The pre-Thanksgiving table has been set for the biggest opening weekend of the year. Jennifer Lawrence [JLAWR] returns to lead The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 [HGAM3], the third chapter in the sci-fi phenomenon. While the first two films centered on the titled life-or-death tournament, Mockingjay finds Katniss fully involved in a revolutionary war. Lionsgate has not showed much footage from the PG-13 rated film, confident that the sequel sells itself, or perhaps because Mockingjay was the least-liked of the book trilogy with its already thin material being stretched into two films. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire debuted a year ago with $158.1 million, the sixth best ever. While advance sales have been brisk, there’s been no press release announcing whether Mockingjay Part 1 is outpacing Catching Fire or even the first The Hunger Games, which opened to $152.5 million March 2012. Unlike its predecessors, Mockingjay Part 1 will not have the benefit of higher-priced IMAX screen. The reviews have been the worst of the three films thus far. While reviews will not matter to die-hard fans, some adults may choose to wait out Part 1 of an obvious attempt to double-dip the fanbase. Taking aim in 4151 theaters, The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 may hit $148 million.
Big Hero 6 [BHERO] did not hold as well as Wreck-It Ralph in its second weekend. With The Hunger Games taking away some of the teen audience, Big Hero 6 may settle for another $20 million.
Twenty years of nostalgia likely front-loaded Dumb and Dumber To [DUMB3], and the comedy sequel looks to drop more than 50% to around $17 million.
Holding on to its IMAX screens, Interstellar [NTSTL] could suck in about $17 million.
That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.
Tag(s): JLAWR, HGAM3, BHERO, DUMB3, NTSTL