SPIN FACTOR®

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Whisper Numbers: Valentine’s Day wants to be your movie date.

After the success of last year’s ensemble romantic comedy He's Just Not That Into You, Warner Bros. quickly cobbled together another reel of love vignettes for release this Valentine’s Day weekend called, wait for it, Valentine’s Day [VSDAY].  Starring every hot actor and actress in Hollywood, the Love, Actually - American Style is not so much a movie, but an excuse for a money grab on a weekend when lovers open up their hearts as well as their wallets. With the day of romance falling on Sunday back to back with the President’s Day holiday, the box office should be bountiful all around on this long weekend.  Hitting 3665 theaters, Valentine’s Day could score $40 million from couples as well the lovelorn single ladies.

Percy Jackson & The Olympians: The Lightning Thief [PJALT] is the latest fantasy film with designs on becoming the next Harry Potter. Fox even recruited director Christopher Columbus [CCOLU], who conjured up the first two Harry Potter films.  Logan Lerman [LLERM] plays a modern day descendant of the Greek Gods who gets caught up in a special effects laden tug of war.  Percy Jackson could tap into the renew interest in Greek mythology that Clash of the Titans [CLASH] has helped stirred up.  Jumper opened with $32 million over the same period in 2008, while Bridge to Terabithia did $28 million in 2007.  As the most family-friendly of the new releases this weekend, the PG-rated fantasy could light up $28 million from 3356 theaters over the 4-day holiday period. 

More press has been written about the production woes and delays of The Wolfman [WOLFM] than to the movie itself.  Director Joe Johnston [JOJOH] was a last minute replacement on the horror film which has gone through numerous cuts and release date changes.   Benicio Del Toro [BDELT], who is not a proven box office draw, seemed like an odd choice to headline Universal’s big budget remake of their 1941 werewolf movie.  The R-rated period horror may have limited its appeal to older male fans of the genre.  The Wolfman could collect $25 million from 3222 theaters over President’s Day weekend. 

Dear John [DEARJ] will forever be known as the film that knocked off Avatar.  The question now is, was the tearjerker front-loaded by its teen girl fanbase or will it have the long legs of a female-targeted romance?  Even with competition from Valentine’s Day, Dear John should still be able to deliver $22 million over the next four days. 

The holiday weekend should bring out some last holdouts who have yet to experience Avatar.  The domestic box office champion looks to add another $18 million to its all time record.

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.




Tag(s): VSDAY, PJALT, CCOLU, LLERM, CLASH, WOLFM, JOJOH, BDELT, DEARJ

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, February 11, 2010 @ 04:19 PM 3692 views

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