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I think the lower opening weekends in September are a bigger factor in the crash.

Posted by: RogerMore on Jul 06, 09:31 in response to stevie1der328's post I've never really understood the September crash, but let...

There's an excess of trader cash. This drives up tentpoles, but it also drives up the price of September/October openers.

Over Labor Day weekend, opening weekends suddenly drop off and traders remember that not everything opens to $30 million any more. They sell and maybe short. More traders follow, and it cascades into the temtpoles.

Often there's a similar, smaller crash in the spring - but not so much this year because there were several big hits like THVOW, SAFEH, HGAME, LORAX, 21JMP etc

I think too, trading drops off over September, because there aren't movies people are interested in, so playing a movie game is less fun for some.

It happens fast these days because traders are aware of these yearly patterns and are quick to react at the first sight of a downturn. Plus, more traders are using tools like PortMokey which make it easier to make the necessary trades quickly.

Please explain the strategy behind why someone would buy and hold SPID5 for over a year? elchan Jul 06, 07:21

there are way more part time players than there are regulars. buy and hold is an easy strategy for someone who either doesnt know better or islander Jul 06, 07:24

I often buy and hold the next 2 years tent-poles. Scorpion Jul 06, 07:36

When your port is huge, and you have cash laying around, why not buy as many stocks (short OR long) as you can..put the $ to work! {nm} Flash Jul 06, 07:39

But the dROI is so small to hold it for another year. Any actively managed fund would get at least 1% dROI. elchan Jul 06, 07:50

while 1% sure is desirable, you face a different problem when port grows too big. Oleg Max Jul 06, 07:56

I need to keep that in mind when I become a billionaire. ;-0 {nm} elchan Jul 06, 08:00

You don't need to be a billionaire. @ about half a billion you start running out of stuff to do with your excess cash. Scorpion Jul 06, 10:54

Yeah, I've made a billion so far this year. My average daily change is 0.06% {nm} RogerMore Jul 06, 08:27

my take: Oleg Max Jul 06, 07:40

But, mid 300s seems impossible at current pace, to me. I guess people are still holding on, until they see where SPID4 will actually land. elchan Jul 06, 07:45

it's a unique situation w/ SPID4, given that 3 days won't get a multiplier. SPID3 did 151mill that wknd in 2007.... Oleg Max Jul 06, 07:48