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Whisper Numbers: Can Argo beat Taken 2?

Even with high expectations heading into last weekend, Taken 2 [TAKE2] outperformed the competition by a wide margin. As with most highly anticipated sequels, Taken 2 was likely front-loaded by fans and headed for a 50% drop to about $23 million, which may be enough to hold off the slew of newcomers at the box office.

Warner Bros.’ Argo [ARGO] arrives in theaters riding a crescendo of Oscar buzz. Ben Affleck [BAFFL] directs and stars in the film based on the true story of how the CIA rescued six Americans trapped by the 1979 Iranian Revolution. The R-rated thriller has earned overwhelmingly positive reviews, which will bring out the adult moviegoers. Opening in 3232 theaters, Argo could net $20 million.

Kevin James [KJAME] plays a teacher turned MMA fighter in the comedy Here Comes the Boom [HCTBM]. With a PG-rating and formulaic storyline, the film aims to capture a broad audience. However, Here Comes the Boom may be too family-friendly for fans of the fighting sport, which itself could turned off women. Competition for young male moviegoers is also fierce this weekend. Fighting in 3014 theaters, Here Comes the Boom may earn $15 million.

The R-rated horror film Sinister [SINIS] stars Ethan Hawke [EHAWK] as a family man who uncovers some disturbing home videos. The Summit release has generated positive buzz from early reviews, which should attract horror fans. Sinister could scare up $14 million from 2527 locations.

Colin Farrell [CFARR], Woody Harrelson [WHARR] and Christopher Walken [CWALK] star in the R-rated comedy Seven Psychopaths [7PSYC]. Since none of the cast are guaranteed draws, CBS Films has done an admirable marketing job with funny trailers. Opening in just 1512 theaters, Seven Psychopaths could ransom about $7.5 million.

After 3 weeks of limited release, Perks of Being a Wallflower [POBWF] expands nationwide to 762 theaters. Based on a popular young adult novel, the PG-13 rated drama will primarily draw on young women. Perks of Being a Wallflower could dance away with about $3.5 million.

The weekend’s last new release is the sequel based on the Ayn Rand novel, Atlas Shrugged, Part II [ATLA2].  The first film grossed a respectable $4.6 million in limited release. The sequel will open wide in 1012 theaters and could tally $2.5 million.

That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): TAKE2, ARGO, BAFFL, KJAME, HCTBM, SINIS, EHAWK, CFARR, WHARR, CWALK, 7PSYC, POBWF, ATLA2

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, October 11, 2012 @ 04:15 PM 6259 views

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The Simpsons Movie 2 (SIMP2) 150000 164.60 (-0.01)          Parker Posey (PPOSE) 25000 8.33 (+0.05)          The Weight (THEWT) 40000 6.97 (+1.00)          Spaceballs 2 (SPCB2) 150000 123.37 (0.00)          Fast Forever (FAF11) 150000 128.63 (+0.66)          Star Wars: Dawn of the Jedi (STRW1) 150000 95.29 (+0.72)          The Weight (THEWT) 10000 6.97 (+1.00)          James Bond 26 (JB26) 150000 158.69 (+0.86)          Balls Up (BALUP) 150000 9.33 (-2.83)          In the Hand of Dante (ITHOD) 150000 5.29 (-1.17)          Sing 3 (SING3) 5000 52.28 (-0.39)          The Weight (THEWT) 150000 6.97 (+1.00)          Paris Paramount aka Untitled Nan (PRSPM) 140000 50.59 (+0.15)          Project Hail Mary - Opening Week (PRJHM.OW) 100000 77.36 (+0.50)          Helldivers (HELDV) 140000 99.96 (+0.46)          Victorian Psycho (VPSYC) 40000 14.11 (-0.15)          Dynamic Duo (DYDUO) 150000 100.42 (-2.73)          Project Hail Mary - Opening Week (PRJHM.OW) 100000 77.36 (+0.50)          Heart Eyes 2 (HRTE2) 150000 20.00 (0.00)          One Spoon of Chocolate (OSOCH) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          Dynamic Duo (DYDUO) 150000 100.42 (-2.73)          The Super Mario Galaxy Movie - O (MARI2.OW) 100000 146.04 (+1.04)          The Super Mario Galaxy Movie H$1 (MARI2.CA) 25000 2.91 (+0.91)          Heart Eyes 2 (HRTE2) 25000 20.00 (0.00)          Sing 3 (SING3) 4999 52.28 (-0.39)          Dune: Part Three (DUNE3) 1000 234.74 (-0.40)          Balls Up (BALUP) 20000 9.33 (-2.83)          Shameik Moore (SMOOR) 25000 91.79 (-1.10)          Sing 3 (SING3) 1 52.28 (-0.39)          One Spoon of Chocolate (OSOCH) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          RJ Cyler (RCYLE) 25000 25.87 (-0.50)          Paper Tiger (PTIGR) 10000 22.27 (-0.06)          The Beatles - A Four-Film Cinema (BEAT1) 17 117.50 (-0.24)          Dynamic Duo (DYDUO) 150000 100.42 (-2.73)          Sandra Huller (SHULL) 25000 18.08 (+0.20)          Featherwood (FTHRW) 10000 7.23 (0.00)          Heart Eyes 2 (HRTE2) 150000 20.00 (0.00)          Balls Up (BALUP) 150000 9.33 (-2.83)          Balls Up (BALUP) 150000 9.33 (-2.83)          The Drama H$15 Call (TDRAM.CA) 25000 2.37 (+0.37)          The Drama H$15 Put (TDRAM.PU) 25000 1.50 (-0.50)          Verity (VERTY) 10000 39.15 (+0.06)          One Spoon of Chocolate (OSOCH) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          The Super Mario Galaxy Movie - O (MARI2.OW) 5000 146.04 (+1.04)          The Drama (TDRAM) 11620 34.60 (+0.07)          The Drama (TDRAM) 1620 34.60 (+0.07)          Heart Eyes 2 (HRTE2) 150000 20.00 (0.00)          The Super Mario Galaxy Movie H$1 (MARI2.CA) 25000 2.91 (+0.91)          The Super Mario Galaxy Movie H$1 (MARI2.PU) 25000 1.76 (-0.24)          The Super Mario Galaxy Movie (MARI2) 1000 495.05 (-0.51)