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Whisper Numbers: The Twilight Saga set to Eclipse the box office.

Two new films with built-in audiences open mid-week as the box office head into the Independence Day holiday weekend.  The phenomenon The Twilight Saga returns with its third entry Eclipse [TWLI3].   The sequel has already set a new midnight record at $30+ million on its way to a first day total of $68.5 million, which also becomes a box office record for Wednesday.  There was no doubt the vampire vs. werewolf romance would be highly anticipated by “Twihards”.  The question now is whether Eclipse will turn out to be front-loaded.  Summit has given Eclipse the widest release ever at 4416 theaters.  Good word of mouth should drive additional business over the holiday weekend.  Team Edward and Team Jacob together are poised to haul in $95 million over the 4-day weekend for a 6-day total around $185 million.

Even though Toy Story 3 [TOYS3] will give up the box office crown after two weeks, the Pixar animated sequel should remain the number one option for a broad segment of moviegoers.  The holiday weekend gives them a chance to check out the beloved characters for the last time on screen.  Toy Story 3 looks to bank another $40 million.

M. Night Shylamalan [MNSHY] has adapted the anime series “Avatar: The Last Airbender” into the live-action The Last Airbender [BENDR].  The PG-rated fantasy is riding in on a wave of bad publicity from casting White actors in Asian roles to the late conversion to 3D.  The film is likely to only appeal to families with young children as the terrible reviews may even turn off the hardcore fans.  Swooping into 3169 theaters, The Last Airbender could gather $32 million over the 4-day weekend for a 6-day total around $42 million.

Adam Sandler [ASAND] and gang have not grown up and moviegoers love them for it.  Grown Ups [GRWUP] should bring families together over the holiday weekend to display around $24 million worth of box office fireworks.

The mild opening of Knight and Day [KNDAY] demonstrated moviegoers are over Tom Cruise [TCRUI].  The action romance may settle for $12 million over the 4-day weekend.

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.



Tag(s): TWLI3, TOYS3, MNSHY, BENDR, ASAND, GRWUP, KNDAY, TCRUI

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, July 1, 2010 @ 02:19 PM 3708 views

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b4bad
Friday, July 2 at 07:33 AM Pacific
Thursday estimates put it to $16M ... source : http://www.deadline.com/2010/07/thursday-box-office-eclipse-25m-the-last-airbender-16m-toy-story-3-8m/



GOAT (TGOAT) 150000 69.66 (-1.21)          GOAT (TGOAT) 150000 69.66 (-1.21)          Masters of the Universe (HEMAN) 637 102.61 (0.00)          The Optimist (OPTMS) 150000 1.85 (-0.03)          Desert Warrior (DSRTW) 150000 0.51 (+0.11)          Teyana Taylor (TETAY) 25000 29.21 (-0.12)          Idiotka (IDOTK) 150000 0.87 (-0.13)          A Prayer for the Dying (APFTD) 1 1.02 (0.00)          Camila Mendes (CMEND) 25000 1.36 (+0.24)          Rush Hour 4 (RUSH4) 24999 20.18 (+0.02)          Panda Plan 2: The Magical Tribe (PPLA2) 99 1.22 (+0.22)          Crime 101 (CRIM1) 34116 28.92 (+2.93)          Desert Warrior (DSRTW) 150000 0.51 (+0.11)          Paranormal Activity 8 (PNAC8) 25000 23.10 (-2.88)          RJ Cyler (RCYLE) 25000 25.25 (+0.75)          Star Wars: Starfighter (SWAR4) 20000 230.85 (-0.56)          Desert Warrior (DSRTW) 150000 0.51 (+0.11)          Paranormal Activity 8 (PNAC8) 25000 23.10 (-2.88)          Star Wars: Starfighter (SWAR4) 150000 230.85 (-0.56)          Owen Wilson (OWILS) 25000 22.80 (+1.09)          Owen Wilson (OWILS) 25000 22.80 (+1.09)          Patton Oswalt (POSWA) 25000 60.78 (0.00)          Aladdin 2 (ALAD2) 100000 26.82 (-0.10)          Paranormal Activity 8 (PNAC8) 49999 23.10 (-2.88)          A Tree is Blue (ATBLU) 74999 5.20 (+0.47)          Jennifer Hudson (JHUDS) 25000 67.64 (+0.50)          Myha'la Herrold (MHERR) 25000 9.45 (+0.30)          GOAT (TGOAT) 150000 69.66 (-1.21)          Justin Long (JLONG) 25000 38.24 (-0.50)          Bella Thorne (BTHOR) 795 17.44 (+0.10)          Desert Warrior (DSRTW) 150000 0.51 (+0.11)          Ben Kingsley (BKING) 25000 17.86 (-0.30)          Ben Kingsley (BKING) 25000 17.86 (-0.30)          Ben Kingsley (BKING) 25000 17.86 (-0.30)          Emma Laird (ELAIR) 25000 20.32 (-0.75)          RJ Cyler (RCYLE) 25000 25.25 (+0.75)          RJ Cyler (RCYLE) 25000 25.25 (+0.75)          Owen Wilson (OWILS) 25000 22.80 (+1.09)          Owen Wilson (OWILS) 25000 22.80 (+1.09)          Cary Elwes (CELWE) 25000 39.44 (+0.12)          Colman Domingo (CDOMI) 25000 60.67 (+1.19)          Colman Domingo (CDOMI) 25000 60.67 (+1.19)          Panda Plan 2: The Magical Tribe (PPLA2) 150000 1.22 (+0.22)          Bill Skarsgard (BSKAR) 25000 23.29 (+1.06)          Bill Skarsgard (BSKAR) 25000 23.29 (+1.06)          Al Pacino (APACI) 25000 39.54 (-0.25)          GOAT (TGOAT) 110000 69.66 (-1.21)          Justin Long (JLONG) 25000 38.24 (-0.50)          Justin Long (JLONG) 25000 38.24 (-0.50)          Paranormal Activity 8 (PNAC8) 1 23.10 (-2.88)