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Whisper Numbers: Avatar goes for eight in a row.

Two new contenders will enter the multiplex against the all-time box office champion Avatar [HWAVA].  However, neither looks to have the buzz to prevail over the nine times Oscar-nominated sci-fi epic.  Even with the Super Bowl on Sunday, Avatar probably won’t decline more than 20% to around $25 million, which should be enough to win for the eighth consecutive weekend.

The romance Dear John [DEARJ] has the best chance to dethrone Avatar this week.  The tearjerker is aimed at young women, the demographic most uninterested in football’s biggest weekend.  Rising stars Amanada Seyfried [ASEYF] and Channing Tatum [CTATU] play a couple in a long-distance relationship based on the novel by Nicholas Sparks.  With a built-in fanbase, the PG-13 rated drama could gain upwards of $18 million from 2969 locations. 

Last Super Bowl weekend, director Pierre Morel [PMORE] scored a breakout hit with Taken. Lionsgate hopes to replicate that success with his new film From Paris with Love [FPWLV]. However, the marketing has yet to find an unique hook other than the usual action set pieces and the starpower of John Travolta [JTRAV] and Jonathan Rhys Meyers [JRMEY]. Opening in 2722 theaters, From Paris with Love could take home $15 million.

The R-rated thriller Edge of Darkness [EDRKN] should finish fourth with around $9 million for its sophomore frame, while the romantic comedy When in Rome [WROME] gets a second date of about $7 million.

Crazy Heart [CRZHT] expands into 819 theaters for a wide release on the strength of its double nominations for stars Jeff Bridges [JBRID] and Maggie Gyllenhaal [MGYLL].   The Fox Searchlight drama could tug out $5 million from older moviegoers. 

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.




Tag(s): HWAVA, DEARJ, ASEYF, CTATU, PMORE, FPWLV, JTRAV, JRMEY, EDRKN, WROME, CRZHT, JBRID, MGYLL

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, February 4, 2010 @ 05:06 PM 2931 views

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Shang-Chi $195M Blockbuster Warr (SHCHI.BW) 25000 5.00 (0.00)         The Things They Carried (TTTHC) 150000 14.95 (-0.15)         Awkwafina (AWKWA) 63 104.01 (-0.06)         The Card Counter (CRDCT) 10000 3.28 (0.00)         NBC: Ordinary Joe (ORDJOE) 4000 12.17 (+0.08)         The Tiger Rising (TGRSN) 150000 4.06 (-0.11)         FOX: Our Kind of People (OKOPEP) 2500 12.78 (0.00)         The Heart (THART) 150000 1.84 (-0.02)         Shang-Chi $195M Blockbuster Warr (SHCHI.BW) 25000 5.00 (0.00)         Kojak (KOJAK) 49962 0.01 (-0.02)         Captain America 4 (CAPA4) 1500 152.23 (-1.06)         The Gray Man (GRYMN) 49999 0.02 (+0.01)         Blade (BLAD1) 3000 127.43 (+0.22)         Dune (DUNE) 1000 119.18 (+0.37)         Gunpowder Milkshake (GPDMS) 4995 0.01 (-0.01)         Cyrano (CYRNO) 1000 17.37 (-0.05)         Choose Your Own Adventure (CYOA) 15 0.01 (-0.02)         Red Rocket (RRCKT) 2000 4.46 (-0.03)         Harold and the Purple Crayon (HATPC) 7500 27.37 (-2.63)         This is the Night (THNIT) 5000 0.01 (0.00)         Back in the Day Fund (PERID) 6000 45.96 (+0.21)         The Heart (THART) 150000 1.84 (-0.02)         Choose Your Own Adventure (CYOA) 16997 0.01 (-0.02)         This is the Night (THNIT) 9000 0.01 (0.00)         The Goon (TGOON) 150000 0.24 (-0.04)         Highlander (HIGHL) 149000 9.78 (+0.02)         Swan Song (SWSNG) 9000 0.04 (+0.03)         Flag Day (FLAGD) 9000 0.36 (-0.07)         The Lost Leonardo (TLLEO) 9000 0.25 (+0.02)         CODA (CODA) 9000 0.02 (+0.01)         The Goon (TGOON) 150000 0.24 (-0.04)         The East (THEAS) 9000 0.08 (+0.05)         Swan Song (SWSNG) 9000 0.04 (+0.03)         SNAFU aka Project X-traction (PRJXT) 150000 1.01 (+0.03)         Naked Singularity (NSNGU) 9000 0.06 (+0.04)         Flag Day (FLAGD) 7042 0.36 (-0.07)         Flag Day (FLAGD) 1042 0.36 (-0.07)         Dear Evan Hansen (DEHAN) 150000 21.93 (-0.35)         Summering (SUMRN) 150000 6.28 (+0.45)         Summering (SUMRN) 150000 6.28 (+0.45)         Atomic Blonde 2 (ABLO2) 3998 0.01 (0.00)         Morbius (MORBI) 149000 117.60 (+1.12)         Naked Singularity (NSNGU) 150000 0.06 (+0.04)         CODA (CODA) 9000 0.02 (+0.01)         Naked Singularity (NSNGU) 9000 0.06 (+0.04)         Val (VAL) 5000 0.01 (-0.02)         The Brutalist (BRUTL) 50000 2.94 (+0.04)         Cha Cha Real Smooth (CCRS) 50000 4.62 (-0.08)         Shang-Chi $195M Blockbuster Warr (SHCHI.BW) 25000 5.00 (0.00)         The East (THEAS) 9000 0.08 (+0.05)