SPIN FACTOR®

The HSX Blog



Whisper Numbers: Avatar goes for eight in a row.

Two new contenders will enter the multiplex against the all-time box office champion Avatar [HWAVA].  However, neither looks to have the buzz to prevail over the nine times Oscar-nominated sci-fi epic.  Even with the Super Bowl on Sunday, Avatar probably won’t decline more than 20% to around $25 million, which should be enough to win for the eighth consecutive weekend.

The romance Dear John [DEARJ] has the best chance to dethrone Avatar this week.  The tearjerker is aimed at young women, the demographic most uninterested in football’s biggest weekend.  Rising stars Amanada Seyfried [ASEYF] and Channing Tatum [CTATU] play a couple in a long-distance relationship based on the novel by Nicholas Sparks.  With a built-in fanbase, the PG-13 rated drama could gain upwards of $18 million from 2969 locations. 

Last Super Bowl weekend, director Pierre Morel [PMORE] scored a breakout hit with Taken. Lionsgate hopes to replicate that success with his new film From Paris with Love [FPWLV]. However, the marketing has yet to find an unique hook other than the usual action set pieces and the starpower of John Travolta [JTRAV] and Jonathan Rhys Meyers [JRMEY]. Opening in 2722 theaters, From Paris with Love could take home $15 million.

The R-rated thriller Edge of Darkness [EDRKN] should finish fourth with around $9 million for its sophomore frame, while the romantic comedy When in Rome [WROME] gets a second date of about $7 million.

Crazy Heart [CRZHT] expands into 819 theaters for a wide release on the strength of its double nominations for stars Jeff Bridges [JBRID] and Maggie Gyllenhaal [MGYLL].   The Fox Searchlight drama could tug out $5 million from older moviegoers. 

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.




Tag(s): HWAVA, DEARJ, ASEYF, CTATU, PMORE, FPWLV, JTRAV, JRMEY, EDRKN, WROME, CRZHT, JBRID, MGYLL

View more Blog posts »



By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, February 4, 2010 @ 05:06 PM 3267 views

Recent Comments

    No recent comments.



In a Violent Nature (IAVNT) 50000 3.68 (-0.32)          Relay (RELAY) 1000 4.22 (0.00)          Frozen III (FROZ3) 150000 279.27 (+2.25)          Frozen III (FROZ3) 150000 279.27 (+2.25)          In a Violent Nature (IAVNT) 150000 3.68 (-0.32)          Downtown Owl (DTOWL) 150000 1.40 (-0.04)          The Naked Gun (NKGUN) 150000 34.89 (+0.20)          Civil War (CVLWR) 2000 64.55 (0.00)          Sydney Sweeney (SSWEE) 25000 72.73 (+0.25)          Sight (SIGHT) 10000 8.39 (-0.47)          Martin Freeman (MAFRE) 25000 100.42 (+0.33)          Sight (SIGHT) 35000 8.39 (-0.47)          Kumail Nanjiani (KNANJ) 25000 97.44 (-0.25)          Monkey Man (MNKYM) 13000 23.32 (0.00)          Ian McShane (IMCSH) 25000 111.07 (+0.33)          David Dastmalchian (DDAST) 25000 106.14 (0.00)          Celeste O’Connor (COCON) 25000 55.99 (-0.16)          Bill Murray (BMURR) 25000 105.56 (-0.33)          The Return (TRETU) 150000 3.29 (+0.05)          Dracula - A Love Tale (DRALT) 150000 17.76 (+0.30)          Last Breath (LBRTH) 50000 13.23 (-0.04)          Front Room (FRTRM) 150000 2.30 (+0.02)          The Crow (TCROW) 150000 23.18 (-0.02)          The Bad Guys 2 (TBAD2) 150000 66.29 (+0.20)          All That I Am (ATIAM) 150000 0.60 (+0.02)          With Love (WOLOV) 50000 24.54 (+0.02)          The Bad Guys 2 (TBAD2) 50000 66.29 (+0.20)          Take My Hand (TAKMH) 150000 1.22 (+0.01)          Dracula - A Love Tale (DRALT) 150000 17.76 (+0.30)          Daddio (DADIO) 150000 3.86 (-0.55)          The Housewife (THSWF) 150000 7.20 (-0.03)          Bird (BIRD) 100000 3.04 (+0.02)          The Fall Guy (FALGY) 100000 137.31 (-0.40)          The Fall Guy (FALGY) 80000 137.31 (-0.40)          Barbarella (BARBA) 10000 48.93 (-0.30)          Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy (BJON4) 150000 9.41 (-0.13)          The Crow (TCROW) 100000 23.18 (-0.02)          Sight (SIGHT) 150000 8.39 (-0.47)          Dracula - A Love Tale (DRALT) 150000 17.76 (+0.30)          Daddio (DADIO) 150000 3.86 (-0.55)          Daddio (DADIO) 50000 3.86 (-0.55)          Summer Camp (SUMCP) 100000 7.57 (+0.02)          Night Has Fallen (HFAL4) 50000 6.23 (+0.16)          Rumours (RUMRS) 49999 7.15 (-0.57)          Sight (SIGHT) 4999 8.39 (-0.47)          Young Woman and the Sea (YWATS) 100000 17.76 (+0.58)          Sight (SIGHT) 100000 8.39 (-0.47)          Rumours (RUMRS) 90000 7.15 (-0.57)          In a Violent Nature (IAVNT) 150000 3.68 (-0.32)          Young Woman and the Sea (YWATS) 100000 17.76 (+0.58)