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Whisper Numbers: The Twilight Saga set to Eclipse the box office.

Two new films with built-in audiences open mid-week as the box office head into the Independence Day holiday weekend.  The phenomenon The Twilight Saga returns with its third entry Eclipse [TWLI3].   The sequel has already set a new midnight record at $30+ million on its way to a first day total of $68.5 million, which also becomes a box office record for Wednesday.  There was no doubt the vampire vs. werewolf romance would be highly anticipated by “Twihards”.  The question now is whether Eclipse will turn out to be front-loaded.  Summit has given Eclipse the widest release ever at 4416 theaters.  Good word of mouth should drive additional business over the holiday weekend.  Team Edward and Team Jacob together are poised to haul in $95 million over the 4-day weekend for a 6-day total around $185 million.

Even though Toy Story 3 [TOYS3] will give up the box office crown after two weeks, the Pixar animated sequel should remain the number one option for a broad segment of moviegoers.  The holiday weekend gives them a chance to check out the beloved characters for the last time on screen.  Toy Story 3 looks to bank another $40 million.

M. Night Shylamalan [MNSHY] has adapted the anime series “Avatar: The Last Airbender” into the live-action The Last Airbender [BENDR].  The PG-rated fantasy is riding in on a wave of bad publicity from casting White actors in Asian roles to the late conversion to 3D.  The film is likely to only appeal to families with young children as the terrible reviews may even turn off the hardcore fans.  Swooping into 3169 theaters, The Last Airbender could gather $32 million over the 4-day weekend for a 6-day total around $42 million.

Adam Sandler [ASAND] and gang have not grown up and moviegoers love them for it.  Grown Ups [GRWUP] should bring families together over the holiday weekend to display around $24 million worth of box office fireworks.

The mild opening of Knight and Day [KNDAY] demonstrated moviegoers are over Tom Cruise [TCRUI].  The action romance may settle for $12 million over the 4-day weekend.

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.



Tag(s): TWLI3, TOYS3, MNSHY, BENDR, ASAND, GRWUP, KNDAY, TCRUI

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, July 1, 2010 @ 02:19 PM 3846 views

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b4bad
Friday, July 2 at 07:33 AM Pacific
Thursday estimates put it to $16M ... source : http://www.deadline.com/2010/07/thursday-box-office-eclipse-25m-the-last-airbender-16m-toy-story-3-8m/



The Cat in the Hat (TCATH) 9607 92.37 (-0.06)          Damian Lewis (DLEWI) 25000 32.40 (+0.12)          The Lord of the Rings: The Hunt (LOTR5) 20000 183.52 (+2.78)          Aubrey Plaza (APLAZ) 25000 7.98 (+0.05)          Chris Messina (CMESS) 25000 23.50 (+0.13)          Supergirl (SUPGR) 25000 139.08 (-3.72)          Supergirl (SUPGR) 30000 139.08 (-3.72)          The Social Reckoning (SOCI2) 43360 67.20 (+0.19)          Minions & Monsters - Opening (MNIO3.OW) 10385 75.00 (0.00)          Backrooms (BACRM) 50000 165.05 (-0.89)          Supergirl (SUPGR) 120000 139.08 (-3.72)          Andrew Scott (ANSCO) 25000 37.24 (0.00)          Toy Story 5 (TOYS5) 1959 407.89 (+0.12)          Lice (LICE) 150000 4.00 (0.00)          Spider-Man: Brand New Day (SPID9) 1000 418.05 (+2.20)          Lilo & Stitch 2 (LILS2) 62605 268.03 (-0.26)          Minions & Monsters - Opening (MNIO3.OW) 80000 75.00 (0.00)          Jason Statham Stole My Bike (JSSMB) 140000 25.11 (+0.19)          Minions & Monsters H$75 Call (MNIO3.CA) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Lice (LICE) 150000 4.00 (0.00)          The Last Train From Hiroshima (TLTFH) 150000 23.36 (-0.01)          The Exorcist Film Directed by Mi (TEXO2) 25000 51.75 (0.00)          The Exorcist Film Directed by Mi (TEXO2) 25000 51.75 (0.00)          Minions & Monsters - Opening (MNIO3.OW) 35000 75.00 (0.00)          Young Washington - Opening Weeke (YWASH.OW) 25000 10.00 (0.00)          Young Washington H$10 Put (YWASH.PU) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Young Washington H$10 Call (YWASH.CA) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Lice (LICE) 150000 4.00 (0.00)          Minions & Monsters H$75 Put (MNIO3.PU) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Minions & Monsters H$75 Call (MNIO3.CA) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          The Chosen Season 6 (TCS61) 1 11.55 (-0.02)          Minions & Monsters H$75 Call (MNIO3.CA) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Young Washington H$10 Put (YWASH.PU) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Young Washington - Opening Weeke (YWASH.OW) 100000 10.00 (0.00)          Young Washington H$10 Call (YWASH.CA) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Minions & Monsters H$75 Put (MNIO3.PU) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Minions & Monsters - Opening (MNIO3.OW) 100000 75.00 (0.00)          Minions & Monsters H$75 Call (MNIO3.CA) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Minions & Monsters H$75 Call (MNIO3.CA) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Lice (LICE) 150000 4.00 (0.00)          Minions & Monsters - Opening (MNIO3.OW) 100000 75.00 (0.00)          Young Washington H$10 Call (YWASH.CA) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Minions & Monsters H$75 Call (MNIO3.CA) 25000 2.00 (0.00)          Young Washington - Opening Weeke (YWASH.OW) 100000 10.00 (0.00)          Gael Garcia Bernal (GGBER) 25000 43.60 (-0.33)          My Darling California (MDCAL) 83368 22.26 (-0.65)          The End of Oak Street (FLWVS) 150000 79.53 (+2.78)          Lice (LICE) 2475 4.00 (0.00)          Young Washington - Opening Weeke (YWASH.OW) 100000 10.00 (0.00)          Minions & Monsters - Opening (MNIO3.OW) 100000 75.00 (0.00)