Two new contenders will enter the multiplex against the all-time box office champion Avatar [HWAVA]. However, neither looks to have the buzz to prevail over the nine times Oscar-nominated sci-fi epic. Even with the Super Bowl on Sunday, Avatar probably won’t decline more than 20% to around $25 million, which should be enough to win for the eighth consecutive weekend.
The romance Dear John [DEARJ] has the best chance to dethrone Avatar this week. The tearjerker is aimed at young women, the demographic most uninterested in football’s biggest weekend. Rising stars Amanada Seyfried [ASEYF] and Channing Tatum [CTATU] play a couple in a long-distance relationship based on the novel by Nicholas Sparks. With a built-in fanbase, the PG-13 rated drama could gain upwards of $18 million from 2969 locations.
Last Super Bowl weekend, director Pierre Morel [PMORE] scored a breakout hit with Taken. Lionsgate hopes to replicate that success with his new film From Paris with Love [FPWLV]. However, the marketing has yet to find an unique hook other than the usual action set pieces and the starpower of John Travolta [JTRAV] and Jonathan Rhys Meyers [JRMEY]. Opening in 2722 theaters, From Paris with Love could take home $15 million.
The R-rated thriller Edge of Darkness [EDRKN] should finish fourth with around $9 million for its sophomore frame, while the romantic comedy When in Rome [WROME] gets a second date of about $7 million.
Crazy Heart [CRZHT] expands into 819 theaters for a wide release on the strength of its double nominations for stars Jeff Bridges [JBRID] and Maggie Gyllenhaal [MGYLL]. The Fox Searchlight drama could tug out $5 million from older moviegoers.
That’s the whisper from the trading floor.
Tag(s): HWAVA, DEARJ, ASEYF, CTATU, PMORE, FPWLV, JTRAV, JRMEY, EDRKN, WROME, CRZHT, JBRID, MGYLL