There is no guaranteed gain on any kind of movie adjust b/c you have to play one way or the other. So it stands to reason that one position from long/short will take a loss and the other will gain whether it is a moviestock or an OW unless it is a wash (which hardly ever happens, but you could still position the moviestock as a post-adjust play).
If your point is about "smarter" money in OW, the smart money can be wrong.....nobody really blasted 5YEAR's chances last week.
And drift between OW and moviestock varies film to film, so no way to say there is more "value" in either investment type as it varies on a case by case basis and entirely depends on the position you want to play for perceived value.
Long way of saying....don't get your point, no offense.