SPIN FACTOR®

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Whisper Numbers: New Moon may eclipse Transformers for best 2009 opening weekend.

Twilight fanatics have gone into pandemonium in anticipation for the sequel The Twilight Saga: New Moon [TWLI2].  Even thought Twilight open to $69.6 million last year, its mostly female fanbase has reached the level of the Harry Potter series.  The PG-13 rated romance has sold the most advance ticket sales ever for Movietickets.com and Fandango, topping the previous number one Star Wars: Episode III: Revenge of the Sith.  Summit brought on new director Chris Weitz [CWEIT] to expand the scope of the sequel as the story segues into a love triangle between Edward, Bella and Jacob.  The promise of werewolves and more vampires could even bring out curious guys.  Twilighters will be out to break the midnight box office record.   Descending in 4024 theaters, New Moon may eclipse $105 million in its debut.

2012 [2012S] took the box office by storm last weekend, but effects-heavy disaster film are typically front-loaded   Roland Emmerich’s [REMME] last film 10,000 B.C. dropped 53% in its second session.  2012 probably won’t do much better than $30 million. 

Sandra Bullock [SBULL] is back with her third film in 2009.  The sports drama The Blind Side [BLDSD] is based on the true story of a black orphan who was taken in by a well-to-do white family and becomes a football phenom.  The heart-tugging sentimentality will attract audience looking for a feel-good story, while turning off a whole different segment.   Lining up in 3110 theaters, The Blind Side could score about $15 million.

Sony’s CG animated Planet 51 [PLT51] was picked up from an outside animation studio, rather than produced in house. The PG-rated film reverses the roles of the typical alien storyline by making a human astronaut the extra-terrestrial on an alien planet.  Although the lack of 3D could hurt business from older kids, the light humor should attract families with young children.  Planet 51 could claim $14 million from 3035 locations.

After holding steady in its second weekend, A Christmas Carol [CAROL] looks to be a strong performer for the long haul.  Families in the holiday spirit should bring in another $13 million.

Lionsgate’s Precious [PRCUS] broke out into the third slot last week on just 174 theaters.  The R-rated drama could connect with $11 million from 629 theaters this weekend.

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.




Tag(s): TWLI2, CWEIT, 2012S, REMME, SBULL, BLDSD, PLT51, CAROL, PRCUS

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, November 19, 2009 @ 04:06 PM 3691 views

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