 6.01 (+0.45)          Lucky Strike (LCKYS) 150000 5.94 (0.00)          Golshifteh Farahani (GFARA) 25000 55.04 (-1.16)          Eiza Gonzalez (EGONZ) 25000 12.24 (+0.49)          Don Cheadle (DCHEA) 25000 122.52 (+1.86)          Black Panther 3 (BPNT3) 150000 230.52 (-0.66)          Spider-Man: Brand New Day (SPID9) 5 418.06 (+2.21)          Minions & Monsters H$75 Call (MNIO3.CA) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Minions & Monsters - Opening (MNIO3.OW) 100000 75.00 (0.00)          Young Washington H$10 Call (YWASH.CA) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Young Washington - Opening Weeke (YWASH.OW) 100000 10.00 (0.00)          Toy Story 5 (TOYS5) 50000 408.29 (+0.52)          Minions & Monsters H$75 Call (MNIO3.CA) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Spider-Man: Brand New Day (SPID9) 50000 418.06 (+2.21)          Minions & Monsters - Opening (MNIO3.OW) 100000 75.00 (0.00)          The Death of Robin Hood (TDORH) 150000 16.89 (-1.77)          Lice (LICE) 150000 4.00 (0.00)          Tangled (TANGL) 150000 109.79 (-0.61)          Tangled (TANGL) 150000 109.79 (-0.61)          Stop! That! Train! (STTRN) 10000 5.20 (-0.17)          Stop! That! Train! (STTRN) 150000 5.20 (-0.17)          Shrek 5 (SHRK5) 50000 243.48 (+0.29)          The Revenge of La Llorona (LORN2) 150000 23.73 (+1.35)          Lice (LICE) 150000 4.00 (0.00)          Martin Freeman (MAFRE) 25000 53.87 (-1.17)          Martin Freeman (MAFRE) 25000 53.87 (-1.17)