SPIN FACTOR®

The HSX Blog



Whisper Numbers: Brave aims for another Pixar hit

The official first weekend of summer comes with three new wide releases lead by Disney’s animated Brave [BRAVE].  Featuring the first female lead character in Pixar’s 13 film history, the PG-rated Brave is about a redheaded princess who prefers archery over corsets, but not much else is clear about the story set in ancient Scotland.  However, the Pixar brand itself is strong enough to attract audiences of all demographics. Even the subpar sequel Cars 2 debuted with $66 million last year.  Their last non-sequel Up banked a $68 million opening in 2009. one would have to go back to 2007’s Ratatouille for an underperformer at $47 million. Shooting into 4165 theaters, Brave may conquer $63 million.

The historical fantasy Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter [ALVH] surmises that our 16th President secretly slayed bloodsuckers during the Civil War. Although the R-rated film is based on a best-selling novel, recent genre mash-ups like Cowboys and Aliens and Jonah Hex have failed to find a broad audience. With no big stars in its cast, Fox’s main marketing point has been the 3D action from the director of Wanted, Timur Bekmambetov [TBEKM]. With a lack of options for young male moviegoers, Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter could attract enough wallets to score $21 million from 3106 theaters.

Even with direct competition from Brave, Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted [MADG3] could still finish second if Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter falters. Madagascar 3 looks to collect another $19 million.

In its third week of release Prometheus [PROME] should finish fourth with another $10 million. Older female moviegoers should keep the musical Rock of Ages [ROAGE] from falling more than 50% to about $8 million. Unfortunately, nothing will stop the R-rated comedy That’s My Boy [TMBOY] from dropping more than 50% to $6 million.

Steve Carell [SCARE] and Keira Knightley [KKNIG] play an unlikely couple in the R-rated romantic comedy Seeking a Friend for the End of the World [SAFEW]. In order to attract its target audience of sophisticated adults, the unconventional film needs favorable reviews. Unfortunately, the buzz have mostly been negative. Arriving in 1618 theaters, Seeking a Friend for the End of the World may find just $6.5 million.

That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): BRAVE, ALVH, TBEKM, MADG3, PROME, ROAGE, TMBOY, SCARE, KKNIG, SAFEW

View more Blog posts »



By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, June 21, 2012 @ 04:03 PM 15949 views

Recent Comments

    No recent comments.



It Ends (ITNDS) 150000 1.72 (-0.04)          Chris Pine (CPINE) 10 38.60 (0.00)          Bad Lieutenant: Tokyo (BADLT) 150000 4.57 (+0.40)          Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (AGINA) 50 67.84 (0.00)          Sandra Huller (SHULL) 10 53.94 (0.00)          Clayface (CLAYF) 150000 68.28 (-0.15)          Tom Cruise (TCRUI) 100 185.81 (-1.00)          Street Fighter (STFTR) 27625 76.67 (-0.08)          Street Fighter (STFTR) 181 76.67 (-0.08)          Treasure Island (TISLN) 3525 65.14 (+0.01)          Robert Downey Jr. (RDOWN) 2 219.37 (0.00)          Artificial (AIFIC) 150000 21.88 (+0.95)          Artificial (AIFIC) 150000 21.88 (+0.95)          Brad Pitt (BPITT) 10 91.00 (-0.25)          River (RIVE1) 150000 10.04 (-1.24)          River (RIVE1) 150000 10.04 (-1.24)          Tom Cruise (TCRUI) 25000 185.81 (-1.00)          Tom Cruise (TCRUI) 25000 185.81 (-1.00)          John Goodman (JGOOD) 25000 33.60 (-0.25)          John Goodman (JGOOD) 25000 33.60 (-0.25)          John Goodman (JGOOD) 25000 33.60 (-0.25)          Emma D'Arcy (EDARC) 25000 32.46 (-0.25)          Emma D'Arcy (EDARC) 25000 32.46 (-0.25)          Avengers: Secret Wars (AVNG6) 3572 554.30 (+0.51)          Patrick Schwarzenegger (PSCHW) 5000 5.31 (+0.31)          Bad Lieutenant: Tokyo (BADLT) 150000 4.57 (+0.40)          Heart of the Beast H$15 Call (HOTBS.CA) 25000 2.55 (-0.04)          Spider-Man: Brand New Day $855M (SPID9.BW) 25000 15.93 (+0.07)          Digger (DIGER) 150000 77.30 (-0.76)          Bad Lieutenant: Tokyo (BADLT) 75000 4.57 (+0.40)          Evil Genius (EVILG) 149999 5.45 (+0.59)          Copperhead (COPRH) 75000 19.02 (+0.98)          November 1963 (NOV63) 150000 6.27 (-0.07)          November 1963 (NOV63) 150000 6.27 (-0.07)          Resident Evil (RESE8) 150000 90.07 (+1.41)          Sleepover (SLEPO) 150000 24.39 (-0.96)          Sleepover (SLEPO) 150000 24.39 (-0.96)          Evil Genius (EVILG) 150000 5.45 (+0.59)          Clay (CLAY) 150000 101.47 (-0.04)          River (RIVE1) 150000 10.04 (-1.24)          Resident Evil H$40 Call (RESE8.CA) 24999 4.15 (+0.09)          The Gallerist (GALRS) 150000 5.72 (-0.01)          Heart of the Beast (HOTBS) 149999 45.35 (-0.29)          Keira Knightley (KKNIG) 25000 30.96 (-0.12)          Nicole Kidman (NKIDM) 25000 57.31 (0.00)          Sleepover (SLEPO) 149999 24.39 (-0.96)          Christian Bale (CBALE) 25000 86.89 (0.00)          Mr. Irrelevant (MREVL) 149999 30.25 (-0.13)          Resident Evil (RESE8) 149999 90.07 (+1.41)          Tunnels (TUNLS) 150000 0.05 (-0.02)