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Whisper Number: How Great and Powerful will Oz be?

After a blockbuster wannabe failed to ignite the box office last weekend, Oz the Great and Powerful [OZTGP] arrives as the first true event film of the 2013.  A prequel to the beloved Wizard of Oz, Oz the Great and Powerful stars James Franco [JAFRA] as a magician who is transported to the fabled fantasy realm and meets three witch sisters, played by Michelle Williams [MWILL], Mila Kunis [MKUNI], and Rachel Weisz [RWEIS]. He has to figure out who is good and who is evil, while finding the brain, heart and courage to become the Wizard to save Oz. Directed by Sam Raimi [SRAIM], the PG-rated film appeals to a broad demographic from families to teens to older women. Disney opened Alice in Wonderland to $116 million three years ago. Without the starpower of Johnny Depp, Oz the Great and Powerful is unlikely to reach that lofty sum. Landing in 3912 theaters, Oz the Great and Powerful could conjure up at least $80 million.

Although Jack the Giant Slayer [JACGK] was able to capture  the family audience in its debut, many moviegoers will be siphoned away by Oz the Great and Powerful. Jack looks to tumble 50% to $13 million in its second weekend.

FilmDistrict counters the mega-CG films with the crime thriller Dead Man Down [DMDWN] starring Colin Farrell [CFARR] and Noomi Rapace [NRAPA]. Producer WWE Films has promoted Dead Man Down in its various outlets. However, the R-rated film doesn’t offer anything new in a season where many action films have already bombed. Dead Man Down may earn $6 million from 2188 theaters.

Identity Thief continues to exhibit strong legs and should remain in the top five with about $5.5 million in its fifth weekend. On the otherhand, the party is likely to be over for 21 and Over [21OVR] as the crowd dwindles 55% in its second weekend to $4 million.

That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): OZTGP, JAFRA, MWILL, MKUNI, RWEIS, SRAIM, JACGK, DMDWN, CFARR, NRAPA, 21OVR

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, March 7, 2013 @ 04:27 PM 3112 views

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