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Whisper Numbers: The Twilight Saga set to Eclipse the box office.

Two new films with built-in audiences open mid-week as the box office head into the Independence Day holiday weekend.  The phenomenon The Twilight Saga returns with its third entry Eclipse [TWLI3].   The sequel has already set a new midnight record at $30+ million on its way to a first day total of $68.5 million, which also becomes a box office record for Wednesday.  There was no doubt the vampire vs. werewolf romance would be highly anticipated by “Twihards”.  The question now is whether Eclipse will turn out to be front-loaded.  Summit has given Eclipse the widest release ever at 4416 theaters.  Good word of mouth should drive additional business over the holiday weekend.  Team Edward and Team Jacob together are poised to haul in $95 million over the 4-day weekend for a 6-day total around $185 million.

Even though Toy Story 3 [TOYS3] will give up the box office crown after two weeks, the Pixar animated sequel should remain the number one option for a broad segment of moviegoers.  The holiday weekend gives them a chance to check out the beloved characters for the last time on screen.  Toy Story 3 looks to bank another $40 million.

M. Night Shylamalan [MNSHY] has adapted the anime series “Avatar: The Last Airbender” into the live-action The Last Airbender [BENDR].  The PG-rated fantasy is riding in on a wave of bad publicity from casting White actors in Asian roles to the late conversion to 3D.  The film is likely to only appeal to families with young children as the terrible reviews may even turn off the hardcore fans.  Swooping into 3169 theaters, The Last Airbender could gather $32 million over the 4-day weekend for a 6-day total around $42 million.

Adam Sandler [ASAND] and gang have not grown up and moviegoers love them for it.  Grown Ups [GRWUP] should bring families together over the holiday weekend to display around $24 million worth of box office fireworks.

The mild opening of Knight and Day [KNDAY] demonstrated moviegoers are over Tom Cruise [TCRUI].  The action romance may settle for $12 million over the 4-day weekend.

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.



Tag(s): TWLI3, TOYS3, MNSHY, BENDR, ASAND, GRWUP, KNDAY, TCRUI

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, July 1, 2010 @ 02:19 PM 3671 views

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b4bad
Friday, July 2 at 07:33 AM Pacific
Thursday estimates put it to $16M ... source : http://www.deadline.com/2010/07/thursday-box-office-eclipse-25m-the-last-airbender-16m-toy-story-3-8m/



Fellowship (FELWS) 150000 14.35 (-0.65)          Jumanji sequel (JUMN3) 149999 152.02 (+0.44)          Dust Bunny (DUSTB) 150000 2.64 (0.00)          Primate (PRIMT) 77777 19.60 (+0.04)          Idris Elba (IELBA) 25000 112.88 (-0.33)          Song Sung Blue - Opening Weekend (SSBLU.OW) 100000 11.65 (-0.10)          Song Sung Blue - Opening Weekend (SSBLU.OW) 100000 11.65 (-0.10)          Fellowship (FELWS) 150000 14.35 (-0.65)          Avatar: Fire and Ash H$125 Put (AVAT3.PU) 25000 4.75 (+0.31)          Wicked: For Good $315M Blockbust (WCKD2.BW) 25000 7.77 (+0.06)          Love is Not the Answer (LINTA) 20071 6.09 (+1.28)          Split Fiction (SPFIC) 150000 42.06 (-1.35)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4.OW) 100000 18.78 (+0.10)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4.OW) 100000 18.78 (+0.10)          The Chaperones (CHAPR) 150000 10.21 (+0.50)          The Chaperones (CHAPR) 150000 10.21 (+0.50)          Babies (BBIES) 150000 12.36 (-1.29)          Alone Together (ALTGT) 500 4.08 (+0.36)          A Great Awakening (AGAWK) 500 10.55 (+1.03)          Love is Not the Answer (LINTA) 500 6.09 (+1.28)          Anaconda (ANAC3) 500 70.39 (-0.59)          The Bride! (BRIDE) 10000 54.15 (-0.06)          Fellowship (FELWS) 150000 14.35 (-0.65)          Avatar: Fire and Ash - Opening W (AVAT3.OW) 100000 110.73 (-1.01)          Song Sung Blue (SSBLU) 24999 36.73 (+0.01)          Fellowship (FELWS) 149997 14.35 (-0.65)          Avatar: Fire and Ash (AVAT3) 50000 437.87 (-1.29)          The Breadwinner (BREDW) 150000 22.94 (-0.87)          Cocomelon the Movie (COMEL) 14090 53.36 (-0.10)          Split Fiction (SPFIC) 150000 42.06 (-1.35)          Split Fiction (SPFIC) 150000 42.06 (-1.35)          Love is Not the Answer (LINTA) 149999 6.09 (+1.28)          Sydney Sweeney (SSWEE) 19000 30.19 (+0.09)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4) 25000 64.45 (-0.74)          Eleven Days (11DAY) 150000 14.24 (+1.06)          Strings aka Help (STRNS) 1000 15.09 (0.00)          Avatar: Fire and Ash (AVAT3) 25000 437.87 (-1.29)          The Mummy 4 (MUMY5) 109533 71.18 (+0.44)          David (DAVID) 25000 72.22 (-1.60)          The Young People (TYPEP) 1 19.04 (-0.02)          A Great Awakening (AGAWK) 50000 10.55 (+1.03)          The Goonies 2 (GONI2) 1 66.72 (-0.09)          Babies (BBIES) 150000 12.36 (-1.29)          The Goonies 2 (GONI2) 1 66.72 (-0.09)          David (DAVID) 150000 72.22 (-1.60)          Starship Troopers (STRPR) 1 49.18 (-0.07)          The Bride! (BRIDE) 12500 54.15 (-0.06)          Starship Troopers (STRPR) 1 49.18 (-0.07)          Avatar: Fire and Ash H$125 Call (AVAT3.CA) 25000 1.69 (-0.24)          Avatar: Fire and Ash H$125 Call (AVAT3.CA) 25000 1.69 (-0.24)