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Whisper Numbers: Contagion looks to catch on at the box office.



The fall movie season commences with an all star cast populating the thriller Contagion [CONTG]. Audiences love disaster films about the end of humanity and one about a global pandemic of an unstoppable deadly virus should prove infectious with all demographics. The combined starpower of Matt Damon [MDAMO], Gwyneth Paltrow [GPALT], Jude Law [JLAW], Kate Winslet [KWINS] as well as director Steven Soderbergh [SSODE] should attract moviegoers looking for a quality film. Warner Bros. has effectively built up awareness and interest in the PG-13 rated film. Spreading into 3222 theaters, Contagion could claim about $22 million.

Tom Hardy [THARD] and Joel Edgerton [JEDGE] play brothers competing as MMA fighters in the PG-13 rated Warrior [WARIR]. The underdog sports drama has earned great reviews and Liongate sneaked the film last Sunday to generate buzz. However, Warrior remains a movie about  fighting and is unlikely to crossover outside the male crowd, at least not opening weekend. 2008’s Never Back Down bowed to $8.6 million, while 2009’s Fighting with Channing Tatum opened to $11 million. Warrior looks to do about the same business and punch out $11 million from 1869 locations.

Despite new competition from Contagion, the word of mouth hit The Help should still be able to earn another $10 million in its fifth weekend at the box office.

The Debt [TDEBT] outperformed expectations in its debut. Bringing out older adult moviegoers, the spy thriller should decline around 40% to $6 million.

Friend of Adam Sandler, Nick Swardson [NSWAR] stars in first lead role in Bucky Larson: Born to be a Star [BTBAS]. The R-rated comedy is unlikely to attract anyone but the hardcore young male fans of Happy Madison productions. The trailers and ad spots are more annoying than actually funny. Delayed for over a year and unspooling in just 1500 theaters, Bucky Larson may score just $3 million.

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.



Tag(s): CONTG, MDAMO, GPALT, JLAW, KWINS, SSODE, THARD, JEDGE, WARIR, TDEBT, NSWAR, BTBAS

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, September 8, 2011 @ 03:37 PM        2835 views


Recent Comments

Electricbassguy
Sunday, September 11 at 03:47 AM Pacific
$3m total at best for BTBAS. Who are the clowns who haven't shorted this load of Sandler?


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