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Whisper Numbers: Can Argo beat Taken 2?

Even with high expectations heading into last weekend, Taken 2 [TAKE2] outperformed the competition by a wide margin. As with most highly anticipated sequels, Taken 2 was likely front-loaded by fans and headed for a 50% drop to about $23 million, which may be enough to hold off the slew of newcomers at the box office.

Warner Bros.’ Argo [ARGO] arrives in theaters riding a crescendo of Oscar buzz. Ben Affleck [BAFFL] directs and stars in the film based on the true story of how the CIA rescued six Americans trapped by the 1979 Iranian Revolution. The R-rated thriller has earned overwhelmingly positive reviews, which will bring out the adult moviegoers. Opening in 3232 theaters, Argo could net $20 million.

Kevin James [KJAME] plays a teacher turned MMA fighter in the comedy Here Comes the Boom [HCTBM]. With a PG-rating and formulaic storyline, the film aims to capture a broad audience. However, Here Comes the Boom may be too family-friendly for fans of the fighting sport, which itself could turned off women. Competition for young male moviegoers is also fierce this weekend. Fighting in 3014 theaters, Here Comes the Boom may earn $15 million.

The R-rated horror film Sinister [SINIS] stars Ethan Hawke [EHAWK] as a family man who uncovers some disturbing home videos. The Summit release has generated positive buzz from early reviews, which should attract horror fans. Sinister could scare up $14 million from 2527 locations.

Colin Farrell [CFARR], Woody Harrelson [WHARR] and Christopher Walken [CWALK] star in the R-rated comedy Seven Psychopaths [7PSYC]. Since none of the cast are guaranteed draws, CBS Films has done an admirable marketing job with funny trailers. Opening in just 1512 theaters, Seven Psychopaths could ransom about $7.5 million.

After 3 weeks of limited release, Perks of Being a Wallflower [POBWF] expands nationwide to 762 theaters. Based on a popular young adult novel, the PG-13 rated drama will primarily draw on young women. Perks of Being a Wallflower could dance away with about $3.5 million.

The weekend’s last new release is the sequel based on the Ayn Rand novel, Atlas Shrugged, Part II [ATLA2].  The first film grossed a respectable $4.6 million in limited release. The sequel will open wide in 1012 theaters and could tally $2.5 million.

That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): TAKE2, ARGO, BAFFL, KJAME, HCTBM, SINIS, EHAWK, CFARR, WHARR, CWALK, 7PSYC, POBWF, ATLA2

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, October 11, 2012 @ 04:15 PM 6228 views

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The Super Mario Galaxy Movie (MARI2) 300 498.02 (-0.20)          They Will Kill You (TWKYU) 20000 24.41 (+0.02)          The Housemaid's Secret (HMAI2) 5 78.80 (+0.58)          The Custom of the Country (TCOTC) 10000 18.00 (0.00)          Shiver (SHVER) 21 63.79 (+6.39)          Spaceballs 2 (SPCB2) 10000 120.41 (-0.23)          Daisy Ridley (DRIDL) 25000 2.42 (+0.09)          How To Rob A Bank (HTRAB) 10039 46.33 (-0.11)          Star Wars: Dawn of the Jedi (STRW1) 10000 109.75 (-0.84)          Minions 3 (MNIO3) 2000 317.45 (-0.16)          The Custom of the Country (TCOTC) 500 18.00 (0.00)          Incredibles 3 (NCRD3) 2 349.58 (-0.23)          The Goonies 2 (GONI2) 50000 65.26 (-0.23)          Bambi (BAMBI) 150 13.74 (-0.04)          Assassination (ASSNT) 4 8.09 (+0.01)          Slanted (SLANT) 150000 5.07 (+0.56)          Slanted (SLANT) 150000 5.07 (+0.56)          Bermuda (BTRIA) 2000 0.87 (-0.01)          Bermuda (BTRIA) 15 0.87 (-0.01)          The Custom of the Country (TCOTC) 150000 18.00 (0.00)          Shaun The Sheep: The Beast Of Mo (SHEP3) 150000 13.08 (+0.53)          Starship Troopers (STRPR) 5000 39.98 (+0.03)          ABC: RJ Decker (RJDECK) 25000 8.99 (+0.99)          NBC: The Fall and Rise of Reggie (FARORD) 25000 9.06 (+1.06)          Miss Piggy (MSPIG) 1270 33.37 (+0.02)          Planes, Trains and Automobiles (PTAUT) 210 8.68 (0.00)          Deeper (DEPER) 10000 36.84 (0.00)          District 10 (DIS10) 6179 16.25 (0.00)          A Tree is Blue (ATBLU) 150000 3.86 (-0.51)          A Tree is Blue (ATBLU) 150000 3.86 (-0.51)          Paper Tiger (PTIGR) 75 22.68 (0.00)          The Bride! (BRIDE) 30000 45.03 (+0.13)          Painter (PANTR) 335 6.64 (0.00)          Honeymoon With Harry (HWHRY) 99 14.02 (-0.08)          Heart of the Beast (HOTBS) 159 31.01 (+0.03)          Scream 7 (SCRM7) 2493 81.52 (+0.90)          Tuner (TUNER) 150000 6.41 (+0.55)          Tuner (TUNER) 150000 6.41 (+0.55)          The One (THEON) 300 3.56 (+0.02)          Transformers 8 (TFRM8) 4 46.44 (-0.07)          Undertone (UNDTN) 150000 12.84 (+0.95)          Undertone (UNDTN) 150000 12.84 (+0.95)          El Muerto (MUERT) 200 4.80 (-0.02)          El Muerto (MUERT) 5 4.80 (-0.02)          Minions 3 (MNIO3) 5003 317.45 (-0.16)          Shaun The Sheep: The Beast Of Mo (SHEP3) 150000 13.08 (+0.53)          Shelter (SELTR) 50000 13.43 (+0.63)          The Kingsman 3 (KTSS4) 450 3.65 (-0.02)          The Gallerist (GALRS) 4 8.52 (+0.01)          I Heart Murder (IHMUR) 1400 1.58 (+0.01)