SPIN FACTOR®

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Whisper Numbers: How Dumb will the weekend get?

Winning over critics and moviegoers alike, Disney’s animated blockbuster Big Hero 6 [BHERO] should continue to fly high on extremely positive word of mouth. BayMax has no competition for the family audience. Frozen opened over Thanksgiving last year so its hold pattern isn't comparable, but Wreck-It Ralph didn't and declined 33% in its second weekend.  Big Hero 6 may be able to hold 70% of its opening weekend at around $39 million.

Twenty years after Dumb and Dumber, Jim Carrey [JCARR] and Jeff Daniels [JDANI] finally reunite with the Farrelly brothers [FARRE] for the sequel Dumb and Dumber To [DUMB3]. The first film opened to $16 million in 1994, or $31 million today adjusted for inflation, and remains beloved by fans of all ages. Universal hopes nostalgia will drive moviegoers into theaters, since reviews are unlikely to be kind. Advance ticket sales are pacing ahead of Anchorman 2, another PG-13 rated sequel to a beloved original, which opened on a Wednesday to a $26.2 million weekend. Playing in 3152 theaters, Dumb and Dumber To could smart up to $34 million.

The sci-fi blockbuster Interstellar [NTSTL] may slip 45% in its second weekend to $26 million.

Relativity targets urban markets with the PG-13 romance Beyond the Lights [BLACB]. While not household names, Gugu Mbatha-Raw [GMBAT] and Nate Parker [NAPAR] are an attractive pairing and the pop music industry is a glamorous backdrop.  Bowing in 1789 theaters, Beyond the Lights could tally $9 million.

After earning $9 million in 4 weeks of limited release, Birdman [BIRDM] expands wide into 857 theaters. Michael Keaton [MKEAT] stars in the critically-acclaimed drama, which is a leading contender for year-end awards. Birdman could collect $3.5 million.

That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): BHERO, JCARR, JDANI, FARRE, DUMB3, NTSTL, BLACB, GMBAT, NAPAR, BIRDM, MKEAT

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, November 13, 2014 @ 03:09 PM 1961 views

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