HSX Forum

Playing & Trading Strategy

I've never really understood the September crash, but let me try to reason it out and you can tell me whether I'm full of ****

Posted by: stevie1der328 on Jul 06, 08:49 in response to RogerMore's post One I'd like to add - playing the players is also a factor.

SO as the summer progresses, people make loads of profits from tent pole blockbusters like Avengers and Spider-man as well as surprise breakout hits like Ted, Bridesmaids, and The Help.  They immediately reinvest their profits into future tentpole blockbusters like Avengers II.  Come September, all of a sudden traders don't have spare cash lying around to invest into fall and winter releases.  Easiest solution is to get rid of Avengers II which isn't even coming out until 2015.  Thus blockbusters tend to lose value as many traders get rid of them in favor of shorter term investments.  The only remaining question I have is why was it so widespread and fast last year.  I'm guessing a combination or people freeing cash, savvy traders piling on the downward spiral, and corrective "natural" market forces by the central algorithms of this game.

Please explain the strategy behind why someone would buy and hold SPID5 for over a year? elchan Jul 06, 07:21

there are way more part time players than there are regulars. buy and hold is an easy strategy for someone who either doesnt know better or islander Jul 06, 07:24

I often buy and hold the next 2 years tent-poles. Scorpion Jul 06, 07:36

When your port is huge, and you have cash laying around, why not buy as many stocks (short OR long) as you can..put the $ to work! {nm} Flash Jul 06, 07:39

But the dROI is so small to hold it for another year. Any actively managed fund would get at least 1% dROI. elchan Jul 06, 07:50

while 1% sure is desirable, you face a different problem when port grows too big. Oleg Max Jul 06, 07:56

I need to keep that in mind when I become a billionaire. ;-0 {nm} elchan Jul 06, 08:00

You don't need to be a billionaire. @ about half a billion you start running out of stuff to do with your excess cash. Scorpion Jul 06, 10:54

Yeah, I've made a billion so far this year. My average daily change is 0.06% {nm} RogerMore Jul 06, 08:27

my take: Oleg Max Jul 06, 07:40

But, mid 300s seems impossible at current pace, to me. I guess people are still holding on, until they see where SPID4 will actually land. elchan Jul 06, 07:45

it's a unique situation w/ SPID4, given that 3 days won't get a multiplier. SPID3 did 151mill that wknd in 2007.... Oleg Max Jul 06, 07:48

BOM link Oleg Max Jul 06, 07:48

Still even if SPID5 might go up to 350, we're still talking about a dROI about 0.2%! {nm} elchan Jul 06, 07:55

true, better than next to nothing in cash... {nm} Oleg Max Jul 06, 07:57

Sure I can see how it would be good to hold tent pole from IPO, but I'm saying for SPID5, now that we have an idea elchan Jul 06, 07:41

I guess my question should have been, "If I owned SPID5 now, would I hold it for another year?" ;-) elchan Jul 06, 07:59

One I'd like to add - playing the players is also a factor. RogerMore Jul 06, 08:40

I've never really understood the September crash, but let me try to reason it out and you can tell me whether I'm full of **** stevie1der328 Jul 06, 08:49

I think the lower opening weekends in September are a bigger factor in the crash. RogerMore Jul 06, 09:31

That's why I love HSXMetrics site. Great for spotting trends. Do a lot of people move their investments into TV, in the fall? elchan Jul 06, 09:38

The TV market isn't large enough to have a noticeable effect on the movie market, particularly with the 20,000 share limit. {nm} stevie1der328 Jul 06, 10:17

I'm with OlegMax and RogerMore, but time is a factor as well JohnTEQP Jul 08, 21:04

I'm a casual player...if I'm making at least a million a day and this game doesn't feel like a chore,then I'm happy :) {nm} tealfan Jul 06, 08:48

I'll say why I hold some things for a long time... LanceStorm22 Jul 08, 22:24





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