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Whisper Numbers: The Twilight Saga set to Eclipse the box office.

Two new films with built-in audiences open mid-week as the box office head into the Independence Day holiday weekend.  The phenomenon The Twilight Saga returns with its third entry Eclipse [TWLI3].   The sequel has already set a new midnight record at $30+ million on its way to a first day total of $68.5 million, which also becomes a box office record for Wednesday.  There was no doubt the vampire vs. werewolf romance would be highly anticipated by “Twihards”.  The question now is whether Eclipse will turn out to be front-loaded.  Summit has given Eclipse the widest release ever at 4416 theaters.  Good word of mouth should drive additional business over the holiday weekend.  Team Edward and Team Jacob together are poised to haul in $95 million over the 4-day weekend for a 6-day total around $185 million.

Even though Toy Story 3 [TOYS3] will give up the box office crown after two weeks, the Pixar animated sequel should remain the number one option for a broad segment of moviegoers.  The holiday weekend gives them a chance to check out the beloved characters for the last time on screen.  Toy Story 3 looks to bank another $40 million.

M. Night Shylamalan [MNSHY] has adapted the anime series “Avatar: The Last Airbender” into the live-action The Last Airbender [BENDR].  The PG-rated fantasy is riding in on a wave of bad publicity from casting White actors in Asian roles to the late conversion to 3D.  The film is likely to only appeal to families with young children as the terrible reviews may even turn off the hardcore fans.  Swooping into 3169 theaters, The Last Airbender could gather $32 million over the 4-day weekend for a 6-day total around $42 million.

Adam Sandler [ASAND] and gang have not grown up and moviegoers love them for it.  Grown Ups [GRWUP] should bring families together over the holiday weekend to display around $24 million worth of box office fireworks.

The mild opening of Knight and Day [KNDAY] demonstrated moviegoers are over Tom Cruise [TCRUI].  The action romance may settle for $12 million over the 4-day weekend.

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.



Tag(s): TWLI3, TOYS3, MNSHY, BENDR, ASAND, GRWUP, KNDAY, TCRUI

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, July 1, 2010 @ 02:19 PM 3949 views

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b4bad
Friday, July 2 at 07:33 AM Pacific
Thursday estimates put it to $16M ... source : http://www.deadline.com/2010/07/thursday-box-office-eclipse-25m-the-last-airbender-16m-toy-story-3-8m/



Pedro Pascal (PPASC) 25000 120.46 (+0.33)          River (RIVE1) 20588 10.40 (-0.88)          Paul Rudd (PRUDD) 25000 53.72 (+0.33)          Paul Rudd (PRUDD) 25000 53.72 (+0.33)          Resident Evil (RESE8) 150000 89.32 (+0.66)          Patricia Clarkson (PCLAR) 25000 2.01 (+0.02)          Patrick Wilson (PWILS) 25000 91.87 (-0.75)          Patrick Wilson (PWILS) 25000 91.87 (-0.75)          I Play Rocky (IPROC) 150000 42.53 (+0.15)          Ghost Rider (GHSRD) 11515 155.99 (+0.02)          Sicario 3 (SICA3) 150000 8.36 (+0.03)          Bad Lieutenant: Tokyo (BADLT) 150000 4.47 (+0.30)          Anne Hathaway (AHATH) 25000 107.81 (+0.66)          The Uprising (THOOD) 150000 8.16 (-0.10)          Practical Magic 2 (PRAC2) 150000 72.87 (-0.25)          Copperhead (COPRH) 150000 18.61 (+0.57)          Copperhead (COPRH) 150000 18.61 (+0.57)          Still Life (STILF) 150000 6.18 (-0.03)          Saw XI aka Saw 11 (SAW11) 150000 18.35 (+0.04)          Digger (DIGER) 150000 77.39 (-0.67)          River (RIVE1) 150000 10.40 (-0.88)          Digger (DIGER) 150000 77.39 (-0.67)          River (RIVE1) 150000 10.40 (-0.88)          Evil Genius (EVILG) 150000 5.26 (+0.40)          Evil Genius (EVILG) 150000 5.26 (+0.40)          Sleepover (SLEPO) 150000 24.85 (-0.50)          Artificial (AIFIC) 83164 21.52 (+0.59)          Artificial (AIFIC) 150000 21.52 (+0.59)          River (RIVE1) 150000 10.40 (-0.88)          Digger (DIGER) 100000 77.39 (-0.67)          Paul Mescal (PMESC) 25000 39.39 (0.00)          Alone at Dawn aka Combat Control (ADAWN) 150000 22.39 (+0.29)          Alone at Dawn aka Combat Control (ADAWN) 150000 22.39 (+0.29)          Paul Dano (PDANO) 25000 56.78 (-0.16)          Paul Bettany (PBETT) 25000 132.09 (-0.33)          Benedict Wong (BWONG) 25000 178.63 (+1.50)          Benedict Wong (BWONG) 25000 178.63 (+1.50)          Bad Lieutenant: Tokyo (BADLT) 2 4.47 (+0.30)          Bad Lieutenant: Tokyo (BADLT) 2 4.47 (+0.30)          Evil Genius (EVILG) 2 5.26 (+0.40)          Evil Genius (EVILG) 2 5.26 (+0.40)          Wicker (WCKER) 3 8.55 (+0.13)          Wicker (WCKER) 3 8.55 (+0.13)          Sleepover (SLEPO) 3 24.85 (-0.50)          Sleepover (SLEPO) 3 24.85 (-0.50)          Patty Jenkins (PJENK) 25000 96.40 (-0.25)          The Mosquito Bowl (MSQTB) 3 5.10 (+0.07)          The Mosquito Bowl (MSQTB) 3 5.10 (+0.07)          The Further Mis-Adventures of Cl (TAOCB) 3 16.93 (+0.43)          The Further Mis-Adventures of Cl (TAOCB) 3 16.93 (+0.43)