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Whisper Numbers: Brave aims for another Pixar hit

The official first weekend of summer comes with three new wide releases lead by Disney’s animated Brave [BRAVE].  Featuring the first female lead character in Pixar’s 13 film history, the PG-rated Brave is about a redheaded princess who prefers archery over corsets, but not much else is clear about the story set in ancient Scotland.  However, the Pixar brand itself is strong enough to attract audiences of all demographics. Even the subpar sequel Cars 2 debuted with $66 million last year.  Their last non-sequel Up banked a $68 million opening in 2009. one would have to go back to 2007’s Ratatouille for an underperformer at $47 million. Shooting into 4165 theaters, Brave may conquer $63 million.

The historical fantasy Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter [ALVH] surmises that our 16th President secretly slayed bloodsuckers during the Civil War. Although the R-rated film is based on a best-selling novel, recent genre mash-ups like Cowboys and Aliens and Jonah Hex have failed to find a broad audience. With no big stars in its cast, Fox’s main marketing point has been the 3D action from the director of Wanted, Timur Bekmambetov [TBEKM]. With a lack of options for young male moviegoers, Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter could attract enough wallets to score $21 million from 3106 theaters.

Even with direct competition from Brave, Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted [MADG3] could still finish second if Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter falters. Madagascar 3 looks to collect another $19 million.

In its third week of release Prometheus [PROME] should finish fourth with another $10 million. Older female moviegoers should keep the musical Rock of Ages [ROAGE] from falling more than 50% to about $8 million. Unfortunately, nothing will stop the R-rated comedy That’s My Boy [TMBOY] from dropping more than 50% to $6 million.

Steve Carell [SCARE] and Keira Knightley [KKNIG] play an unlikely couple in the R-rated romantic comedy Seeking a Friend for the End of the World [SAFEW]. In order to attract its target audience of sophisticated adults, the unconventional film needs favorable reviews. Unfortunately, the buzz have mostly been negative. Arriving in 1618 theaters, Seeking a Friend for the End of the World may find just $6.5 million.

That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): BRAVE, ALVH, TBEKM, MADG3, PROME, ROAGE, TMBOY, SCARE, KKNIG, SAFEW

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, June 21, 2012 @ 04:03 PM 15782 views

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Heart Eyes 2 (HRTE2) 150000 20.00 (0.00)          Supergirl (SUPGR) 1 164.12 (-1.17)          One Spoon of Chocolate (OSOCH) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          Heart Eyes 2 (HRTE2) 150000 20.00 (0.00)          Heart Eyes 2 (HRTE2) 150000 20.00 (0.00)          One Spoon of Chocolate (OSOCH) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          Skeletons (SKLTN) 5000 23.60 (-0.05)          Incredibles 3 (NCRD3) 29637 372.98 (+0.93)          Heart Eyes 2 (HRTE2) 150000 20.00 (0.00)          The Weight (THEWT) 150000 7.01 (+1.04)          Star Trek (TREK4) 10000 22.23 (-0.24)          Mortal Kombat II (MKMB2) 150000 75.16 (-0.47)          The Weight (THEWT) 150000 7.01 (+1.04)          Constantine 2 (CNST2) 3000 35.80 (-0.03)          Project Hail Mary H$70 Call (PRJHM.CA) 25000 3.95 (+0.47)          Project Hail Mary H$70 Call (PRJHM.CA) 25000 3.95 (+0.47)          The Weight (THEWT) 75000 7.01 (+1.04)          Jack Champion (JCHAM) 25000 150.76 (-1.00)          Blood on Snow (BLOSN) 35000 16.67 (0.00)          Ready or Not 2: Here I Come (RONO2) 100000 26.14 (-0.26)          Ready or Not 2: Here I Come (RONO2) 150000 26.14 (-0.26)          Russell Crowe (RCROW) 25000 15.51 (-0.20)          Incredibles 3 (NCRD3) 10153 372.98 (+0.93)          Ethan Hawke (EHAWK) 25000 15.74 (+0.20)          The Weight (THEWT) 150000 7.01 (+1.04)          The Horror Fund X (SPOOK) 20000 20.59 (+0.02)          Resident Evil (RESE8) 1500 52.42 (+0.34)          Man of Tomorrow (SPMOT) 100000 253.50 (+1.62)          Balls Up (BALUP) 150000 8.53 (-3.63)          Incredibles 3 (NCRD3) 140000 372.98 (+0.93)          The Simpsons Movie 2 (SIMP2) 133433 164.90 (+0.29)          Lilo & Stitch 2 (LILS2) 100000 243.64 (+0.89)          Lilo & Stitch 2 (LILS2) 100000 243.64 (+0.89)          The Super Mario Galaxy Movie (MARI2) 150000 495.03 (-0.53)          Helldivers (HELDV) 64480 99.96 (+0.46)          Incredibles 3 (NCRD3) 10000 372.98 (+0.93)          Man of Tomorrow (SPMOT) 50000 253.50 (+1.62)          Lilo & Stitch 2 (LILS2) 50000 243.64 (+0.89)          They Will Kill You - Opening Wee (TWKYU.OW) 100000 7.70 (-0.13)          Heart Eyes 2 (HRTE2) 150000 20.00 (0.00)          Ready or Not 2: Here I Come H$10 (RONO2.CA) 25000 2.94 (-0.19)          The Bride! (BRIDE) 72973 23.48 (-0.24)          Ready or Not 2: Here I Come H$10 (RONO2.CA) 25000 2.94 (-0.19)          Dynamic Duo (DYDUO) 50000 100.41 (-2.74)          Ready or Not 2: Here I Come H$10 (RONO2.PU) 25000 1.53 (+0.18)          Dynamic Duo (DYDUO) 50000 100.41 (-2.74)          Ready or Not 2: Here I Come H$10 (RONO2.PU) 25000 1.53 (+0.18)          Balls Up (BALUP) 150000 8.53 (-3.63)          Ready or Not 2: Here I Come - Op (RONO2.OW) 100000 11.19 (-0.24)          Ready or Not 2: Here I Come - Op (RONO2.OW) 100000 11.19 (-0.24)