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Whisper Numbers: The Twilight Saga set to Eclipse the box office.

Two new films with built-in audiences open mid-week as the box office head into the Independence Day holiday weekend.  The phenomenon The Twilight Saga returns with its third entry Eclipse [TWLI3].   The sequel has already set a new midnight record at $30+ million on its way to a first day total of $68.5 million, which also becomes a box office record for Wednesday.  There was no doubt the vampire vs. werewolf romance would be highly anticipated by “Twihards”.  The question now is whether Eclipse will turn out to be front-loaded.  Summit has given Eclipse the widest release ever at 4416 theaters.  Good word of mouth should drive additional business over the holiday weekend.  Team Edward and Team Jacob together are poised to haul in $95 million over the 4-day weekend for a 6-day total around $185 million.

Even though Toy Story 3 [TOYS3] will give up the box office crown after two weeks, the Pixar animated sequel should remain the number one option for a broad segment of moviegoers.  The holiday weekend gives them a chance to check out the beloved characters for the last time on screen.  Toy Story 3 looks to bank another $40 million.

M. Night Shylamalan [MNSHY] has adapted the anime series “Avatar: The Last Airbender” into the live-action The Last Airbender [BENDR].  The PG-rated fantasy is riding in on a wave of bad publicity from casting White actors in Asian roles to the late conversion to 3D.  The film is likely to only appeal to families with young children as the terrible reviews may even turn off the hardcore fans.  Swooping into 3169 theaters, The Last Airbender could gather $32 million over the 4-day weekend for a 6-day total around $42 million.

Adam Sandler [ASAND] and gang have not grown up and moviegoers love them for it.  Grown Ups [GRWUP] should bring families together over the holiday weekend to display around $24 million worth of box office fireworks.

The mild opening of Knight and Day [KNDAY] demonstrated moviegoers are over Tom Cruise [TCRUI].  The action romance may settle for $12 million over the 4-day weekend.

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.



Tag(s): TWLI3, TOYS3, MNSHY, BENDR, ASAND, GRWUP, KNDAY, TCRUI

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, July 1, 2010 @ 02:19 PM 3743 views

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b4bad
Friday, July 2 at 07:33 AM Pacific
Thursday estimates put it to $16M ... source : http://www.deadline.com/2010/07/thursday-box-office-eclipse-25m-the-last-airbender-16m-toy-story-3-8m/



The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PRAD2) 5000 209.27 (+1.20)          Big Thunder Mountain (BTMTN) 99000 21.47 (+1.84)          Big Thunder Mountain (BTMTN) 49999 21.47 (+1.84)          One Spoon of Chocolate (OSOCH) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          Heart Eyes 2 (HRTE2) 150000 20.00 (0.00)          The Gauntlet (GNTLT) 10000 37.10 (-0.03)          Jason Momoa (JMOMO) 6250 178.68 (+1.87)          Project Hail Mary - Opening Week (PRJHM.OW) 12000 76.96 (+0.10)          Ray Gunn (RAYGN) 10000 6.80 (-0.09)          The Weight (THEWT) 150000 6.96 (+0.99)          The Memory Police (TMEMP) 150000 5.33 (+0.32)          Big Thunder Mountain (BTMTN) 150000 21.47 (+1.84)          The Memory Police (TMEMP) 150000 5.33 (+0.32)          The Memory Police (TMEMP) 150000 5.33 (+0.32)          The Memory Police (TMEMP) 150000 5.33 (+0.32)          Varanasi (VARAN) 150000 11.28 (+0.31)          Varanasi (VARAN) 150000 11.28 (+0.31)          Wolf Creek Legacy (WCRE2) 150000 17.31 (-0.85)          Wolf Creek Legacy (WCRE2) 150000 17.31 (-0.85)          Heart Eyes 2 (HRTE2) 150000 20.00 (0.00)          Alana Haim (AHAIM) 1 8.24 (-0.05)          The Bride! (BRIDE) 150000 23.47 (-0.25)          Vicky Krieps (VKRIE) 25000 0.63 (+0.03)          One Spoon of Chocolate (OSOCH) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          Dynamic Duo (DYDUO) 150000 101.09 (-2.06)          Heart Eyes 2 (HRTE2) 150000 20.00 (0.00)          The Weight (THEWT) 150000 6.96 (+0.99)          Richard Ayoade (RAYOA) 25000 32.78 (+1.16)          The Weight (THEWT) 150000 6.96 (+0.99)          The Super Mario Galaxy Movie (MARI2) 150000 495.05 (-0.51)          Heart Eyes 2 (HRTE2) 150000 20.00 (0.00)          The Super Mario Galaxy Movie H$1 (MARI2.PU) 25000 1.75 (-0.25)          Outer Dark (OTDRK) 1000 7.46 (-0.06)          Animal Farm (AFARM) 10000 16.40 (+0.02)          The Drama H$15 Put (TDRAM.PU) 25000 1.49 (-0.51)          Monopoly (MONOP) 150000 9.35 (+0.08)          Shaun The Sheep: The Beast Of Mo (SHEP3) 1077 11.11 (-0.48)          Fantasy Life (FNTLF) 10000 0.27 (0.00)          Marisa Abela (MABEL) 20000 8.92 (-0.10)          James Marsden (JMARS) 25000 159.89 (+1.00)          James Marsden (JMARS) 25000 159.89 (+1.00)          Marisa Abela (MABEL) 20000 8.92 (-0.10)          They Will Kill You (TWKYU) 1000 20.91 (-0.26)          Heart Eyes 2 (HRTE2) 150000 20.00 (0.00)          John Wick: Chapter 5 (WICK5) 422 103.18 (-0.63)          Ready or Not 2: Here I Come (RONO2) 1000 26.24 (-0.16)          One Spoon of Chocolate (OSOCH) 150000 2.00 (0.00)          Ben Schwartz (BSCHW) 25000 142.94 (+1.33)          Heart Eyes 2 (HRTE2) 150000 20.00 (0.00)          The Pout-pout Fish (POUTF) 1000 1.87 (+0.07)