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Whisper Numbers: The Twilight Saga set to Eclipse the box office.

Two new films with built-in audiences open mid-week as the box office head into the Independence Day holiday weekend.  The phenomenon The Twilight Saga returns with its third entry Eclipse [TWLI3].   The sequel has already set a new midnight record at $30+ million on its way to a first day total of $68.5 million, which also becomes a box office record for Wednesday.  There was no doubt the vampire vs. werewolf romance would be highly anticipated by “Twihards”.  The question now is whether Eclipse will turn out to be front-loaded.  Summit has given Eclipse the widest release ever at 4416 theaters.  Good word of mouth should drive additional business over the holiday weekend.  Team Edward and Team Jacob together are poised to haul in $95 million over the 4-day weekend for a 6-day total around $185 million.

Even though Toy Story 3 [TOYS3] will give up the box office crown after two weeks, the Pixar animated sequel should remain the number one option for a broad segment of moviegoers.  The holiday weekend gives them a chance to check out the beloved characters for the last time on screen.  Toy Story 3 looks to bank another $40 million.

M. Night Shylamalan [MNSHY] has adapted the anime series “Avatar: The Last Airbender” into the live-action The Last Airbender [BENDR].  The PG-rated fantasy is riding in on a wave of bad publicity from casting White actors in Asian roles to the late conversion to 3D.  The film is likely to only appeal to families with young children as the terrible reviews may even turn off the hardcore fans.  Swooping into 3169 theaters, The Last Airbender could gather $32 million over the 4-day weekend for a 6-day total around $42 million.

Adam Sandler [ASAND] and gang have not grown up and moviegoers love them for it.  Grown Ups [GRWUP] should bring families together over the holiday weekend to display around $24 million worth of box office fireworks.

The mild opening of Knight and Day [KNDAY] demonstrated moviegoers are over Tom Cruise [TCRUI].  The action romance may settle for $12 million over the 4-day weekend.

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.



Tag(s): TWLI3, TOYS3, MNSHY, BENDR, ASAND, GRWUP, KNDAY, TCRUI

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, July 1, 2010 @ 02:19 PM 3414 views

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b4bad
Friday, July 2 at 07:33 AM Pacific
Thursday estimates put it to $16M ... source : http://www.deadline.com/2010/07/thursday-box-office-eclipse-25m-the-last-airbender-16m-toy-story-3-8m/



Kingdom of the Planet of the Ape (APES4) 102489 140.07 (-0.43)          Last Breath (LBRTH) 80324 15.94 (-0.05)          Emilia Perez (EMILP) 2937 2.80 (+0.01)          The Last Showgirl (TLSHG) 150000 5.36 (-0.05)          Minecraft (MINEC) 50000 97.83 (-0.01)          Gabby's Dollhouse: The Movie (GABYD) 150000 24.11 (-2.62)          OVERLORD: The Sacred Kingdom (OLTSK) 150000 9.08 (+0.42)          After Exile (AFEXL) 150000 0.07 (-0.01)          Reagan (REAGN) 150000 9.84 (-0.67)          Reagan (REAGN) 150000 9.84 (-0.67)          War Pigs (WARPG) 150000 0.03 (-0.02)          Bambi (BAMBI) 53823 34.51 (-0.11)          Kalki 2898 A.D. (KALKI) 71755 7.66 (+0.08)          June Squibb (JSQUI) 2500 61.46 (-0.02)          Gabby's Dollhouse: The Movie (GABYD) 150000 24.11 (-2.62)          Anora (ANORA) 150000 6.99 (+0.42)          Anora (ANORA) 150000 6.99 (+0.42)          Babes (BABS) 150000 2.97 (-0.05)          Gladiator II aka Gladiator 2 (GLAD2) 100000 173.54 (+0.62)          Gladiator II aka Gladiator 2 (GLAD2) 150000 173.54 (+0.62)          Kalki 2898 A.D. (KALKI) 150000 7.66 (+0.08)          Not Another Church Movie (NACM) 150000 1.60 (-0.01)          Kingdom of the Planet of the Ape (APES4) 50000 140.07 (-0.43)          Bambi (BAMBI) 9670 34.51 (-0.11)          Fantastic Four (FANF2) 50000 163.45 (+0.31)          Poolman (POOLM) 50000 0.22 (0.00)          Emilia Perez (EMILP) 137000 2.80 (+0.01)          Nick Robinson (NROBI) 10000 20.59 (-0.17)          Fantastic Four (FANF2) 50000 163.45 (+0.31)          Fantastic Four (FANF2) 50000 163.45 (+0.31)          Gabby's Dollhouse: The Movie (GABYD) 1000 24.11 (-2.62)          Catching Fire: The Story of Anit (CFSAP) 150000 0.40 (-0.03)          Bambi (BAMBI) 86507 34.51 (-0.11)          Bambi (BAMBI) 10000 34.51 (-0.11)          Untitled M. Night Shyamalan aka (GDGRD) 50000 24.26 (-0.02)          Star Trek Origin Story (TREK4) 50000 72.73 (-0.13)          In a Violent Nature (IAVNT) 150000 6.95 (+0.26)          Ezra (INAPB) 150000 6.98 (+0.48)          Flight Risk (FLTRS) 441 26.58 (+0.23)          Jurassic World Event Film (JURA7) 150000 259.66 (+0.25)          Haikyu!! The Dumpster Battle (HAIKY) 150000 10.96 (+0.61)          Hit Man (HTMAN) 50000 0.89 (-0.02)          Gabby's Dollhouse: The Movie (GABYD) 150000 24.11 (-2.62)          Gabby's Dollhouse: The Movie (GABYD) 150000 24.11 (-2.62)          Eternity (ETERN) 150000 18.56 (+0.41)          Moana 2 (MOAN2) 150000 182.34 (-0.32)          Fuze (FUZE) 150000 16.77 (-0.26)          OVERLORD: The Sacred Kingdom (OLTSK) 150000 9.08 (+0.42)          Bambi (BAMBI) 150000 34.51 (-0.11)          Bambi (BAMBI) 150000 34.51 (-0.11)